Fitch sees increased social instability in Nigeria with Tinubu win

Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in Africa’s most populous nation if Bola Tinubu, the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), wins the presidential election next year, according to Fitch Solutions, an arm of the global credit ratings agency.

Victory for Tinubu, who Fitch Solutions has predicted would win the election next February, would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.

Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that results in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.

“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians,” Fitch Solutions said in an October 26 report.

“In addition, Obi’s supporters – mostly young, urban voters – are likely to question the fairness of the electoral process, especially after recent polls have predicted a win for Obi.

“These dynamics are likely to engender political unrest following the February vote,” Fitch Solutions said.

As a result, Fitch Solutions revised down the Social Stability component of its proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 30.0 to 25.0 previously (scores out of 100; lower score implies higher risk). This brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI score from 46.3 to 45.0.

Nigeria heads into crunch polls next year with an economic crisis and rising insecurity weighing most on the minds of voters, according to several polls.

The polls have also tended to favour victory for Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party and a former governor of South Eastern state, Anambra.

Fitch however believes that recent polls are significantly overstating support for Peter Obi.

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“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents Bola Tinubu (All Progressives

Congress; APC) and Atiku Abubakar (People’s Democratic Party; PDP) were mostly based on responses gathered online.

“Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank, 2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters who are most likely to support Obi,” analysts at Fitch Solutions said.

“We also highlight that these polls suggest that a large share of voters remain undecided.”

Even if these surveys were accurate at a national level, Fitch Solution’s analysts were of the view that Obi’s lack of support in Nigeria’s Muslim-majority North would make it difficult for him to win next year’s election.

Indeed, the North is home to the majority of all voters and turnout in this part of the country tends to be relatively high, underscoring the importance of the Northern electorate.

According to Nigeria’s 1999 constitution, a candidate can only be elected if they both receive the majority of overall votes and over 25.0 percent of votes in at least 24 of the country’s 36 states.

Given that Obi’s Labour Party has limited infrastructure in the North, he will struggle to meet this second voting requirement, according to Fitch.

Indeed, the Labour Party is not even running candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives in many northern constituencies. Furthermore, the northern electorate historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. With Obi being a Christian from the South, increasing his voter share in the North will prove challenging.

North Will Be A Stumbling Block For Obi

Fitch Solutions expects the perceived lack of popularity in the north to be a stumbling block for Obi.

“While we believe Obi is unlikely to win the election, he will probably do well for a third- party candidate. Indeed, a third-party candidate has never reached more than 7.5 percent of votes in Nigeria.

“However, due to his frugal reputation and large social media following we expect Obi to get a higher share of the vote than previous third-party candidates,” the analysts said.

“As such, we believe that Obi’s popularity will most likely split the opposition vote, at the expense of the PDP,” they said.

The PDP’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar, is a Northerner and Fitch’s analysts believe that the party’s only route to victory is expanding its vote in the South West and North Central states, while retaining large majorities in the South South and South East.

Risks to Fitch’s outlook

While not their core view, factions within the APC could weigh on Tinubu’s popularity in Northern states, according to Fitch.

In addition, should public concerns about Tinubu’s health become more pronounced in the run-up to the election, his chances of winning will become smaller, the analysts noted.

There however remains a possibility that a three-way race results in no candidate passing the electoral threshold which would prompt a second round for the first time in Nigerian history, likely heightening political instability.