Makinde’s entry into presidential race complicates southern calculations ahead 2027

The entrance of Seyi Makinde into the 2027 presidential race on the platform of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) has triggered intense political conversations across the country, with analysts warning that the growing number of southern contenders may significantly reshape the dynamics of the next presidential election.

The Oyo State Governor’s declaration, which took place last Thursday at an elaborate ceremony, is already being viewed as a development capable of altering existing political alignments, particularly within the South, where multiple influential politicians are either already in the race or widely expected to contest.

With President Bola Ahmed Tinubu certain to be the candidate of the APC, seeking a second term, alongside Peter Obi, of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and Adewale Adebayo of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), observers say Makinde’s emergence further widens the southern field and raises fresh concerns about vote fragmentation.

Political analysts argue that while the North has historically demonstrated stronger voting coordination during presidential contests, the South may head into 2027 with competing political interests, multiple power centres, and divided loyalties.

For other observers, the four southern presidential aspirants is a drawback to the opposition’s chance of unseating the incumbent in the presidential race. They stated that it would have been more strategic if they had united under a particular candidate.

“It is obvious that the Southern votes will be divided among Tinubu, Adebayo, Makinde and Obi, considering the fact that the election will be predominantly influenced by ethnicity/tribalism and other factors,” Kunle Okunade, political analyst, told BusinessDay.

“Having four presidential candidates in the South alone gives any northern candidate an edge. Although the North votes will not be bulky and one sided as it usually used to be, more damage will be to the southern votes and candidates.”

The analyst further stated that the south would lose because the current dynamics favour northern candidates, since the North has the highest votes.

Similarly, Kunle Adebisi, political analyst, said Makinde’s entrance into the presidential race changes the equation completely, stressing that If four strong southern candidates remain on the ballot till election day, the region risks dividing its political strength while the North potentially rallies around fewer options.

According to him, the battle for 2027 may no longer simply be about party popularity, but about strategic coalition-building and regional arithmetic.

“The moment multiple candidates from the same region begin competing aggressively against one another, the advantage naturally shifts to the region that negotiates better politically,” he added.

Makinde’s supporters, however, dismiss claims that his candidacy would weaken the South politically. They insist the Oyo Governor represents a new generation of leadership capable of attracting support beyond ethnic and regional lines.

Laja Adeoye, Makinde’s close-ally and PDP-APM coalition gubernatorial candidate in Lagos backed the bid, stressing that the move strengthens Nigeria national coalition and shows efforts at building a serious opposition front to rescue the country from current hardship.

He dismissed those against the Oyo governor’s ambition.

According to Adeoye, Seyi Makinde’s presidential ambition under the PDP-APM alliance is to rescue Nigeria.

“His impressive track record of infrastructure development, good governance, and people-focused leadership in Oyo makes him a credible alternative for Nigeria”, Adeoye told BusinessDay.

A chieftain of the APM, who also spoke, argued that Nigeria’s political future should not be reduced to regional calculations alone.

The politician who did not want his name in print, stated that Makinde is entering the race because Nigerians are demanding competence, stability, and practical governance.

Read also: Makinde declares presidential ambition as PDP, APM unveil alliance

“This is not about splitting votes. This is about giving Nigerians another credible alternative”, he said.

The official also maintained that many young voters and professionals are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the major parties and may be willing to support a fresh movement if properly organised.

Within opposition circles, Makinde’s entry is already generating mixed reactions. While some politicians see it as an opportunity to expand opposition visibility, others fear it could weaken efforts to build a united front against the ruling party.

Dipo Oguntusi, political commentator, said he was not surprised by Makinde’s entrance into the presidential race, stressing that it was politics, but a disadvantage to the south.

According to him, It is part of the system, the more the merrier. It will split the votes of the opposition against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

“Whether they are southerners or northerners, the opposition ought to be united if they want to defeat the incumbent or else we will have a repeat of 2023 and it would be congratulations to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in advance,” he stated.

By the same token, another political analyst described the development as politically risky, noting that the opposition has not fully recovered from the mistakes of 2023.

He said that every politician wants to run, without a strong alliance, stressing that it becomes easier for the dominant structure to survive.

He warned that unless opposition parties begin negotiations early, the South could enter the election deeply fragmented.

“In politics, numbers matter. Emotion alone does not win elections,” a politician stated.

Several analysts believe the increasing number of southern aspirants could shift greater political bargaining power toward the North, especially if northern blocs succeed in building consensus around fewer candidates.

Fatima Lawal, a political sociologist based in Kaduna, said the unfolding situation reflects the continuing struggle over power rotation and regional influence in Nigeria.

“What we are seeing is the early stage of a major political realignment,” she said. “The South appears ambitious but divided, while northern politicians may adopt a more strategic waiting game before fully showing their cards.”

She noted that presidential elections in Nigeria are rarely decided by popularity alone, stressing that alliances, party structures, and regional negotiations often determine the final outcome.

Despite the concerns, some supporters believe Makinde’s candidacy could energise political participation, especially among younger Nigerians frustrated with the country’s economic and governance challenges.

Civil society groups have also argued that a wider field of candidates may strengthen democracy by expanding voter choices and forcing parties to focus more on ideas and performance rather than traditional political dominance.