…Why new leadership alone won’t stop the bloodshed
The North-West region of Nigeria has been plagued by a distressing surge in violence, raising significant concerns about the effectiveness of the country’s security measures and the growing influence of non-state actors. Recent events have cast a spotlight on the escalating violence and the apparent inadequacies in addressing the root causes of insecurity in the region.
The region, encompassing seven states—Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara—covers roughly 216,065 square kilometers, nearly equivalent to the size of the UK. Predominantly home to the Hausa and Fulani ethnic groups, the region is known for its rich cultural heritage and agricultural activities.
Despite its vast resources, including gold, the region remains impoverished. Statistics from 2019 indicate a high poverty rate, with Sokoto, Jigawa, and Zamfara having rates of 87.7%, 87%, and 74% respectively. Approximately 80% of the population relies on farming, pastoralism, or small-scale entrepreneurship.
The North West faces significant economic challenges, with a high poverty rate and limited access to essential services. The literacy rate stands at just 29.7%, largely due to inadequate investment in formal education. Many children are enrolled in under-resourced Quranic schools, resulting in a generation of unskilled youth. Poor governance and mismanagement of public funds exacerbate these issues, leading to a persistent lack of healthcare and clean water.
Geographically, the North West’s extensive savannahs and forests present challenges for security and governance. Forests, once monitored by forestry authorities, have become havens for criminals such as cattle rustlers and kidnappers. The Kamuku forest in Kaduna state, for example, is now considered as perilous as Boko Haram’s strongholds in Borno state. The region’s long border with Niger Republic further complicates security efforts due to weak border control and corruption among officials.
In recent years, violence has surged in the North West, driven by herder-farmer conflicts, criminal gangs, and jihadist groups. Since 2011, violent clashes have escalated, resulting in an estimated 8,000 deaths. The conflicts, characterized by community attacks, livestock theft, and sexual violence, reflect a broader crisis involving sectarian violence and inadequate government response. The ongoing instability continues to threaten the region’s security and development.
A surge in insecurity
Since President Bola Tinubu’s appointment of new service chiefs on June 19, 2023, the North-West has seen a continued escalation of violence. The overhaul, which removed key figures such as Alkali Usman, the former Inspector-General of Police, and replaced them with new leaders including Maj. Gen. C.G Musa as Chief of Defence Staff, aimed to combat the region’s persistent insecurity. However, over 1,500 deaths have been reported in the first half of 2023 alone, with the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) highlighting approximately 60,000 fatalities in northern Nigeria over the past decade due to insecurity.
However, the Federal Government, in a bid to tackle the surging violence in Nigeria’s North West took a strategic step. On August 31, 2024, the Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle, announced a decisive move to deploy the Chief of Defence Staff and other top military officials to Sokoto State.
This deployment aims to intensify efforts against banditry, kidnapping, and terrorism in the region. The Chief of Defence Staff, along with other service chiefs, will supervise operations directly on the ground, focusing on flushing out notorious bandit leader Bello Turji and his gang. The move underscores the government’s commitment to restoring peace and security in the North West.
According to a statement from the Ministry of Defence, this relocation is part of a broader strategy to address the persistent threat posed by bandits and terrorists. The deployment also highlights the government’s resolve to tackle the crisis head-on, following reports of bandits taunting the military on social media. The Federal Government has vowed to leverage all necessary resources to weaken the criminal elements and restore stability to the affected communities.
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The growing influence of non-state actors
Non-state actors, including armed bands and insurgents, have gained significant traction in the North-West. These groups, emboldened by the power vacuum left by weakened state institutions, now operate with alarming boldness.
They actively use social media platforms like TikTok to showcase their criminal activities, flaunting weapons and boasting about their exploits. The rise of these actors is compounded by their ability to engage with large audiences online, spreading their influence and further destabilising the region.
The limitations of leadership changes
The appointment of new security chiefs, including Maj. Gen. T. A. Lagbaja as Chief of Army Staff and Nuhu Ribadu as National Security Adviser was intended to provide a fresh approach to Nigeria’s security challenges. However, the results have been mixed. Despite significant efforts, including numerous military operations, the region remains deeply troubled. The death toll from these conflicts continues to rise, highlighting the limitations of merely rotating leadership without addressing underlying issues.
Root causes of insecurity
The insecurity in Nigeria’s North-West is driven by several factors. The region’s economic collapse, marked by the closure of numerous factories and the decimation of agriculture and livestock industries, has exacerbated the crisis. The competition over scarce resources between Fulani herders and Hausa farmers has fueled violence, further intensified by climate change and rapid population growth. Additionally, the proliferation of arms and the presence of jihadist groups have added layers of complexity to the conflict.
The role of organised crime
Organised crime has increasingly become a significant factor in the North-West’s instability. Armed groups and criminal gangs, initially focused on cattle rustling and kidnapping for ransom, have evolved into more sophisticated entities. The spread of these groups across ungoverned forests and their engagement in illegal gold mining have compounded the violence. Security experts warn that the North-West could serve as a conduit for jihadist groups, linking them to Boko Haram factions in the North-East.
Economic and humanitarian impact
The humanitarian toll of the ongoing violence is severe. Over 8,000 people have been killed, and more than 200,000 have been displaced. The economic impact has been equally devastating, with agriculture and livestock industries in the region virtually destroyed. The situation has driven many to seek refuge in neighboring Niger, underscoring the broad-reaching consequences of the crisis.
Challenges and prospects
Efforts to address the crisis, including military operations and peace talks, have achieved only temporary relief. The Nigerian government’s approach has been criticized for its lack of effectiveness in halting the violence. The need for a comprehensive strategy that addresses both immediate and long-term causes of conflict is critical. This includes facilitating dialogue between conflicting parties, regulating the gold mining sector, and addressing the region’s economic and humanitarian needs.
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Conclusion: A comprehensive strategy for resolving the herder-farmer crisis in Nigeria’s North West
Efforts to address the herder-farmer conflicts in Nigeria’s North West have seen some progress but have largely been insufficient. Initiatives such as establishing rural grazing areas in states like Zamfara aimed to provide herders with dedicated land, yet these measures have fallen short. The grazing areas are often too small and lack essential infrastructure, markets, and services necessary for herders’ success. The National Livestock Transformation Plan, launched by the federal government in 2019, seeks to address these shortcomings by promoting ranching, enhancing water resources, and supporting pastoralists in transitioning to more settled livestock practices. However, more comprehensive implementation is needed, including financial backing for state-level projects and support from international donors.
To reduce violence driven by cattle rustling, which has led many herders to arm themselves, the federal government must establish a robust system for tracking lost cattle. This could involve measures such as cattle branding and the use of solar-powered tracking devices to aid in the recovery of stolen livestock. Some states have initiated steps toward this goal, but nationwide implementation is crucial for effectiveness. Additionally, creating a comprehensive system to regulate cattle markets and slaughterhouses could help in curbing the rise of armed groups and reducing the incentive for violence among herders.
Long-term peacebuilding and humanitarian support are essential for resolving the crisis. Governments in the North West need to commit to sustained peace efforts, including community forums and reconciliation initiatives that involve both herders and farmers. Addressing the ongoing humanitarian needs of internally displaced persons and ensuring that international aid is directed towards rebuilding efforts are critical. Finally, environmental restoration projects, such as the Great Green Wall Initiative, can provide sustainable livelihoods and reduce resource-based conflicts. A broad, coordinated approach that addresses both immediate and underlying issues is necessary for achieving lasting peace in the North West.
