The Fubara trajectory: A tragedy or blessing in disguise?

Preamble:

Siminalaiye Joseph Fubara rose to the pinnacle of his accounting career in the civil service by becoming the accountant in the Rivers State Government House known as Brick House where he encountered Nyesom Wike, then the Chief of Staff to the Gov Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi. He then became the state’s Accountant-General under Wike, said to be a loyal one so much so that he and his master came under criminal investigation and hunt by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) for a long time.

The outgoing governor strangely picked him and crowned him the candidate of the state’s ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and pushed him through the general elections into the Brick House. The outgoing governor also handpicked the members of the Rivers State House of Assembly led by Martins Amaewhule as Speaker, and gave him a cabinet. It was clear that the outgoing governor was still governor by being in control of every facet of power in Rivers State even as he emerged FCT Minister and owner of all structures of power both in his PDP and in the national ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Just four months after, things fell apart; an impeachment notice was served on Gov Fubara, an indication that things had fallen apart to the extent of an impeachment move. This threw the state into political crisis until state of emergency was declared for six months and later the deal for Fubara to quit power after his first term. This ended on the evening of Wednesday, May 20, 2026, when the governor threw in the towel and announced withdrawal from any reelection struggle. Tears, wailing, mourning, and silent celebration followed.

It’s a political crime to want to decide your successor – Wike soon taking office of governor:

Less than one year after Wike became governor, he granted an exclusive interview to Editor of BusinessDay on the economic direction of the new administration. He accused his predecessor and former political godfather, Amaechi, of committing a big political crime of wanting to install a successor (Dakuku Peterside). He said he would not attempt such a misdeed. “Do your own and go. Take on projects you can start and finish. Allow the Rivers people to decide who next to govern them. Period”.

The bottom line was that a governor should take on projects he can complete and leave so it would be clear what he did within his own time. He was against carrying too many projects and embarking on complicated projects that would require your successor to decide whether to continue or not. He was referring to projects like the N150bn monorail.

Wike, Fubara and the upland-riverine power sharing:

The nomination and election of any governor in Rivers State will rely on a very sensitive philosophy which requires that there must be rotation between upland and riverine communities of the state. Before Bayelsa State was created, the upland people had always cried that they were oppressed or undercut by heavy presence of riverine areas who allegedly took most appointments. When democracy thus returned, the decision to nominate governor fell on same riverine political lords led by Alabo Tonye Graham-Douglas, now late, who formed the PDP and convinced other lords such as Marshall Harry and Aminasoari Kala Dikibo (all killed) to allow the upland to produce the governor to kickstart a new democratic dispensation for Rivers State, all to give peace a chance by giving all sections a sense of belonging.

That was how Peter Odili, a medical doctor and peripheral politician emerged as first governor. He is from Ndoni, regarded as an upland community in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni LGA. He ended up with eight years. To the chagrin of the riverine section, he was succeeded by his right hand man, Amaechi, another upland man, this time from Ikwerre, now the dominant ethnic group in the state in the absence of most Ijaw people now in Bayelsa State. Amaechi governed for eight years too, making upland 16 years. This led to a groundswell of demand for a riverine successor.

Amaechi himself supported this and felt that some force was needed to get power out of the upland people and allow riverine to have it, just as was done by Douglas to get the upland have it.

On the other hand, Wike, then a Minister, was not keen on this. He rather floated an argument that Amaechi was fighting Goodluck Jonathan and that it was safer for the riverine people to care less about rotation to them but more about making sure power stayed with the defeated president’s party (PDP). This sold well because they saw him (Wike) as a messiah and Amaechi as a betrayer of the Niger Delta. This delivered the Brick House to Wike and his PDP to the loss of Amaechi’s candidate, Peterside, and the APC then seen as a Yoruba party.

A narrative or escapism was created by those who supported Wike to show that the Riverine/Upland argument was dead. They followed what Blessing Nwikina, a political analyst, called an unwritten script for mobilization.

They showed that there is no place called riverine again in the sense that all major or historical islands have been connected by roads: The Emohua-Abonnema Road project led into into Kalabariland by the military linking Buguma, Degema, Abonnema, Tema, Krakrama, Obuama, Obonoma, etc.

