Rivers guber race: The sins of Sim

…As sale of forms reveals that Rivers endless political crisis still boils but underneath

Each time Gov Sim Fubara makes any move that suggests he is eyeing second term, the crisis in the state wakes up immediately, and explosive talks begin. Now, the fireworks seem to be back. Nyesom Wike, FCT Minister and immediate past governor who said he singlehandedly made Fubara governor, is back on paid press briefing and wholesale television interviews where everything Fubara is subject matter.

The latest uproar could be because of strong indications that Gov Fubara picked a nomination for (or it was picked for him). This has been confirmed by Opunabo Inko-Tariah, a former Wike aide. It is no guess work that Fubara and Wike have been embroiled in a political tussle that was only recently resolved by President Bola Tinubu after a six-month emergency rule. Wike’s position has been that Fubara should just finish his term and go. Many say other causes of the clash including sharing formula (in FAAC and IGR), appointments of commissioners and others, etc, seem to have been abandoned to focus on ‘Operation Stop Sim’.

Inko-Tariah however insists that Fubara is definitely contesting. “He is. He has not said he’s not contesting. He did not reject the forms. He would have come out openly to say, I reject the form, I’m not contesting. But, he has not done so, and what does silence mean? Consent.

“So, it’s obvious that he’s contesting. But you see, the governor is not somebody that is garrulous. He keeps a lot to his chest. He believes in action than words. And I believe that at the appropriate time he is going to address a press conference because the primaries or whatever are just by the corner.

“I have a certain conviction even though I haven’t talked with him on that matter. I have a certain conviction that he’s contesting because he was not angry that the expression of interest forms were bought for him.”

Inko-Tariah said Fubara enjoys enormous support among Rivers people in spite of his tag of stinginess and that the governor would defeat anybody including Wike anyday in a free and fair election.

“In a free and fair election, the governor will win any candidate that is fielded. Any candidate. Even if Wike himself comes out to contest today against the governor, he’s going to lose. Fubara has the organic support needed to win. In fact, many people are angry with him that he doesn’t even spend money. So, the support he has is organic”.

He attributed this massive and organic support as reaction to Wike’s military-style leadership, as the people see the governor as a breath of fresh air.

Inko-Tariah predicted a peaceful election in Rivers State, but warned of crisis once Wike’s loyalists discovered that Fubara was coasting to victory during the election.

True to prediction, Wike has reacted by lambasting Fubara every day. He tells newsmen that buying form or seeking reelection was act of betrayal of an agreement reached with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Wike has thus come out smoking. He is said to have endorsed two persons to contest against Wike in both APC and PDP.

Political communication in Rivers State at the moment is by word of mouth, grapevine, and rumours. There is never any statement by either parties, and there is even no Commissioner of Information in Rivers State at the moment. In fact, the cabinet in Rivers State is incomplete as the House of Assembly angrily threw out some nominees submitted to it. Citizens depend on informal communications with all its refuses.

Aladare Kenneth, a political commentator, wrote that the Presidency was strongly behind Fubara and has allegedly sent strong signals to Wike.

Kenneth talked about fresh signals from the Presidency suggesting growing displeasure over recent political developments in Rivers State, particularly the renewed tension surrounding Gov Fubara and the activities of allies loyal to Wike and their attendant acts of insubordination towards the president.

He quoted unnamed sources within the Presidency about concerns that some recent moves by Wike’s political camp contradict President Tinubu’s repeated calls for peace, stability, and unity in Rivers State.

At the center of the controversy is the reported plan by Martin Amaewhule, Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly to reopen impeachment discussions against Gov Fubara once plenary resumes. The move is said to have intensified after reports emerged that Fubara had secured APC governorship nomination forms ahead of the 2027 elections.

He said Presidential insiders viewed any renewed impeachment attempt as unnecessary and potentially disruptive, especially after previous reconciliation efforts brokered by President Tinubu, which both camps publicly welcomed at the time.

Wike is however countering that Fubara was disrespecting President Tinubu by picking form.

Wike seemed to counter by allegedly pushing two arrows into the guber race: George Kelly, Director-General of the Border Communities Development Agency (BCDA), who recently obtained APC governorship nomination forms, but critics say he was still occupying a federal appointment despite the President’s earlier directive requiring political appointees seeking elective office to resign before pursuing such ambitions.

Wike was also said to have pushed his most loyal kinsman, O.K Chindah of the House of Representatives to pick the form in the APC. Kenneth referred to sources that insist that any action capable of destabilizing Rivers State or undermining the authority of the President would not be taken lightly. Wike has however denied pushing Kelly to buy form while Chinda is said to have hurriedly resigned from the PDP while he had already picked APC form.

