Why thuggery remains major feature in Nigeria’s electoral process

The role of thugs in the outcome of elections in Nigeria has become worrisome.

Unlike the role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which is well-captured in the constitution of the country and the electoral act, thugs have continued to ply their trade, most times aided and unhindered.

The focus is usually on the INEC, security agencies and politicians, many tend to look away from the harm thugs wreak in the process.

In many of the elections in Nigeria, thugs have always been recruited to cause havoc at polling units. They are the ones who carry ballot boxes, engage in ballot stuffing and attack opponents and innocent voters.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy is characterised by violence, which many political analysts have described as a proven strategy in determining the outcomes of elections by disrupting the voting process, especially in opposition strongholds.

Since the return to democratic governance in 1999, violent groups known as ‘political thugs’ in many quarters have been a constant factor in Nigeria’s electioneering process – often used by the established political parties to forcefully influence the electoral outcome.

In the Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Nigeria records over 200 violent events involving party members and supporters, resulting in nearly 100 reported fatalities in the 12 months preceding the 2023 election.

According to the ACLED, half of the violence involving party supporters in the 12 months before the 2023 election involved direct, organised attacks against civilians, followed by mob violence and abductions.

These numbers were largely in line with the run-ups to the previous two election years, with over 150 events and more than 100 reported fatalities between 2018 and 2019, and an estimated 115 events and over 90 fatalities between 2014 and 2015.

The South East (46 events) and the South West (45) registered the highest number of violent events involving party supporters before the 2023 election, followed by the South-South (38) and North Central (32) areas.

It indicated that nearly one in 10 events took place in the battleground state of Osun, where both the PDP and APC traded allegations over inciting violence against their rivals.

However, Joash Amupitan, INEC’s chairman, assured Nigerians during the Anambra State off-cycle governorship election that the commission would firmly confront any individual or groups planning to subvert the will of the people within the strong hands of the law.

But, for politicians and their supporters, the game is simple. If the voting does not seem to go their way, politicians easily mobilise thugs to raid the polling units and sometimes destroy electoral materials.

Just as the game is simple, the plan is to disrupt the voting pattern whenever their candidate is perceived to be losing. Not only does such disruption scare people away from casting their ballots in the first place; it also invalidates the ballots of the people who came out to vote on election day.

For instance, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) office in Rivers State was destroyed in March – an act indicative of intolerance of opposition.

According to reports, gunmen invaded the ADC office in Ubima Ward, Ikwerre Local Government Area of the state and set the party’s facility on fire.

“The attack on the African Democratic Congress (ADC) office in Ubima, Ikwere Local Government Area of Rivers State, is condemned.

“It is a dangerous development that efforts to weaken the opposition have now shifted to attacking its members and destroying its properties.

“These are not merely attacks on the opposition coalition ADC, but an assault on our democracy,” Atiku Abubakar, former vice president and ADC national leaders, stated.

While the act stands condemned by political observers, it is also a pointer to what should be expected in the forthcoming 2027 general election.

Recall that Salome Acheju Abuh, a People’s Democratic Party (PDP) women leader in Kogi State, was brutally killed on November 18, 2019, when suspected thugs burned her alive in her home at Ochadamu in Ofu Local Government Area. The incident followed the 2019 Kogi governorship election. Only one perpetrator was sentenced to 12 years in prison.

Chukwudinma Okoji, a communication expert based in Ilorin, Kwara State, said if democracy would thrive in Nigeria, the usage of thugs by politicians must be condemned by all and sundry.

According to him, thuggery should never be a factor in winning an election either by hook or by crook by any politician in Nigeria.

“The accepted thugs nurtured by political juggernauts systemically and asymmetrically are nothing but another shortfall in the country’s political landscape,” he said.

According to him, the activities of non-state actors in the country’s democratic experiment is a threat to ordinary citizens who believe in the progress of the country, and see the legitimate process of electing their rightful candidate being defeated.

“Against this short fall, this criminal activity perpetuated by some individuals today is a remote acceptance of politicians to win at all cost against the interest of the people they are to govern,” he said.

Okoji disclosed that whenever thugs dominate the electioneering process, a sane mind will naturally ask why the desperation; if truly the love to serve is the motivation to seek elective post.

“The thugs’ invasion of polling centres has prevented many people from voting as many lives have been lost during their charade during the election,” Okoji said.

Okoji linked the low turnout in the recent general election to activities of non-state actors who consciously or unconsciously scare voters away from the process.

“To be safe is better than being sorry since it’s alleged election result is written in Nigeria and not a true reflection of people’s mandate,” Okoji said.

Moses Lawal, a Lagos-based public commentator, said thuggery is the cheat code often deployed by desperate politicians usually at zones of weakness to disrupt a potential winning of an opponent by employing either intimidation techniques or outright violence.

He described it as a barbaric act that kills the needed sportsmanship expected in civil politics. He added that there are provisions in the 2026 Electoral Act, geared towards curbing thuggery in our political ecosystem.

Lawal however, posits that the onus is now on the security agents to enforce the laws to the latter, regardless of whose ox is gored!

“If every politician knows that the will of the electorates must be free and respected, as well as live by the rule of being graceful in defeat and magnanimous in victory, thuggery will disappear from our electoral process,” Lawal said.

psychology of violence and power play in politics

Social Psychologists believe Nigerian political elites seem to favour the use of thuggery in the electioneering process because violence has often given them results.

It is also believed that political thuggery thrived in Nigeria for several years because of the political structure of the country.

“Most of the people that actually become instruments in the hands of our politicians are those who are themselves already frustrated because of the situation of the country,” Johnson Ibidapo, a Social Psychologist, said.

According to him, poverty plays a key role in political thuggery because it’s been weaponized to gradually control the young people.

“For instance, if you look at the social psychology of it, there is a theory in social psychology that we refer to as the frustration-aggression theory.

“People are frustrated when they are not able to achieve their goals. And when a man is frustrated, the man who is frustrated is an aggressive man. He can do anything,” Ibidapo said.

He added that joblessness is also another factor fueling political thuggery across the country, with the growing number unemployment among the country’s most active demographic.

“Mind you, most of the people that the recruiters talk to are people who really have no other means of livelihood apart from political thuggery.

“Some of these people get harmed by these politicians and as a result of that they command violence and unleash this mayhem on people,” he said.

Ibidapo said that Social Learning Theory talks about people wanting to replicate what they see in others; especially when they see that some persons have prospered in certain endeavours.

“If younger people are seeing that, oh, the generation ahead of them are prospering, making money from political thuggery and they are building houses and those who went to school are not really making a headway in life, then you will hear the popular catchphrase of education is a scam and then you cannot blame any of them.”

What must change in 2027?

While the political atmosphere appears charged with accusation and counter-accusation by politicians and their supporters; analysts are of the view that Nigeria’s current socioeconomic situation has to improve before the country can bring the menace to a bearable state ahead of the 2027 general election.

“Improved power supply. Reduction in cost of food and living, and people-oriented developmental programmes are the things that must change ahead of 2027,” Okoji said.

Lawal however, posited that Nigeria must be proactive in making political thuggery risky, traceable, and pointless by mandating law enforcement agencies to make sponsors accountable.

According to him, Nigeria needs a special tribunal to speedily prosecute perpetrators of thuggery in the country’s electioneering process. “Also, as much as possible, human interference with results processing must be limited,” Lawal said.