Dangote supply pause pushes depot petrol price to N1,250

Wholesale petrol prices at Nigeria’s private depots have pushed higher for a second straight week, averaging around N1,250 a litre, up from roughly N1,200 last week, as an extended halt in loading at Dangote Petroleum Refinery collides with a rally in global crude and a market adjusting to the refinery’s shift to dollar-based transactions.

A survey by Petroleumprice.ng of major depots on Monday found loading prices clustering between N1,248 and N1,270 a litre across Lagos, Port Harcourt, Warri and Calabar, a further step up from last week’s levels.

The suspension of loading at Dangote’s refinery has now stretched into a new week, forcing marketers to lean more heavily on private depots for supply. That shift has clogged truck routes around several depot corridors, as buyers scramble to lock in volumes with little clarity on when the refinery will resume normal operations.

Traders say the loading halt is the clearest cause of the latest price moves, pushing more buyers toward depots amid uncertainty over the refinery’s restart timeline. They also point to the refinery’s changing dollar-denominated payment structure as a factor feeding into depot pricing, though how much weight it carries relative to the supply squeeze remains debated.

That domestic pressure is compounding with a firmer international market. Brent crude touched $90 a barrel in Asian trading Monday before pulling back, still up roughly 2 percent on the day. West Texas Intermediate moved in step after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran drew retaliation against American facilities and stoked threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The jump in crude has lifted replacement-cost expectations, adding to the upward pull from the domestic supply squeeze.

Lagos, the country’s biggest fuel distribution hub, has broadly settled on N1,250 a litre. Aiteo, Nipco, Integrated, Ascon, African Terminal and Sahara all loaded at that price, while Aipec came in slightly lower at N1,248.

Port Harcourt posted the steepest numbers. Matrix, Bulk Strategic and Avidor sold at N1,270, with Liquid Bulk and Nipco close behind at N1,268. Masters priced at N1,265, and Bulk Strategic later trimmed its price to match.

 

Warri saw prices climb through the day: Rainoil sold at N1,270, while Matrix opened at N1,250 before revising upward to N1,260.

 

In Calabar, Sobaz priced petrol at N1,255 a litre and Hong Petroleum at N1,270, tracking the broader pattern across the South-South region.

 

Chinedu Ukadike, national publicity secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), noted that import licences recently granted to major marketers, meant to keep domestic fuel prices in check, have not delivered the moderating effect regulators expected.

 

He said cargoes arriving under those licences have often arrived at a higher cost and of lower quality than anticipated, undercutting the policy’s purpose.

 

He urged the federal government to address price volatility, the licensing regime and the shift toward dollar-denominated sales transparently, calling on the industry regulator, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), to take the lead.

 

Ukadike also linked rising imports to strain on the naira, with the exchange rate drifting toward N1,400 to the dollar, and urged Abuja to press Dangote Refinery to keep selling crude in naira to help hold down pump prices.

 

He cited international PLATTS benchmark pricing for imported fuel as running roughly 20 percent above what Dangote charges, making cargoes sourced from places like Lomé a weaker option that only adds to foreign-exchange demand.

 

He further criticised the loose, uncoordinated issuance of import licences, warning it risks pushing pump prices higher rather than restraining them, and said Nigeria would be better served by sustaining domestic refining and naira-based crude supply than by leaning on costly imports.