Chidozie Victor Anuebu, an analyst, who revealed that O. K. Chinda picked an APC form without first defecting to the APC, said following this revelation, Chinda has ‘secretly’ resigned from the PDP that morning. Chinda is Minority Leader in the House of Reps.

Many observers now say Fubara is rising from underdog status to a serious force. Kie Obomanu, a political analyst in the state, says the entry of Gov Hope Uzodinma of Imo State into the affairs of Rivers State has changed the balance of force. Uzodinma is chairman of the APC Governors Forum, the forum where important decisions in the APC are either taken or enforced. Obomanu says this is a man Wike has never been able to neutralize. “Uzodinma is a man who has been quietly working against Wike’s Rivers State agenda from the most powerful position available — the chairmanship of the Progressive Governors Forum.

“And now, following a directive that has sent shockwaves throughout the Rivers State political space, the man President Tinubu has handed the keys to the Rivers State APC screening process.

“Reports reaching us indicate that President Tinubu has directed the APC screening committee, chaired by Uzodimma, to prioritize and accept candidate lists endorsed by Gov Fubara for all upcoming electoral contests in Rivers State — Senate, House of Representatives, State House of Assembly — every seat, every position.

“If Fubara’s name and signature are not behind any form, it will not pass screening exercise. Those Assembly members who fought Fubara are now in the red corner. These guys are now seriously begging for APC tickets.

Every political calculation in Rivers State leading into 2027, shows Uzodimma Uzodimma as a barrier to the invasion of corrosive politics. This is why Wike fears him.”

He concluded thus: “Now, Tinubu has gone further by directing that Uzodimma’s screening committee accept only Fubara-endorsed candidates. The President has further converted the PGF to Gov Fbara’s political shield and institutional gatekeeper.”

He said the man who blocked Wike’s influence at the Governors’ forum is now the man who controls who gets what through the APC screening in Rivers State. “That is not just political backing — it’s the formalization of structural power shift through a presidential directive executed by one man Wike cannot reach.”

Those seeking APC tickets in Rivers State seem to be in some confusion. “To get through Uzodimma’s screening committee, they must be on Gov Fubara’s list. And to be on Gov Fubara’s list, they must go to Government House, Port Harcourt — to the man they served impeachment notices to beg and ask to.

“As these developments unfold, many observers now think Fubara is fast rising from an underdog to a lion.”

Many now say the Speaker and his cohorts have diminished and that Fubara, by contrast, has shown a different kind of strength, one rooted not in confrontation, but in endurance and calculated restraint. “In a political culture that often rewards noise, he has relied on timing. And timing, in politics, is often more decisive than numbers.”

The result is a shift in perception, which in politics is half the battle. The governor is no longer seen as embattled; he is now emboldened. Each attempt to box him in has instead highlighted his staying power, reinforcing the impression that he has not merely survived the crisis, but now holds the battle axe, they said.

This is where the balance of power has subtly, but significantly, tilted. “The Assembly can no longer disrupt proceedings, issues impeachment notice, nor stop governance. Over time, even the most loyal bloc risks fatigue.”

As for Martins Amaewhule and his colleagues, their challenge is becoming clearer by the day. Despite their defection to the All Progressive Congress (APC) and the Rainbow Coalition, they must have to seek the Governor’s assent if they want to return to the Assembly or lose out completely. Because the truth is unavoidable: the political centre of gravity in Rivers State has shifted towards Fubara.

According to Kayode Ogunnyemi, in the end, power is not just about how loudly it is asserted, but how long it endures. On that count, Fubara is beginning to look less like a governor under siege and more like one who is absolutely in charge.

In view of the turn of events, Alvin Idamiebi Igoni Benstowe argues that Wike’s ‘Rainbow Coalition’ begs Gov Fubara for direct primaries. This seems strange because Wike would hardly beg Fubara to get anything done when he knows what best to do to get his desire in the state.

Benstowe rather argued that after boasting and making noise that Gov Fubara and his anointed aspirants would not be given APC nomination forms, the Rainbow Coalition is now begging for direct primaries, but that the matter is still under consideration by the governor.

He said: “I have always told them that those structures they claim they own are meaningless and empty. They will rush and claim structures only to end up begging for soft landing from governor Fubara.

He said this is a clear evidence that Gov Sim remains their leader and leader of all their structures despite all their manipulations and boastings. “Just watch as governor Fubara is about to teach them politics using APC primaries.”

In the heat of the hypes of Gov Fubara riding high as the one to produce list of the candidates in the state, hints emerged that Wike’s camp was facing increasing pressure to decamp back to the PDP to avoid going to Fubara’s APC to beg.

Meanwhile, many calculations are said to be going on in Fubara’s camp. Some say the governor may bring in a strong political force as deputy. They say if Wike brings Obio/Akpor’s Chinda, Fubara may bring strongman Chijioke Ihunwor as deputy governor and Ezebunwo Ichemati and Edison Ehie as candidates to either be deputy governor or take up strong positions around him.

