10 security flashpoints identified as report flags expanding kidnap, terror networks

A new security assessment by SBM Intelligence has identified 10 major security flashpoints across Nigeria, warning that armed groups are expanding into new territories and are likely to intensify kidnappings, terrorist attacks, communal violence and political killings in the coming weeks if urgent measures are not taken.

The report links emerging threats in Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Borno, Sokoto, Kaduna, Bauchi, Enugu, Edo, Osun and Oyo states to the growing exploitation of poorly governed border forests and weak security presence, saying these corridors are enabling bandits, kidnappers and insurgent-linked groups to move across state boundaries, evade security forces and establish new operational bases.

According to the report, the recent abduction of three members of the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), who were allegedly travelling to deliver a ransom to kidnappers in Oko Irese, Irepodun Local Government Area of Kwara State, demonstrates the increasing sophistication of armed groups operating around the Kwara-Kogi boundary.

The report suggests the kidnappers may belong to one of three categories, including a splinter faction of armed Fulani bandits displaced from the North-West by sustained military offensives, a conventional kidnapping gang exploiting the forests straddling Kwara and Kogi states, or operatives linked to the Ansaru extremist network seeking to establish logistics bases in the Middle Belt.

It noted that the decision to retain the OPC members after allegedly collecting ransom, vehicles and food supplies reflects a strategy commonly employed by organised kidnapping syndicates to maximise financial gains while using hostages as leverage against rescue attempts.

Analysts also warned that any rescue operation by the OPC could heighten ethnic tensions, particularly if Fulani communities are wrongly blamed for the attack.

The report argues that the insecurity in Kwara is directly connected to violent incidents on the Okoloke-Egbe Road in Kogi State, where armed attackers recently shifted from kidnapping to outright killings.

According to the assessment, the same forest routes stretching across Kwara, Kogi and Ekiti states enable criminal groups to evade security operations by moving freely across state boundaries.

The report expressed concern that slow military response times in Yagba West Local Government Area could embolden attackers to carry out further operations in the coming days unless additional security resources are deployed.

The assessment also links these developments to continued attacks in Benue State, particularly in Guma Local Government Area.

It suggests that recent assaults on farming communities were likely launched from neighbouring Nasarawa State through marshland routes connecting Keana, Obi and Doma local government areas.

“Aackers appear to possess detailed knowledge of military deployment patterns and jurisdictional limitations, allowing them to strike villages before retreating across state boundaries”, the report said.

It warned that unless permanent forward operating bases are established in vulnerable border communities, attacks could intensify during the current planting season, worsening displacement and threatening food production.

In the North-East, the report attributes the recent burning of a school in Chibok Local Government Area of Borno State to the Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) faction of Boko Haram rather than the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP).

It argues that the destruction of educational facilities aligns more closely with JAS’s long-standing ideological opposition to Western education, while ISWAP typically focuses on military targets, economic assets and strategic infrastructure.

Despite military claims of repelling the attackers, the assessment cautions that Chibok remains vulnerable to rapid hit-and-run raids by insurgents forced into decentralised operations by sustained military offensives.

The report also highlighted intensifying clashes between the Lakurawa armed group and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) in Sokoto State.

“The rivalry is likely to trigger further violence across forests linking Tangaza, Illela and Gwadabawa local government areas as both groups compete for territorial control and influence over local communities”, it said.

Residents, the report noted, risk becoming trapped between rival armed factions through extortion, forced taxation and retaliatory violence.

SBM warned of increasing threats in Birnin Gwari Local Government Area of Kaduna State following the abduction of six Almajiri pupils.

It suggested the attack was likely carried out by fighters linked to the notorious Dogo Gide faction or Ansaru-backed bandit networks operating in the area.

According to the report, beyond seeking ransom payments, the attackers may also be attempting to recruit young boys into their ranks.

Security analysts warned that farming communities around the Kuyallo axis could experience increased kidnappings and reprisal attacks in the coming weeks.

In Bauchi State, the report said recurring violence between the Inkil and Bujinji communities continues to be driven by disputes over land ownership, agriculture and political influence.

Although police deployments have restored temporary calm, the assessment argues that underlying grievances remain unresolved and could worsen as urban expansion increases pressure on land around Bauchi metropolis.

The report also questioned claims that the continued surrender of Boko Haram fighters and their families signals the collapse of the insurgency.

It argued that many insurgents are surrendering relatives because worsening food shortages, disease outbreaks and internal fighting between Boko Haram and ISWAP have made life inside forest enclaves increasingly unsustainable.

However, active combatants are expected to remain operational and could intensify attacks using improvised explosive devices and ambushes to demonstrate continued fighting capability.

Beyond terrorism and banditry, the report expressed concern over rising political violence ahead of future elections.

It cited alleged attacks on opposition supporters during the Enugu North senatorial by-election and warned that increasing reliance on political thugs could lead to more targeted assaults, intimidation and possible assassinations as electoral campaigns intensify.

The assessment also linked the killing of an Accord Party supporter in Osun State to broader concerns over political violence, while noting that the incident may also have been influenced by ongoing rivalry between rival cult groups seeking to exploit political tensions.

The report further suggested that remnants of the Dogo Yellow kidnapping network may have relocated operations from Edo North to forests surrounding the Benin-Abraka highway following security crackdowns.

“The gang could collaborate with other criminal syndicates operating along the Edo-Delta boundary to launch coordinated highway kidnappings after temporarily suspending activities to avoid heightened security attention”, it warned.

The assessment predicted renewed clashes between rival Eiye and Aye cult groups in the Ajah, Sangotedo and Lekki-Epe corridor of Lagos following the killing of an alleged Eiye member by attackers believed to have disguised themselves as members of the same cult.

It warned that retaliatory attacks targeting lower-ranking members and suspected informants could occur over the coming weeks.

On the recent invasion of an immigration facility in Ogbomosho, Oyo State, the report mentioned that the attack was unlikely to have been carried out by Islamist insurgents.

Instead, it suggested the operation bore the hallmarks of a fragmented criminal gang, possibly linked to the Mohammed Dangi network, seeking to replenish weapons and resources rather than advance an ideological campaign.