Africa to see mild growth in 2022 with low vaccination –Allianz

After being the slowest growing region in 2021, Africa will register mild growth in 2022 (+3.5 percent) as vaccination rates will remain very low (32 percent in the overall continent but only 4 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa), according to the Allianz Economic Outlook report

The report released Tuesday, says Africa should not look up, as GDP growth expectations in countries will be follows. Senegal (6.1 percent), Kenya (5.6 percent), Ivory Coast (5.5 percent), Ghana (5.4 percent), Egypt (4.6 percent), Mozambique (4.6 percent), Namibia (3.7 percent), Morocco (3.3 percent), Tunisia (3.2 percent), Gabon (3.2 percent), Algeria (2.4 percent), Nigeria (2.3 percent), Angola (2.2 percent) and South Africa (2.0 percent).

In 2022, oil exporters such as Angola and Algeria will continue to benefit from the commodity upcycle tailwind. On the other hand, amid rapidly rising inflation to double digits in most countries, monetary policy rates are expected to increase in Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa and Egypt. In an environment of continued sanitary uncertainty, this monetary tightening is expected to put a brake on growth.

In addition to rising energy prices, food inflation has soared to hardly bearable levels in Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Ghana.

The food security situation is likely to deteriorate in 2022 in southern and eastern Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia because of adverse climate events. The deteriorating security situation in Ethiopia entails significant risk of spillovers to the region, including migration flows to the Kenyan border.

Tunisia, Ghana, Mozambique, Kenya and South Africa are hot spots regarding debt sustainability. Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt and Burkina Faso will see current account deficits only improve slightly in 2022 after deteriorating in 2021.

Read also: Vaccine production seen helping Nigeria beyond COVID

Global growth should remain robust but uneven, with rising divergence between advanced and emerging market economies. Our 2022 GDP forecast remains broadly unchanged, with the Eurozone and the US expected to grow by +4.1 percent and +3.9 percent, respectively, while growth in China slows to +5.2 percent due to ongoing disruptions in the real estate sector and the government’s focus on financial stability.

China’s lowest contribution to global GDP growth since 2015 is likely to have negative spillover effects on emerging markets whose recovery will be shallower compared to past crises.

Global trade is expanding once again above the long-term average but will be disrupted by labor and supply chain bottlenecks, amplified by omicron. We expect global trade in volume to grow by +5.4 percent in 2022 and +4.0 percent in 2023.

Allianz has been operating in Africa since 1912 in the following countries: Egypt, South Africa through Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Ivory Coast, Madagascar, Morocco, Senegal, Cameroon and Congo.

The Allianz Group is one of the world’s leading insurers and asset managers with 126 million private and corporate customers in more than 70 countries.

Allianz customers benefit from a broad range of personal and corporate insurance services, ranging from property, life and health insurance to assistance services to credit insurance and global business insurance.

Allianz is one of the world’s largest investors, managing around 809 billion euros on behalf of its insurance customers.