Odili followed by getting the FG (Obasanjo) to construct the Ndoni-Omoku Road ending the tortuous journey through the real Niger Delta difficult terrain, waging through virgin rain forest trees and vegetation that seem to line the unpaved route as if on a parade to honour a first time visitor, as Nwikina said. “Beyond the trees, lies unending stretches of swamps serenade the two sides of the road just to say welcome to the Rain forests. Treacherous tributaries of the River Niger and Orashi Rivers had created multiple creeks of waters along the way as you push through towards crossing the Pontu. All that is history now as Ndoni is now accessible by road as well. Odili now faced Opobo where his deputy, GT Toby, came from, and launched the Ogoni-Andoni-Opobo historic road known as the Unity Road, believed to be the most expensive road project in the state then.

These iconic islands had then ceased to be addressed as islands, in strict geographical parlance, but were now part of the expanding mainland in Rivers State. The political class pointed at this to show that Rivers State was no longer viewed as upland versus riverine sections. Many still argued for rotation on senatorial or local council bases as is done in other states.

When the pressure continued, Wike seemed to succumb by presenting Fubara of Opobo as his answer to the clamour for riverine people to taste power for once since 1999.

Term elongation rumours:

As the debate of power rotation on upland versus riverine groups was going on, rumour emerged that Wike nursed and was working toward power elongation. They said it was not going to be by his direct continued stay in Brick House but by searching out an amenable personality he would install as governor and rule through him.

This came at same time that the EFCC was hunting and haunting both Wike and Fubara over alleged case of over-the-counter withdrawals amounting to over N117bn, contrary to due process. Wike had immunity until out of power but Fubara didn’t have. It was believed that the investigation strategy was to get Fubara arrested and forced to confess the details they would need to confront Wike when out of power. Many thus felt that Wike was considering making Fubara next governor to keep him (Fubara) covered with immunity. This seemed to go well with the rotation clamour. It seemed to suit the campaigners for rotation as well as suited Wike for staying out of EFCC net. The term elongation theory thus faded a bit.

Wike’s U-Turn:

Those who believed and loved Wike’s declaration in the early years that it was a crime to seek to impose a successor on the people like Amaechi sought to do, now seemed fazed to learn that Wike was trying to do exactly what he accused Amaechi of, and was even being more direct and aggressive about it.

Those interviewed on this project such as Ukandi Akpekwu Imbufe (political analyst), Law Bekwele (a Wike supporter), Wisdom Dike (researcher), Asiemia Emmanuel Dumo (cleric), and Fyneface Dumnamene Fyneface (development expert and activist), all admitted that Wike singlehandedly installed Fubara. This has now turned to haunt the people because many say it is the beginning of the decline of democracy which thrives on the principle of power to the people as true sovereigns. They recalled his early pledges on this to allow the people to come up with their choices during the primaries to be tested at the general election. Trying to go back on this pledge seemed to cause much disgusting reactions in the polity. Many said it created fear that the people can no longer rely on the pledge of their leaders.

The making of Gov Sim Fubara:

Wike’s kitchen cabinet or inner caucus, made up of his trusted allies and some handpicked elders of the state had a big issue on their hands by this time in 2022. It had just become clear that the governor wanted to pick his successor, contrary to his avowed stand earlier. It was also clear to them that Wike had apparently dislodged the opposition (Amaechi and co) to the extent that they hardly got a chance to stand in elections. The courts were there to nullify any list they submitted to the electoral umpire (INEC) or any primaries they conducted.

They now realised that anyone picked by Wike would simply walk through the electorate and become governor. The problem was, who would Wike pick? Nobody seemed interested in how power was acquired or if democratic principles were being crushed or not. Power seemed very close.

This was said to have provoked intense lobbying to be the anointed one. In a state where official political communication is absent, the grapevine seems to rule by supplying the missing link. It was gathered that some Ikwerre persons such as Austin Opara (onetime deputy speaker of the Federal House of Representatives), Chibudom Nwuche (who was the deputy before Opara), and some others, all allegedly lobbied Wike through his beloved allies such as Celestine Omehia (now an adversary), Desmond Akawor (former ambassador to South Korea), and Ferdinand Alabraba (head of the elders forum). Wike was said to have said Fubara, the quiet and loyal accountant-general, was best for the purpose. It was said that at a point, Wike asked both Fubara and one forward choice to go into another room and decide who to drop. Unconfirmed sources said they did not take long because Fubara was said to have told the other that he could not strive for anything with a master.

