Sahel crisis: What Nigeria must do to avert impending danger – Experts warn

The current security crisis in Nigeria’s neighbouring African countries, especially in the Sahel, could further worsen insecurity due to growing efforts by extremist groups and terrorists in the Sahel to gain access to Lake Chad and the Northwest of the country.

Observers are worried that the Niger Republic, Burkina Faso and Mali are deeply troubled by the al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM and the Tuareg separatist rebels JNIM /FLA coalition. They warned that JNIM/FLA access to the Lake Chad Basin would significantly serve as safe havens and boost their capacity for smuggling of arms and foreign fighters unhindered due to porous borders.

Consequently, the Sahel countries of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are widely regarded as the epicentre of terrorist activity, with insurgent networks linked to ISIS and Al-Qaeda particularly entrenched in Burkina Faso and Mali. The Nigerian government has been battling Boko-Haram terrorists for 16 years, and its arch-rival ISWAP fighters; Bandits, Lakurawa, Ansaru and recently Yaro Mallam terrorist groups.

According to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the Sahel accounted for 19 percent of all terrorist attacks worldwide and 51 percent of global terrorism-related deaths in 2024, up from 48 percent in 2023.

Nigeria must strengthen regional security framework now or blame itself – Sadiq

Security expert raised concern that while these transnational threats are becoming increasingly interconnected, the regional security architecture framework established by neighbouring countries to address some of these problems has begun to shrink, with significant implications for Nigeria.

Sadiq Muhammad Mustapha, Senior Programme Officer, Dispute Resolution and Development Initiative (DRDI), noted that whatever happened in the Sahel region would significantly affect Nigeria, especially states that share borders with the Niger Republic, as these states have cultural, historical, traditional, social, and economic ties with the Niger Republic.
“We share long borders with Niger, Benin, Cameroon and Chad alongside historic economic and social connections with them. So, what happens in the wider Sahel will definitely affect Nigeria’s security environment, because we have seen it happening across some of these northern states that share borders with Niger, Chad, and other places.

“If we look at the crisis that is unfolding in the Sahel region, it is something that we should stop seeing as a collection of isolated national security problems, and what I mean by that is we should stop seeing it as an issue affecting individual countries like Mali alone or Burkina Faso, Niger, or Nigeria independently.
“For instance, where we are talking about the issue of violent extremism, transnational organised crime, arms trafficking, illicit financial flows, political instability, and even climate-induced pressures reinforce one another. So, all of these things are happening not in a vacuum, but complementing one another. So, the threat, as seen in the Sahel, operates across borders.

Therefore, it’s not confined to one country or nation.”

He maintained that “it operates across borders, and therefore, our understanding of it also and our response will also be regional rather than purely national. And in that case, what I mean is that, instead of focusing solely on individual national security measures, we should also do so alongside a regional security framework that governs how security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and other activities are carried out within the region.”

He explained that until recently, ISWAP operated across these countries; for example, it is operating in Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon, exploiting the shared borders, navigating difficult terrain, and establishing movement corridors where its fighters can easily move, converge, and proceed.

“So, this is one of the reasons that countries in West Africa and the Sahel in general recognise that no single country can effectively control these threats. So, they must strengthen the regional security framework architecture. We hope AES won’t operate independently without MJTF or ECOWAS.”

He opined that “Nigeria should also continue to strengthen its border security by improving surveillance technology and enhancing operational coordination among the armed forces. By that I mean the army, navy, the air force, the other paramilitary structures, including the Nigerian Immigration, Customs, and any other intelligence agencies, because border dominance in these days and times requires capability rather than isolated deployment.”

Read also: Repeated attack on Republic of Niger’s main airport raises fresh security concerns across Sahel

Political alignment shouldn’t affect regional security cooperation

Sadiq pointed out, “So, whether this cooperation is through ECOWAS or the AES or even the multinational joint task force or even bilateral agreements, the overriding objective should be to ensure that regional security cooperation remains complementary rather than fragmented, because along the way, we have seen issues where political realignments that happens to this group has affected neighboring diplomacy, and in that regard, it’s one of the motivating factors that makes countries withdraw from some of these security cooperations.

“So, in the long run, what we are trying to achieve is that, whatever the political realignment. It is imperative that security cooperation, especially at the regional level, is not affected by the issue of political diplomacy, but rather it’s maintained as something that should be continuous.

“So, another aspect that we need to also pay attention is Nigeria should continue playing a leadership role, particularly in sustaining practical regional security cooperation, so this is because as the region’s largest economy and one of its principal military powers, so Nigeria has both a strategic interest and also the institutional capacity to preserve intelligence sharing and even issue of defense diplomacy and operational coordination with neighboring countries,” Sadiq maintained.

