Climate crisis: Nigeria to face 21% rise in disease burden – Report

…Kaduna, seven others listed as the most climate-vulnerable states

Nigeria is projected to experience a 21% increase in disease burden due to the worsening impact of climate change on public health, according to a new report outlining the country’s growing health challenges.

The report, titled National Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment, was conducted by the Federal Ministry of Health in collaboration with the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), and Halcyon, between January and July 2024.

Insights from the report were presented during the Future of Health Conference, themed “From Evidence to Action: Building Resilience at the Climate-Health Nexus,” organised by Nigeria Health Watch on Thursday in Abuja.

The report warns that the risks and impact of climate change on the health sector are projected to worsen in terms of severity, duration and magnitude across all geographic areas of Nigeria.

“Under all scenarios and despite any efforts, the country’s risk to climate cahnge is increasing and will continue to increase. These increased risks will create a situation that will impact healthcare capacity, increase the vulnerability of communities and create conditions more conducive to disease growth”, the report stated.

The assessment forecasts a rise in waterborne diseases and an increase in cases of some neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), including Buruli ulcer, Guinea worm, and trypanosomiasis. Additionally, climate-related diarrhoea among children under five is expected to account for 9.8% of all diarrhoea cases.

The report also projects increases in non-communicable diseases, predicting: Cardiovascular diseases to rise to 4.5 million cases by 2030; Diabetes cases to grow to 450,000 by 2030 due to rising temperatures; and high blood pressure to increase from 900,000 in 2020 to 1.6 million by 2030.

Mental health disorders linked to climate stress are also expected to increase, with cases rising from 2.6 million in 2020 to over 3.1 million. Neurological disorders and self-harm are likewise forecast to become more prevalent.

Respiratory diseases, such as asthma and severe acute respiratory illness, are expected to rise marginally, while tuberculosis cases are projected to increase from 41,000 to 52,000.

Vector-borne diseases, including malaria and yellow fever, are also predicted to escalate with changing environmental conditions.

The report highlights that temperatures across Nigeria are expected to rise by 1.0 to 1.1°C by 2050 under moderate climate scenarios, with an increase of at least 3.0°C under extreme scenarios. Heat-related deaths are projected to double, rising from 2.5 to 5 per 100,000 people per year by 2080.

Climate change will also increase rainfall, exposing an additional 800,000 people to the risk of flooding by 2030.

The V&A assessment identified the most climate-vulnerable states as Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa, Taraba, Bauchi, and Yobe. Other high-risk areas include parts of Niger, Kwara, southern Cross River, as well as Imo and Abia states.

However, the report emphasised that no state will remain unaffected by the impact of climate change.

Read also: Climate change and the growing health burden in Africa

Godwin Brooks, director of Climate Change and Health at the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, stated that the V&A findings are currently informing the development of Nigeria’s first Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP).

He explained that the assessment was carried out following the WHO Climate Change and Health V&A Assessment Guide, which provides a framework for evaluating current and future health risks, vulnerabilities, and resilience strategies.

Brooks noted that the V&A assessment offers baseline and future projections of how Nigeria’s health sector will be impacted by climate change, providing essential data to strengthen healthcare systems.

In her opening remarks, Vivianne Ihekweazu, managing director of Nigeria Health Watch, stressed that the conference theme was timely, as the impacts of climate change are already evident.

“Long gone are any debates about whether climate change is real and in Nigeria it is no longer abstract yet, we still have work to do changing attitudes that climate change is a result of some spiritual, divine or is a natural occurrence, as these misunderstandings delays the urgent actions needed to protect vulnerable populations”, she said.

Ihekweazu emphasised that climate change now serves as a major determinant of health outcomes, warning that without swift action, these impacts will worsen, placing additional strain on healthcare systems.

She called on the government to adopt integrated policy frameworks encompassing health, agriculture, environment, and energy sectors.

“We cannot wait for others to solve this problem for us. We must take the lead, leveraging our local community knowledge and addressing knowledge gaps at the grassroots”, she urged.

She also called on the private sector to innovate solutions to address complex challenges by leveraging technology, financial instruments, and other tools.