It was said that when they came out and reported the out (how Fubara humbly surrendered), Wike immediately crowned Fubara the man for the job, seeing the depth of his humility and willingness to submit to an elder. That was it, they said. The rest went home to mourn or to support the godfather’s wish.

The muscling of all others:

From that moment, the list was made up. Wike has openly spoken of how he singlehandedly bought all the nomination forms for the list and pushed the agenda through till each single person on his list was elected (Governor, deputy, House of Assembly members, National Assembly members, etc).

Outside the caucus, some persons who dared to buy form were hunted down. The travails of Dr. Farah Dagogo, a former member of the Federal House of Representatives suffered a high profile political persecution in the state to set an example to those who would dare Wike and show up to contest. In April 2022, while attempting to undergo screening as a PDP governorship aspirant outside Wike’s wish, Dagogo was declared wanted by Wike who accused him of sponsoring cultists to disrupt the PDP screening process at the party’s secretariat on Aba Road in Port Harcourt.

Dagogo maintained his innocence, asserting the allegations were politically motivated to prevent him from participating in the governorship race. He was arrested, detained for 63 days, and initially denied bail. He was eventually acquitted after months of court appearances and legal battles by a Rivers State High Court which discharged of all criminal charges. The court cited a lack of diligent prosecution and noted the state’s failure to prove the allegations. Many say the accusations that put political leaders behind bars were actually not meant to be proved but to put them out of circulation first till they are no longer a threat to what the godfather wanted.

Following his release and the conclusion of his trial, Dagogo completely realigned his political trajectory. He later emerged as the governorship candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) for the state’s upcoming elections, where defeat was guaranteed.

This was the lesson every person who wanted to dare the choice of Fubara, either within the PDP or outside, was made to learn. That put paid to any such ambitions. Fubara won, but allegedly became a prisoner of conscience.

Fubara, lucky Fela or a prisoner?

The moment his name was announced as a Wike pick, mixed reactions seemed to follow, with the majority apparently cynical. They openly said such a dove was not going to stand the heat in the kitchen. Many, especially in the opposition, openly said it truly was Wike’s 3rd agenda in action.

Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, a then-prominent APC chieftain and Amaechi ally, heavily criticised Wike’s choice. He alleged that Fubara was brazenly imposed on the Rivers people to serve as a stooge.

When the cabinet was formed, Eze specifically noted that Wike handpicked cabinet members and controlled state finances to maintain absolute power.

According to a retired Govt House information manager, early signs of crisis in Fubara’s life after accepting the burden were how the campaigns were going. At every campaign stop, the reporting by the media team (Govt House Press Unit) focuses on what Wike said as if he were the candidate. The report would also capture what others said, and would end with few lines of what Fubara said. This would repeat at every campaign stop, making Fubara totally invisible without any tangible message to the people.

This was worse when both the Rivers Entrepreneurs and Investors Forum (REIF) and the Rivers State Council of the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) mounted two different Governorship Debates. Fubara did not attend any. Sources, however, hinted that Fubara appeared to be in severe pain while watching the debates without being on the stage. Many in the media began to see him as a prisoner of power play.

What went wrong:

Fubara took the oath of office on May 29, 2023, only to face an impeachment letter on October 30, 2023. The world learned that it was because of a political rift between Fubara (Governor) and Wike (FCT Minister), but what the lawmakers tabled in the notice was breach of the constitution by allegedly spending without lawmakers’ approval.

Many said the budget of the state by 2023 was the one approved by the Rivers State House of Assembly. It was difficult to see where the governor erred so early in office. Many said the governor had not had time to even steal money or to break the Constitution especially as almost every appointment was made by his godfather. Third term seemed on duty.

As speculations of cause of dispute continued to soar, many wondered what would still be an issue when the ex-governor had control of all lawmakers, had handpicked the cabinet, was deciding so many other things.

While true cause of crisis was subject of speculation, sources close to Fubara mentioned disagreement in sharing the state’s federal allocation (FAAC), mentioning percentage agreed to be given to the godfather. Others said the governor was not free to travel where other governors travelled to, and was not free to receive visitors as other governors did. They claimed that the governor was required to send list of those requesting to visit him in office for approval, etc.

