How consensus is killing Nigeria’s democracy

In reality consensus is designed to promote unity within political parties, reduce the cost of primaries, and prevent divisive contests.

However, observers say the way it is being practised by political actors in Nigeria is increasingly undermining internal democracy in parties, concentrating power in the hands of a few political elites while sidelining party members.

Experts say consensus arrangements is weakening public trust in the electoral process.

Across major political platforms such as the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), consensus candidacy has become a recurring feature of party primaries.

Party leaders often defend the approach as a pragmatic solution to internal conflicts. But analysts argue that it has gradually evolved into a mechanism for control rather than consensus in its true democratic sense.

But despite the controversy, it has generated, the Electoral Act 2026, has significantly narrowed the options available to political parties. By scrapping indirect primaries, the law now compels parties to choose candidates either through direct primaries, where all registered members vote, or through consensus, a process that demands total agreement among aspirants.

On paper, consensus appears to be the easier route. In practice, it is proving to be one of the most contentious.

The law is explicit. Under Section 84(9), no aspirant can be coerced into stepping down; each must provide written consent. Where even a single aspirant refuses, the party is legally bound to conduct a direct primary.

That provision, designed to deepen internal democracy, is now causing ripples in parties ahead of the 2023 general election. For example, in the APC, the adoption of consensus to choose candidates for different elective positions is generating crisis in several states, with multiple power blocs, entrenched interests, and ambitions that are unwilling to yield.

For example, in Ogun State, the consensus arrangements is pitching two prominent politicians against each other over the senatorial ticket for Ogun East senatorial district.

Gbenga Daniel, senator representing Ogun East, was barred from attending a caucus meeting of the APC where the senatorial candidate was chosen.

The senatorial ticket was given to Governor Dapo Abiodun; however, Daniel could not even enter the venue of the party gathering last Monday in Ijebu Ode area of the state.

A viral video on X shows the moment the senator’s convoy was denied access to the premises of Adeola Odutola hall in Ijebu Ode, where the meeting was in progress.

Addressing his supporters from a white bus outside the venue of the event, Daniel said any decision made at the sit-down would be invalid.

“We are here for our Ogun East APC caucus meeting, but surprisingly, we have been barred. We are told that we can’t enter, but let it be said that whatever they do here today is null and void,” he said in Yoruba.

As the primary election window opens from April 23 to May 30, 2026, observers say the early signs suggest that the consensus arrangements could lead to internal wrangling in the major parties, if not handled properly, because aspirants who lose out may be aggrieved.

Such is the case in the ruling party in Lagos State, often seen as the party’s political stronghold, is already showing signs of strain.

Strong indications that Deputy Governor, Obafemi Hamzat may have been pencilled down as a consensus candidate have not gone down well with other aspirants. Among them is Abdul-Azeez Adediran (Jandor), who has openly rejected the arrangement and is pushing for a direct primary, setting the stage for a potential confrontation.

In few states, the APC has managed to impose order. In Ogun State, Solomon Adeola Olamilekan Yayi emerged through a consensus arrangement, he is the senator representing Ogun West, for them, question of who will be the party’s governorship candidate, appears settled, at least for now. But elsewhere, the cracks are widening.

There is a brewing crisis in Nasarawa State over the unilateral endorsement of Senator Ahmed Wadada Aliyu as gubernatorial consensus candidate of the APC by Governor Abdullahi Sule. Sule had recently visited President Tinubu at the Presidential Villa where he presented Wadada as the anointed choice. There was no consultation with the people or the leaders of the party in the state.

One of those who are vehemently opposing the development is Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, a former governor of the state, who felt that Governor Sule was taking the people for a ride.

Seun Okeowo, political analyst, said consensus is not totally bad if the letters of the law is obeyed, stressing that the law states that consensus should give way for direct primary if other aspirants disagree with the chosen candidate.

According to him, “t is a fall-out of the new Electoral Law. But it appears this is not being followed and the issue of consensus would create crises in the various states of the federation.

“It is something that would be difficult to operate as most of the other aspirants are interested in the offices,” Okeowo told BusinessDay.

Other analysts argue that consensus, as currently practised, is less about broad agreement and more about elite negotiation. They stressed that decisions on candidates are frequently made behind closed doors by powerful stakeholders, governors, party executives, and influential financiers.

before being presented to party members as a unified choice.

“Consensus in itself is not undemocratic,” says Jide Ojo, a political analyst and public affairs commentator.

“The problem arises when it is manipulated to impose candidates on party members rather than reflect their collective will.”

His position reflects a growing concern among observers that what is labeled consensus often lacks transparency and genuine participation.

Temitope Musowo, public policy expert said the nature and desperation of the political class would make consensus arrangements fail in Nigeria, the academic stressed that institutionalising consensus arrangements in the Electoral Act was a wrong decision.

Musowo stated that if democracy is to grow in Nigeria internal democracy must be encouraged by stakeholders to deepen participation and sense of belongings among party members.

According to him, “I do not support consensus arrangements because it gives undue advantage to some aspirants, I don’t know if our democracy is ready for that.

“It could even save parties a lot of trouble, if they conduct open primary and those that lose go home knowing they tried their best.”

Political analysts say consensus arrangements often contribute to the erosion of internal party democracy.

Delegates and grassroots members, who should play a central role in candidate selection, are frequently excluded from meaningful participation. Instead of competitive primaries, parties stage what many critics describe as “rubber-stamp” processes.

Sam Amadi, director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, said when internal party processes are compromised, the legitimacy of the entire democratic system is weakened.

He argues that democracy does not begin at the general election but within the internal structures of political parties.

Beyond participation, consensus also undermines merit and competition. In a system where candidates are selected through negotiation rather than contest, competence, credibility, and popular support may take a back seat to loyalty and political bargaining.

Over time, this creates a leadership pipeline that is less accountable to citizens and more beholden to elite interests.

For many young Nigerians and first-time political participants, this trend reinforces a sense of exclusion. Without open competition, opportunities for new entrants are limited, further entrenching the dominance of established political figures.

Experts say consensus often fails to achieve its stated goal of unity. While it is intended to prevent disputes, it frequently generates resentment among aspirants who feel pressured to step down. This has led to increased cases of defections, internal litigation, and factional crises within parties.

“Rather than resolving conflicts, imposed consensus can deepen divisions,” notes Cheta Nwanze, Lead Partner at SBM Intelligence. “When stakeholders feel excluded from the process, they are more likely to challenge outcomes or withdraw support entirely.”