AfCFTA needs $411bn for transport infrastructure to boost trade, says UN

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) requires an estimated $411 billion in transport infrastructure to facilitate efficient intracontinental trade, according to Antonio Pedro, deputy executive secretary for programme support at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).

Pedro, speaking at the 2025 Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, described AfCFTA as both a development blueprint and a powerful political platform aimed at transforming Africa’s trade landscape.

“An important study we did in 2022 on ‘Implications of AfCFTA for Demand of Transport Infrastructure and Services’ projected that about $411 billion in transport equipment will be required because of the AfCFTA, including $4 billion for 135 vessels, $25 billion for 243 aircraft, $36 billion for 169,000 rail wagons, and $345 billion for over 2.2 million trucks,” he said.

The trade agreement, which seeks to establish a single market for the continent’s 1.3 billion people with a combined GDP of up to $3 trillion, aims to eliminate tariffs on 90 percent of goods while addressing non-tariff barriers.

Pedro noted that investing in railway infrastructure and fleets could increase intra-African trade by rail from less than one percent today to nearly seven percent, a projected rise of 5.5 percent.

According to the ECA, much of African exports are external, revealing a greater need for regional supply chains.

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“Proud as we are of the journey so far, the task ahead remains significant and indeed critical. Today, about 85 percent of Africa’s total exports are directed to the rest of the world, with a strong concentration in primary commodities that account for over 60 percent of the total,” the executive secretary said.

“This contrasts with the composition of intra-African trade, which, although relatively small, is more diversified and dominated by industrial products. This is where the AfCFTA is expected to be a game changer.”

But restrictive tariffs still exist across the continent and usually discourage bilateral trade, with costs passed on to final consumers. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) have up to 13 years to remove tariffs on sensitive goods, while others have a shorter timeline.

According to Pedro, the ECA’s latest empirical assessment shows that reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers within the continent, as outlined in AfCFTA’s modalities, could lead to intra-African trade growing by 45 percent by 2045 compared to a scenario without AfCFTA.

The agrifood and industrial sectors are expected to benefit the most, offering new opportunities for industrialisation, food security, and product complementarity.

However, despite its vast potential, Pedro noted that a lack of awareness about AfCFTA remains a significant challenge, particularly among small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) in Africa.

“We must not expect intra-African trade to change without the African private sector knowing about it, embracing it, and playing a key role in supporting its operationalisation,” he said.

“In other words, the transformational power of the AfCFTA can only be unleashed through a comprehensive, coordinated, inclusive, and intentional action by all at all levels,” he said.

“Nigeria’s designation as the Digital Trade Champion is a game changer. The protocol will create millions of jobs for Africa’s tech-savvy youth, contribute billions to the continent’s GDP, and attract significant investments in public digital infrastructure,” said Jumoke Oduwole, minister of trade in Nigeria.