June 12 throws challenge for INEC ahead of 2027

…Public trust erodes as voter turnout hits historic lows

Thirty-three years ago, Nigerians queued patiently under the sun to elect a president in what remains one of the most celebrated elections in the country’s history. The military annulled the outcome, but it could not erase the lesson of June 12: when citizens trust the electoral process, they participate enthusiastically. Today, that trust has eroded so profoundly that more than seven out of every 10 registered voters stayed away from the polls in the 2023 elections. Ahead of 2027, the challenge confronting Nigeria is no longer how to conduct elections, but how to convince Nigerians that voting still matters.

The election, widely believed to have been won by Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale (MKO) Abiola, remains one of the freest and fairest polls in Nigeria’s history.

June 12 occupies a sacred place in Nigeria’s democratic memory. The day has been immortalised as Democracy Day and declared a national public holiday. Politicians invoke its symbolism. Speeches are delivered in honour of those who fought military rule.

But beyond the ceremonies and rhetoric, June 12 now poses an uncomfortable question to Nigeria’s electoral authorities and political elite:

What happened to the faith Nigerians once had in the ballot box?

As the country inches towards the 2027 general elections, the answer may determine not only voter turnout but the legitimacy of the next government.

The significance of June 12 lies not only in the credibility of the election itself but in what it represented. The country had endured years of military dictatorship and broken transition promises. Nigerians desperately wanted civilian rule. The electorate approached the polls with unusual determination.

There was no social media mobilisation. There were no sophisticated voter education campaigns. Yet Nigerians turned out in large numbers because they believed their votes mattered.

“Hope” was the technology that powered the election. The process itself reinforced that belief. The Open Ballot System, popularly known as Option A4, allowed voters to queue openly behind their preferred candidates. Though imperfect, the process was simple, transparent and difficult to manipulate at the polling-unit level. The results were announced openly, fostering public confidence in the outcome.

People trusted the system enough to participate. That trust became the true legacy of June 12.

The democracy participation crisis

Three decades later, that trust appears to have evaporated. Nigeria’s voter turnout has been on a steady decline since the return to democratic rule. A total of 93,469,008 registered voters but the total number of actual votes cast during the presidential election was 24,900,755.

While voter turnout stood at 57.5 percent in the 1999 elections, it has dropped significantly over the years. By the 2023 general elections, turnout had plummeted to a historic low of just 26.7 percent.

More than seven out of every 10 registered voters stayed away from the polls. The decline is alarming.

It is happening despite improvements in voter registration systems, expanded access to Permanent Voter Cards and growing political awareness among citizens.

The question, therefore, is not whether Nigerians are interested in politics. It is whether they still believe participation makes a difference.

“I have done my PVC since 2019, but I have never voted in an election,” said Adewole Adisa, a young Nigerian in his early thirties. “I don’t think that will change next year. I do not believe that votes count.”

The trust deficit

Civil society organisations, election observers and democracy advocates point to a combination of factors behind the growing voter apathy.

Among them is the failure of electoral technology to consistently deliver on its promises.

The 2023 elections were expected to mark a turning point in Nigeria’s electoral history. The Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal were promoted as innovations that would enhance transparency and strengthen public confidence.

Instead, technical glitches during the elections, particularly the failure to upload presidential election results to the IReV portal in real time as earlier promised, fuelled widespread suspicion.

For many Nigerians, it reinforced an old fear: that votes cast may not necessarily count.

Security concerns have also played a role. Memories of ballot-box snatching, political thuggery, intimidation and violence continue to discourage participation. In some communities, the fear of being caught in election-related violence outweighs the desire to exercise civic rights.

Then there is disillusionment. Years of unfulfilled campaign promises, worsening economic hardship and rising unemployment have left many citizens, particularly young people, questioning whether elections improve their lives.

The distance between campaign rhetoric and governance outcomes appears wider than ever.

Speaking at the June 12 edition of The Platform, organised by The Covenant Nation in Lagos, Olusegun Adeniyi, former presidential spokesman, captured the crisis in plain terms.

“At its core, Nigeria’s voter apathy crisis is about trust, or rather, the catastrophic erosion of trust,” he said.

“Therefore, the uncomfortable truth our political class must face is that the democracy we practise does not impact enough Nigerians to make them care about voting.”

According to Adeniyi, the declining turnout figures reveal a dangerous trajectory.

“The trajectory is unmistakable. With each election cycle, more Nigerians are choosing not to choose. Meanwhile, this problem is associated with all our elections and not just the presidential.”

The implications extend beyond electoral statistics. “Our politicians have been quick to celebrate their victories and issue acceptance speeches about mandate and democratic legitimacy, but there is a question they must now confront: what does it mean to govern with the consent of so few?

“The question is not whether Nigerians want to vote; the registration numbers prove they do. The question is whether they believe their vote matters.

“Until citizens can see a clear line between the ballot and a better life, the silence at the polls will only grow louder. Yet history shows that when people give up on the ballot, they find other ways to make their voices heard, and those ways are rarely peaceful or orderly,” Adeniyi said.

His warning echoes one of democracy’s oldest truths: legitimacy depends not merely on winning elections, but on citizens believing in the integrity of the process.

The June 12 lessons for INEC

As preparations gradually begin for the 2027 elections, June 12 offers important lessons for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Credibility matters more than technology

The 1993 election succeeded without electronic transmission, biometric accreditation or online portals. Its greatest strength was public confidence. Technology can enhance transparency, but it cannot substitute trust.

INEC must ensure that every innovation it introduces works as promised. When institutions fail to meet public expectations, they damage confidence far more than if no promises had been made at all.

Transparency must be immediate

One of the enduring memories of June 12 was the openness of the process. Voters understood how the results emerged.

The more transparent elections become, the harder it is for conspiracy theories and suspicion to thrive. Real-time communication, prompt explanations during disruptions and consistent adherence to established procedures are essential.

Security is part of electoral integrity

Citizens should not have to choose between their safety and their right to vote. Protecting polling units from violence, prosecuting electoral offenders and dismantling the culture of impunity around election-related crimes must become national priorities.

Rules must apply equally

The perception that powerful individuals can manipulate institutions without consequences weakens democratic participation.

Electoral laws should be enforced consistently, regardless of political affiliation. Trust grows when citizens believe the rules apply to everyone.

The lessons for Nigerians

June 12 also carries lessons for citizens. The men and women who queued under the sun in 1993 understood that democracy demanded participation.

Many voted despite uncertainty, aware that military authorities could still undermine the process. They showed remarkable civic courage. Today’s frustration with governance is understandable. But withdrawal carries its own risks.

When citizens abandon the electoral process entirely, they surrender political space to those willing to exploit low participation.

Democracy weakens when its citizens become spectators. Voting alone may not transform society overnight. Yet refusing to vote guarantees that others will decide the country’s future.

As the country heads towards 2027, the challenge before INEC is not merely to organise another election. It is to convince Nigerians that their votes will count.

The challenge before political leaders is not simply to seek mandates. It is to govern in ways that make democracy meaningful.

And the challenge before citizens is to decide whether disappointment will breed disengagement or renewed determination.

Three decades after June 12, Nigeria has mastered the ritual of elections. What remains uncertain is whether it can recover the spirit that made one election in 1993 endure in the nation’s collective memory. Until then, for many Nigerians, democracy may still be on holiday.