The average cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice for a Nigerian family of five rose by 19.6 percent within four months largely driven by a spike in tomatoes and pepper prices, according to a new Jollof Index report.
The report, titled ‘Unbounded Set’ by SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused geopolitical research and strategic communications consulting firm, shows that the cost of preparing a pot of the popular Nigerian delicacy increased to N20,274 in June 2024 from N16,955 in March.
This means that a family of five that earned the old monthly minimum wage of N30,000 before it was increased to N70,000, would have spent 67.6 percent of the pay to cook a pot of jollof.
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But with the new wage if prices are stable, a pot of jollof could take 28.9 percent. Further analysis of the index shows that June’s cost is 396.1 percent higher from N4,087 in July 2016.
“The surge in Jollof rice was primarily driven by substantial price hikes in key ingredients, particularly tomatoes and peppers. Other essential components such as rice, turkey, beef and vegetable oil maintained their already high prices, further contributing to the overall cost increase,” the report said.
It said the spike in tomato cost is attributed to seasonal changes and a severe infestation of Tuta absoluta, a major tomato pest and that between March and June, the price of “Grade A” tomatoes skyrocketed from N50,000 to N100,000, with similar price hikes recorded for pepper.
“This crisis was further exacerbated by the Eid al-Fitr holiday in April, which disrupted the food supply chain.”
BusinessDay reported last month, that prices of fresh tomatoes – a key ingredient in making Nigerian jollof rice and different stews rose to an average price of N110,000 for a big basket at Mile 12 market of Lagos, as against between N40,000 and N50,000 sold in April and early May.
Experts linked the unprecedented increase in the price of tomatoes to seasonality because tomato is a vegetable that does not do well during rainy seasons and prices are expected to surge during the period.
There is also this issue of logistics that involves the high cost of transporting tomatoes from producing states to other parts of Nigeria as fuel prices and middlemen levies influence the market price.
“Due to the hot weather, farmers nowadays, for fear of incurring losses, will dare not plant tomatoes in February or March, because it will not grow,” Sani Danladi Yadakwari, chairman of a growers’ association said from Kano, Nigeria’s biggest tomatoes producing state.
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“By May, all the tomatoes produced in Nigeria have finished. We are now waiting for rain to start falling to plant the new tomato.” he said.
Using the Jollof Index, SBM illustrates how food prices have changed overtime. The data gathered monthly from 13 markets spread across the country’s six geopolitical zones is computed using the costs of the ingredients. It does not include December because of seasonal variations that cause price hikes.
The ingredients that make up the index are rice, groundnut oil, chicken or turkey, beef, seasoning, pepper, tomatoes, salt, and onions. While the index has treaded close to food inflation since collection began in 2016, it has provided a simple way of communicating the realities of inflation to the Nigerian public.
“The current situation is compounded by ongoing foreign exchange difficulties, which have increased costs for essential inputs such as pesticides and energy. Furthermore, transportation costs have skyrocketed due to higher fuel prices, and the importation of tomato seeds and pesticides remains dollar-dependent, further worsening the challenge,” authors of the Jollof index report said.
They added that Nigerians have shown remarkable adaptability in the face of these challenges with many resorting to using alternative ingredients, experimenting with substitutes such as carrot and cucumber stews to replace the traditional tomato-based recipes.
“However, these efforts have been hindered by a concurrent rise in the prices of these alternative food items.”
Folasade Yusuf, a Lagos-based pepper seller lamented that the hike in the price of tomatoes has significantly eroded her profit margins.
She said, “Most of my buyers stopped buying fresh pepper and tomatoes. Instead, they shifted to buying ground pepper and tinned tomatoes. So, my stock stays longer than usual before getting sold out, and since I can’t afford any spoilage, I now buy in smaller quantities and hardly make any profit unlike in the past.” The SBM report also highlighted that across the 13 markets, Onitsha, Anambra state experienced the highest percentage increase at 50.0 precent, with the cost of preparing jollof rice rising from N14,900 in March to N22,350 in June.
Balogun Market in Lagos recorded the lowest percentage increase at 2.3 percent, with prices rising from N17,300 to N17,700.
“The data clearly illustrates Nigeria’s worsening food inflation crisis, with all markets experiencing substantial price increases. The rising cost of preparing a staple dish like jollof rice highlights Nigerian families’ growing challenges in meeting their basic food needs,” the report said.
The Tinubu administration’s reforms such as the removal of petrol subsidy and naira devaluation, implemented in the second quarter of last year, increased the cost of living in Africa’s most populous nation.
The removal of the fuel subsidy tripled the petrol price to more than N600 from N184, causing public transportation providers such as buses, tricycles, and motorcycles to raise fares.
And the floating of the naira increased the official exchange rate from N463.38/$ on June 9, 2023 to N1,548.8/$ on Tuesday while the parallel market rate stood close to N1, 570/$.
SBM noted that the cost of preparing jollof rice using the official exchange rate started at $11.2 in March and experienced fluctuations over the quarter.
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“It increased to $14.4 in April, decreased to $13.3 in May, and rose again to $14.1 in June. This represents a total increase of 25.9 percent over the four months, reflecting the ongoing volatility and depreciation of the Nigerian naira concerning rising food prices.”
Nigeria’s headline inflation quickened for the 17th straight time to 33.95 percent in June, up from 34.19 percent in May, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Food inflation, which constitutes more than 50 percent of headline inflation, also increased to 40.53 percent from 40 percent.
Looking ahead, food inflation, the main driver, is expected to taper off because of the short-term federal government’s recent interventions, with a N2 trillion packages, analysts at Comercio Partners Research, said.
“Also, a 150-day duty-free import window has been approved, allowing tariff-free importation of maize, husked brown rice, wheat, and cowpeas through land and sea borders,” they added.
SBM recommends that addressing ongoing conflicts and transitioning to mechanised agriculture remain critical steps toward a sustainable solution.
“Inventions of necessity like cucumber stew and related substitutes, precautionary food retention, skipping meals, using productive hours to farm, sidelining middlemen through food-sharing groups, and other measures do not improve the situation. The planned protest with the grand purpose of reducing food prices shows the severity of the problem and the need for urgent solutions.”