Exit of Niger could weaken regional counter-terrorism efforts – Analyst

The instability in the Sahel region has spilt over into Nigeria through its 4,000-kilometre border over the years; sadly, Nigeria’s borders remain heavily porous and dotted with hundreds of unmanned, illegal entry routes into Nigeria, Cameroon, and Chad.

Abubakar Mohammed Kareto, a public affairs analyst, said the exit of the Niger Republic from the multinational joint force set back earlier this year, when Niger announced its exit from the operation, opting instead to partner Burkina Faso and Mali to counter extremist violence under the alliance of Sahel states, which could weaken counter-insurgency, especially along Niger’s borders, where the terrorist groups operate.

“Niger should come back. We should do it together. We are talking of lives and properties of our citizens. Boko Haram does not have limitations. They attack everywhere. There is no saying that this Boko Haram belongs to Nigeria or he is of Chad or he only attacks in Cameroon.

No, the same Boko Haram that is attacking Nigeria is the one coming to attack Nigeria; it is the one going to attack Cameroon—likewise, Chad. So, the best thing is for us to come together to make sure we combat these guys using the same umbrella.

“It is obvious that the crisis in the Central Sahel has been rising and becoming more scary by the day, posing a huge amount of internal security threats to already chaotic Nigeria; the rise of groups like Lakurawa, Boko Haram and ISWAP has turned Nigeria’s neighbouring region into a global epicentre of violent extremism, and Nigeria cannot be exempted from the heat.

“I think allowing foreign breeder terrorist networks, group movements of sophisticated weapons, and fighters into the Northwest, North East and North-central regions has transformed localised banditry into a highly lethal, multi-front guerrilla war that has been lingering for decades without adequate government intervention,” he warned.

UNHCR warns Lake Chad Basin at tipping point as violence, displacement surge

Meanwhile, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) is alarmed that escalating violence across the Lake Chad Basin is driving a sharp increase in forced displacement and insecurity, threatening to reverse recent fragile stabilisation across the region.

Across the Lake Chad Basin, incorporating swathes of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, more than 3.5 million people are forcibly displaced, while 8.2 million require humanitarian assistance. The security situation has recently deteriorated sharply, with recorded incidents rising by 80 percent between January 2024 and April 2026.

“Between September 2025 and May 2026 alone, nearly 1,800 security incidents and more than 5,700 fatalities were recorded across the Basin.

These incidents include attacks on civilians, killings, kidnappings, explosions, clashes between armed actors and raids on villages.

“Borno State in Northeast Nigeria remains the epicentre of the crisis. Repeated attacks by non-state armed groups, military operations and insecurity along roads and displacement routes are uprooting families and severely limiting humanitarian access.

“The ripple effects extend beyond the northeast, as displacement, insecurity and competition over scarce resources increasingly spill into other regions, including the northwest and the so-called middle belt, deepening fragilities.

“Since January 2026, more than 77,500 people have been displaced across the four countries, including over 16,000 refugees who fled attacks in northeast Nigeria and recently crossed into Niger’s Diffa region, where UNHCR and partners are helping identify urgent needs, register new arrivals, monitor protection risks and provide life-saving assistance,” it stated.

According to the UN Refugee Agency, violence is increasingly having cross-border consequences, with attacks in one country rapidly triggering displacement in another.

“In Cameroon’s Far North, persistent attacks, abductions and village-level violence continue to drive chronic insecurity and new displacement. In Chad’s Lac Province, recurrent attacks and military operations have displaced some 60,000 people; a state of emergency was declared in May following an attack on military installations.

UN Refugee Agency lamented that recent protection monitoring across affected areas of the Lake Chad Basin shows that one in five households report no longer feeling safe in their own communities, reflecting the extent to which insecurity prevails.

“Women and girls face rising risks of violence, while specialised services remain critically under-resourced. The number of people who know survivors of violence has reportedly increased to 27 per cent so far in 2026, from 19 per cent in 2025, indicating a worsening protection environment amid significant underreporting, as survivors rely on strained family and community support networks.

“Without timely and flexible support, protection gaps will widen, displacement will continue to spread across borders, and the risk of a more entrenched regional crisis will increase. The trajectory remains deeply concerning, but it is still reversible with sustained support now,” the statement concluded.