One major speculation was on internally generated revenue (IGR) of the state. Rumours were rife that Fubara had become uncomfortable with the figures he was seeing as monthly IGR returns, amounts without breakdown. It was learnt that the governor finally asked for breakdown of the regular amount he was seeing. It was learnt that message went to Abuja that ‘he is asking for breakdown’, a signal for trouble. It was interpreted as sign that the cob was trying to be a lion.

The governor seemed to lend credence to this speculation when he told the world that when he told the world that he forced his interest in the IGR, that the monthly grossing had moved from frequent N11bn or N12bn to between N35bn and N28bn. This shook the nation.

In the heat of the crisis, Gov Fubara said they were asking him to submit his liver and kidney. This created wild speculations. Some understood it to be that he was being forced to join a cult and bring his liver and kidney (literal meaning); others said it meant he was being asked to surrender the most revenant aspects of the powers of a governor.

The FCT Minister waved off these insinuations and direct accusations at some of his many televised media parleys, but always said choosing Fubara was a big mistake he was going to correct in 2027.

· The Rivers State House of Assembly, however, later gave the official subsequent impeachment reason as gross misconduct for alleged extra-budgetary spending without legislative approval. They later cited violating the peace agreement facilitated by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The wars:

During the crisis, each side fought doggedly. Wike employed use of live media parleys where he took Fubara to pieces. Gov Fubara, on the other side, embarked on townhall and project commissioning events where he defended himself and made his giodfather appear desperate and wicked. The world cheered and jeered at both combatants.

Fubara sidelined Wike’s men in cabinet until Wike ordered them to vacate the place. They did, and it showed those loyal to Wike and those loyal to Fubara. This created bigger division in the political class all over the state. Jobs were lost and gained on both sides.

Later, after some reconciliations, new cabinet was constituted and some that left came back. Soon, crisis re-erupted. At a point, the state could not get a budget nor a cabinet. Several court orders and counter orders flew across. The seat of the state’s Chief Judge became hot up to efforts to get him out. Institutions fell and rose. The Supreme Court struck at a time, shooting down the local council elections. The state’s electoral body was dissolved and new one appointed.

The Presidency always intervened but many said the interventions were skewed to benefit the President. Peace deals were reached but peace did not come.

Sins of Sim:

Many have thus been asking what Fubara must have committed in breach of the constitution or against governance principles that made impeaching him the last option. It was discovered that each time he made any move that suggested he was eyeing second term, the crisis in the state woke up immediately, and explosive talks began. At last, the fireworks came back. Wike said he singlehandedly made Fubara governor, and he launched press briefing and wholesale television interviews where everything Fubara was subject matter.

The latest uproar was because of strong indications that Gov Fubara picked a nomination form. Many say it was picked for him. This was confirmed by Opunabo Inko-Tariah, a former Wike aide. Wike’s position was that Fubara should just finish his term and go. Many say other causes of the clash including sharing formula (in FAAC and IGR), appointments of commissioners and others, etc, seemed to have been abandoned to focus on ‘Operation Stop Sim’.

Inko-Tariah however insisted that Fubara was definitely contesting. “He is. He has not said he’s not contesting. He did not reject the forms. He would have come out openly to say, I reject the form, I’m not contesting. But, he has not done so, and what does silence mean? Consent.

“So, it’s obvious that he’s contesting. But you see, the governor is not somebody that is garrulous. He keeps a lot to his chest. He believes in action than words. And I believe that at the appropriate time he is going to address a press conference because the primaries or whatever are just by the corner.

“In a free and fair election, the governor will win any candidate that is fielded. Any candidate. Even if Wike himself comes out to contest today against the governor, he’s going to lose. Fubara has the organic support needed to win. In fact, many people are angry with him that he doesn’t even spend money. So, the support he has is organic”.

He attributed this massive and organic support as reaction to Wike’s military-style leadership, as the people see the governor as a breath of fresh air.

True to prediction, Wike reacted by lambasting Fubara every day. He told newsmen that buying form or seeking reelection was act of betrayal of an agreement reached with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Wike thus came out smoking.

At the center of the controversy was the reported plan by Martin Amaewhule, Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly to reopen impeachment discussions against Gov Fubara once plenary resumes. The move was intensified after reports emerged that Fubara had secured APC governorship nomination forms ahead of the 2027 elections.