The belief however is that the grip Wike once had over party structures and candidate nominations is diminishing. With Fubara strengthening his influence and forging key alliances, the decision-making power that used to be Wike’s alone is believed to be fading. This is compounded by Wike’s reported efforts to meddle in Imo State politics by backing Samuel Anyanwu to be next governor.

An elder and political force, Sotonye Ijuye Dagogo, who is a strong Wike opposer, said he had it on good authority that pro-Wike Rivers State House of Assembly were preparing to re-decamp from APC to PDP in a desperate bid to secure tickets to return to the Assembly or contest other elections.

The story is that the Assembly members, unlikely to get APC tickets, were now plotting a return to the PDP to contest.

This follows whispers that President Tinubu has directed all aspirants for state and national assembly seats to approach their state governors for endorsement.

He said: “Rather than seeking tickets from Gov Fubara, these Assemblymen are opting to return to the PDP. They prefer to stay with their leader, the FCT Minister — the self-acclaimed national leader of the PDP.

“The move back to PDP is telling. It confirms there has been no genuine reconciliation between the governor and these lawmakers. It signals that, if re-elected alongside Fubara, they will continue the confrontation.”

He said: “Gov Fubara must therefore ensure the same clarity on his own side. Rivers people must not be confused about his candidates. The ballot must be definite and decisive.

“The governor must field a ballot with people who are unambiguously ‘Simplified’, with high-visibility, battle-tested loyalists. No new faces to confuse voters.” He gave some names of those that have weight enough to make the Fubara camp acceptable to the Rivers electorate.

He stated: “Gov Fubara cannot afford to be careless. He should give way now, if he’s not ready. This is not the time for sentiment or emotion. This is a rescue mission — a war of liberation. It demands sacrifice. There is no room for guesswork. The governor’s supporters at all levels must subordinate personal ambition to the survival of Rivers State. There is no time to check time. Nomination forms are already on sale.”

Maryjane Nwankwo, a female commentator, said fubara is in trouble and he knows it. With is satire, she said Wike is setting up a net for Fubara by pushing two governorship aces in both the APC and PDP. “This is why Fubara’s camp is already feeling the pressure. Because this is not just about winning votes anymore… it’s about structure. Who controls what. Who holds the real power behind the scenes?

“And from what insiders are saying, if Fubara tries to fight from inside APC, it won’t be easy at all. Not even close. They’re saying he doesn’t control the grassroots. He doesn’t control the party structure. And in Nigerian politics, that’s everything. One source even said it bluntly — winning that APC ticket would be a ‘Herculean task’ for him.”

Nwankwo jeers at detractors saying maybe Fubara should have resigned earlier. She however hinted that Fubara had a meeting with Alex Otti over the weekend. No clear explanation. No press noise. Just a quiet meeting that ended with more questions than answers. Is he eyeing the Labour Party? “Because honestly, once meetings like that start happening quietly, something is usually cooking.”

One other aggressive political analyst, Kate Mgbor, floats a theory that bringing Chinda to fight for governorship may be Wike’s hidden plan to plant his son in the Federal House.

She wrote: “Wike’s strategy involves having Chinda removed from the Federal House of Representatives, allowing his son, Jordan Wike, to take Chinda’s place as the member representing the people of Obio/Akpor constituency.

“Wike employed a similar tactic against Magnus Abe, forcing him out of the Senate chamber until President Tinubu stepped in and helped Abe regain his footing.”

She counselled Chinda to be cautious, but said: “The people of Rivers are not gullible. One individual or family cannot dictate the fate of an entire state forever. The notion of one man, one family, holding every seat from governor to representative, from LGA to councillor, is unacceptable.

“Obio/Akpor belongs to its people, not to any political dynasty. If Jordan Wike wishes to contest, he should campaign like every other Nigerian. No more backdoor anointing. Rivers is not a monarchy. Democracy must prevail.”

Now, news is breaking that the APC Governors’ Forum has removed Uzodinma as chairman. Another hint counters it. There is confusion everywhere.

Many said it that Wike will never fold his hands and allow his plans crash. He must have made a big move to the extent of bulldozing the bulldozer out of position that could hurt the FCT Minister.

Many say if Wike can easily bring down Uzodinma using 20 governors, it means pushing Fubara out or stopping him from controlling the list or deciding Rivers 2027 may be very high on his agenda. It is clear it is a fight he will not want to lose. The Presidency must have known the meaning of bulldozing Uzodinma out. It must be a signal that even the Presidency cannot stop the man they call ‘High Tension’ in Rivers State.

The road is still rough and naked wires still litter ahead for Fubara.