Nigeria faces rising insecurity, abduction – PAVE

The activities of these terror groups have severely affected Nigeria, resulting in a dangerous convergence of ideological terrorism and transnational crime; rising cases of attacks on lives and properties leading to the destruction of economic activities, kidnapping; killings of innocent people; rural displacement leading to the disruption of Nigeria’s agricultural heartland, driving up food inflation, straining food security hopes.

Echoing the same view, the Partnership Against Violent Extremism (PAVE) Network has said its advocacy campaign aims to press for greater protection of lives and more accountable security responses amid rising concerns over insecurity, recurrent abductions and attacks on communities across Nigeria.

Jaye Gaskia, Chairman of the Steering Committee, PAVE Network, said the aim is to shift public engagement from mere outrage to focusing on practical actions that can bolster community resilience and enhance security governance.

“Nigeria is facing a severe insecurity crisis characterised by abductions, killings, attacks on schools and communities, violent extremism, banditry, organised crime, threats to livelihoods, and the erosion of community resilience.

“Nigeria’s insecurity challenge continues to impact communities through abductions, violent extremism, organised crime, attacks on educational institutions, and increasing threats to livelihoods, warning that long-term solutions must involve both government measures and active citizen participation.

The network also contended that strengthening local government systems is vital to enhancing community security, noting that local institutions often serve as the first line of defence for early warning, peacebuilding, and service delivery.

Jaye called on citizens, labour organisations, professional associations, civil society groups, faith leaders, and community actors to join the campaign and reinforce its message that safeguarding lives must remain a national priority.

FG, security apparatus need to go back to the drawing board – CSO

Ahmed Shehu, chairman of the Network of Civil Society Organisations in the Lake Chad Basin, lamented the recent surge in attacks and urged the military and the federal government to go back to the drawing board and change the approach, as insecurity is becoming increasingly worrisome.

He said, “We need to do something about this because now a lot of people are beginning to lose their means of livelihood. This is very unfortunate and very worrisome, especially given that many incidents are occurring at the same time. The government’s role is to protect its citizens. I think the government need to up its game to protect the citizens.

“This calls for immediate reflection by all stakeholders. As you can see, the attacks are occurring simultaneously and targeting the same formation. And now you can see the northern governors gathered to confirm that they have mobilised funds to support this security situation. For me, I’m looking at it not only in terms of funding but also inclusivity and engagement.

He added, “I still call for improvement in civil security engagement because the community needs to have been playing a role toward ensuring that these things are abated. I will still urge other stakeholders, including community leaders, religious leaders, and governments at all levels, to immediately implement the necessary measures to arrest the insecurity ravaging our region.

Lake Chad has about 800 islands

Security observers said terrorists have been active in Nigeria since 2009 and have since expanded into the three other countries bordering Lake Chad: Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. “The armed forces have been fighting the war but are far from having won a decade later. Battling Boko Haram and ISWAP has not been easy, because the group isolates itself in Lake Chad Islands,” observers said.

He noted that the group has notoriously grown and expanded its unholy operations from the northeast to the northwest and now to north-central.

“They use the islands as their fortresses. They use it to train anything of value. That’s where they keep their arms and ammunition, and they hibernate in the Timbutu. There are about 800 islands in the Lake Chad Basin. It’s quite huge, and quite big.

“And now we have several terrorist groups now waging war against Nigerians from northeast to northwest, and north-central and now northwest. The geographical expansion is crazy and scary,” a security observer worried.

Border control, use of intelligence to disrupt terror financing, arms trafficking – Expert says

Charles Pen, a security expert, alluded that Nigerian armed forces should focus on the destructive networks of terrorist groups, especially in arms trafficking, recruitment, illicit terror financing, and logistics in the Lake Chad Basin.

“I can say that these networks sustain insecurity. Most of these terrorist organisations do not operate in isolation; they rely on arms and ammunition movements and illicit finance to support their criminal networks.

“They depend on logistics, recruitment networks, and even cross-border criminal economies to serve as a form of terrorist financing. These are the lifelines that sustain terrorist organisations and their operations. Disrupting this support system will significantly weaken their operational capability.

“I believe the Nigerian government must strengthen our borders, especially in Kastina, Sokoto, Jigawa, Yobe, Borno, and other areas. We must deploy modern technology to curb the free movement of people from neighbouring countries if we are to tackle insecurity in our country effectively.

“The government needs to act swiftly and decisively; our security agencies must get to the root of the problem and eliminate anyone linked to banditry, terrorism, and other crimes. We cannot allow another splinter group of IS terrorists from the Sahel region to exacerbate the already overwhelming situation we are currently witnessing in the country,” Charles warned.