From ADC to NDC: Coincidence or new strategy to shrink the opposition?

Barely two weeks after a Federal High Court ordered the deregistration of five opposition political parties, another court decision has thrown a newly-registered political party into uncertainty, fuelling concerns that Nigeria’s opposition is coming under coordinated legal and political pressure ahead of the 2027 general election.

The sequence of events has sparked a debate over whether the rulings are isolated judicial decisions or part of a broader strategy to narrow the country’s democratic space by weakening opposition platforms.

The first development came on June 15 when Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court in Abuja ordered the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to deregister the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Accord (A), Action Peoples Party (AAP), Action Alliance (AA) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).

The court held that the parties failed to meet the constitutional performance threshold required under Section 225A of the 1999 Constitution.

The suit, filed by the National Forum of Former Legislators, argued that the parties neither secured the minimum electoral performance prescribed by law nor won elective offices to justify retaining their registration.

However, the judgement suffered an immediate setback after the Court of Appeal stayed its execution, rebuking the trial judge for proceeding with the matter despite an earlier order halting further proceedings.

Before the dust settled, another Federal High Court in Lokoja, Kogi State, Friday, nullified the judgement that compelled INEC to register the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), ordering that the matter be heard afresh after ruling that the Peace Movement Party (PMP) was denied a fair hearing.

Although the court did not expressly order the deregistration of the NDC, the ruling effectively suspended the legal foundation upon which the party obtained its registration, prompting widespread reactions. The NDC immediately rejected the judgement and announced plans to head to the Court of Appeal.

Its National Chairman, Senator Moses Cleopas, argued that the trial court had become functus officio after delivering its final judgement and therefore, lacked jurisdiction to revisit the matter through a motion. He insisted the party remained validly registered and would participate in the 2027 elections.

The timing of the two court decisions has fuelled suspicion among opposition politicians and political analysts, many of whom believe the judiciary is increasingly becoming a battleground in the struggle for political power.

Chekwas Okorie, former presidential candidate and elder statesman, told BusinessDay that both cases were targeted at weakening major opposition figures ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

According to him, the ADC judgement was aimed at frustrating former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s political calculations, while the move against the NDC was intended to stop Peter Obi from contesting the 2027 presidential election.

Okorie argued that the NDC’s registration followed a valid court order that INEC implemented without appeal and maintained that the latest judgement would not survive appellate scrutiny.

Bernard Mikko, a political scientist, told BusinessDay that recent developments suggest Nigeria’s political space is being deliberately narrowed.

Read also: Appellate Court hears ADC, Accord Party, other deregistered parties’ appeal July 7

Mikko, a former federal lawmaker and ex-governorship aspirant in Rivers State, said in a telephone interview that the actions of the ruling party and the courts were raising concerns about the country’s democratic future.

“Well, I think for anybody, whether you’re a political analyst or an ordinary Nigerian, the pattern they see is that the political space has been narrowed and the ruling party is scared of a fair contest. So, they don’t want any contest in the country. And that is not what our constitution is about.

“Our constitution is about multi-party democracy. So, Nigerians should be vigilant on how our democracy is being managed by both the judiciary and the political process.

Otherwise, the judiciary will be used to throw the country into political turmoil, into the revolution which Nigerians are awaiting.

“The signs are getting closer and we should be careful not to constrict the political space. The other day, on the 15th, it was the ADC.

Yesterday, it was the NDC. I have gone through the judgement. Yes, I have gone through the judgement. This speculation has been there. The PDP is in turmoil.

“All the governors of the other parties have been forced into one single party, the APC. The push for state police is not for the sake of security but for the sake of controlling the votes of Nigerians.

“They believe that if all the governors are in one party, they will be in control of a single political platform. Sometimes, however, you don’t get the outcome you expect in life. Other things may happen.

“Nigerians should be very vigilant about how their political process and judicial system are being managed,” Mikko said.

Similarly, Peter Ameh, acting national chairman of the Conference of United Political Parties (CUPP) and former presidential candidate, described the Lokoja judgement as a politically-motivated attempt to weaken the opposition ahead of the 2027 election.

Ameh , a former National Chairman of the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), said in a statement on Saturday that the judegment reflected “the hand of Esau and the voice of Jacob” and accused the ruling APC of undermining democratic competition.

“It represents a failed APC government that is petrified of a free and fair election and is desperate to return to power for a second term without a transparent electoral contest,” he said. He also alleged that the ruling party was using the courts to weaken opposition parties ahead of the 2027 poll.

“Well-meaning Nigerians will mobilise supporters and the masses to rally against judicial manipulation and impunity. We will also sensitise the global community to what we see as the APC’s desperate effort to retain power by strangulating a virile opposition,” Ameh said.

Peter Obi also linked the latest development to his presidential ambition.

Speaking at a leadership programme in Anambra State, Obi said the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led federal government was doing everything possible to stop him from contesting the 2027 presidential poll but vowed not to be intimidated.

The Obidient Movement echoed similar concerns, describing the court ruling as another indication that the judiciary was being deployed to weaken opposition parties and move Nigeria towards a one-party state.

Nduka Odo, political analyst, also warned that the back-to-back court decisions had created the impression that the judiciary was becoming a tool for destabilising democratic competition.

“There is no democracy without opposition,” he said. He warned that weakening opposition parties could ultimately entrench one-party dominance.

However, top officials of the APC, including its National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda; National Secretary, Ajibola Bashiru; and National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, have consistently denied allegations that the ruling party is behind the crises in opposition parties, insisting that the challenges are self-inflicted and stem from internal divisions rather than external interference.

BusinessDay reports that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed August 19, 2026, for the commencement of campaigns for the presidential and National Assembly elections, while campaigns for the governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections will begin on September 9, 2026.

Under the revised timetable, the commission has scheduled the presidential and National Assembly elections for January 16, 2027, while the governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections will hold on February 6, 2027.

Whether the ADC and NDC cases are merely coincidences arising from separate legal disputes or early signs of a broader political strategy may ultimately be determined by the appellate courts.

But with less than seven months to the commencement of the 2027 election, the rulings have heightened anxiety over the shrinking space for opposition politics and the growing intersection between the courts and electoral competition.