Wike however countered that Fubara was disrespecting President Tinubu by picking form.

Wike was also said to have pushed his most loyal kinsman, O.K Chindah of the House of Representatives to pick the form in the APC. Kenneth referred to sources that insist that any action capable of destabilizing Rivers State or undermining the authority of the President would not be taken lightly.

The great surrender:

As speculations were going on whether Fubara was screened or not after he stormed out of the screening centre in Abuja, the governor finally threw in the towel, though Wike allies said it was when he had nowhere to head to anymore.

Gov Fubara said: “After deep reflection and extensive consultations with my family, friends, and associates, I have taken the difficult but necessary decision to withdraw from the APC gubernatorial primaries. I do so with a full heart and with a firm commitment to support whoever emerges as the candidate of our great party.

“Leadership is ultimately about sacrifice. There comes a time when personal ambition must yield to the greater good of the people. Rivers State is bigger than any individual, and at this critical moment, the peace, stability, and unity of our dear state must take precedence over every personal interest.

“To my supporters who stood firmly with me throughout this journey who gave their time, resources, prayers, and unwavering hope, I offer my deepest gratitude. I understand the disappointment, the anger, and the pain many of you may feel. Much has indeed been invested and much sacrificed along the way. But please know that your loyalty and trust were never in vain. My silence over this period was deliberate and strategic, guided always by the higher interest of our state and our people.

“As our elders say, not everything a hunter sees in the forest is spoken of in the marketplace. Some truths are best borne quietly, not out of fear, but out of wisdom and restraint for the sake of peace and a greater purpose. It is enough to say that I have faced immense pressures and difficult choices, but my love for Rivers State remains greater than anything else.”

He declared: “Let it be clearly understood that I stepped aside from participating in the upcoming River’s state Gubernatorial election not out of weakness, fear, or surrender, but out of conviction and sacrifice so that Rivers State may move forward in peace and unity and I remain committed to serving the good people of Rivers state till the end of my term.”

The Fubara humiliation:

Has Fubara been made to play the role Isaac played in the Bible when he was made to carry the firewood meant to roast him. Many see the role given to Fubara to serve as returning officer for the APC as huge humiliation. He has not been allowed to defect but to stay and deliver his successor.

Fubara: Tragedy or blessing in disguise?

May wonder whether what has just happened to Fubara is only a tragedy. Dumo, a cleric, says it is not all woe but some good is lined up behind it. It is believed that it is better for Fubara to step aside so others can carry the wrath and karma about to happen in the state.

Fubara once said in a church that since he became governor, he has never had peace. He once told close confidants that he was satisfied as a civil servant, able to give the little he had to relatives but that as governor, he has been most traumatized. Wike too has boasted of ability to chastise anyone he chose to till the fellow would fail. So, withdrawing may be hidden blessing, they said.

Some say he may have been given some landing cushions such as promise of protection, some roles in the next dispensation at the federal level, some foreign posting to go and rest with his family, etc.

Complications of replacing Fubara:

The sudden withdrawal of Fubara has led to wailings, moods, crying, and mourning, though some quarters are jubilating. Many such as activists are calling Wike names.

Some have recalled what Amaechi said in 2022 that allowing Wike, another Ikwerre man, to take over from him, an ikwerre man, would spell the end of riverine governor for a very long time. Now, it seems using Fubara to deflect the Amaechi prediction has done its job. Now, power seems headed to Ikwerre and upland again. Many are now shouting, but when Wike makes his move, crying hardly stopped him.

Questions are now being raised if there is any hope for riverine governor any time soon. The two strong Riverine aspirants, Kelly DA and Tonye Cole, have stepped down for Wike’s kinsman and choice, Ogundu Kingsley Chinda, showing that what Amaechi warned and foretold has come true.

Other Ikwerre sections are raising jokes that next after Chinda would be Emuohua. It usually starts like a joke.

Conclusion: Lessons to Rivers and Nigeria democracy:

Some political pundits have said the only lesson there to learn is never to allow power into the hands of one man. Others say it is important to look well before buying excuses given by political leaders to deviate from agreed rules such as rotation. They also say it is important to urge elders to form a powerful group that would decide the future of the state going forward devoid of political patronage.