The last day of the Premier League season brings an exciting finale with two spots in the top four up for grabs.
Chelsea, Manchester United and Leicester City are battling for two places in an all-important Champions League qualification spot.
All the three teams have had their chances to secure their place along with Liverpool and Manchester City, but dips in form mean there is only a point separating Manchester United on 63 and Chelsea and Leicester City on 62.
Leicester plays host to Man United at King Power Stadium on the last day in what is now a top-four play-off final, while Chelsea faces a tough test as they welcome Wolves to Stamford Bridge.
There is still plenty at stake at both ends of the Premier League table heading into the final game week. Liverpool and Manchester City have already secured Champions League football for next season but only two of Leicester, Chelsea, and Manchester United will join them.
Leicester have been sucked into the fight for a top-four finish after some woeful results post-lockdown. The Foxes had an eight-point lead on the fifth when football was suspended and now enter the final day of the season outside of the top four by a point. They host third-place United on Sunday, while Chelsea welcome high-flying Wolves.
At the opposite end of the table, Norwich is already resigned to finishing the 2019/20 campaign bottom after a remarkable run of nine straight defeats but Watford, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa are all fighting for their lives to claim the final place above the bottom three. Villa (-26) are currently above Watford (-27), and out of the relegation zone, on goal difference after their shock 1-0 win over
Arsenal coincided with Watford’s damaging 4-0 defeat to Manchester City in midweek. Bournemouth, meanwhile, is three points back on their relegation rivals but have the same goal difference as Watford.
With so much at play, it’s difficult working out exactly what this team is required to do to achieve their objective.
Here are possible permutations on the final day of the season for deciding the top four and relegation teams.
Top Four Battle
Manchester United
A win of any kind for Manchester United away to Leicester will secure third place no matter what Chelsea does.
Defeat for Leicester would see them miss out on the top four. They can mathematically finish sixth but they have a +15 better goal difference than Wolves heading into the final game.
A draw would be enough for Manchester United to finish in the top four but they would drop down from third to fourth if Chelsea wins against Wolves.
A draw would only be good enough for Leicester to finish fourth if Chelsea loses at home to Wolves due to their superior goal difference over Frank Lampard’s side.
Leicester City
Man United could still secure a top-four finish on Sunday even with defeat to Leicester City but would need Wolves to win at Chelsea to claim fourth.
A win for Leicester would see Brendan Rodgers’ side return to the top four and qualify for the Champions League. In order to finish third, they would need to better Chelsea’s result against Wolves.
Chelsea
Chelsea will secure a top-four finish if they beat Wolves at home on Sunday. They can only get third if they better Manchester United’s result at Leicester.
A point for Chelsea would be enough to finish in the top four regardless of Manchester United and Leicester’s result but they would only claim fourth.
Chelsea can lose at home to Wolves and still finish fourth but would need Manchester United to win away at Leicester.
Relegation Battle
Aston Villa
Aston Villa would only be guaranteed safety with a win against West Ham if Watford fails to beat Arsenal. If Watford also wins, Villa’s winning margin can be one less than Watford’s, therefore finishing the season level on goal difference, but Dean Smith’s side would still stay up on goals scored.
Villa will avoid relegation with a point on the final day of the season if Watford does not beat Arsenal.
Villa can still avoid relegation with defeat to West Ham but would require Bournemouth not beating Everton and Watford losing to Arsenal. If Aston Villa and Watford both lose, then Villa margin of defeat cannot be greater than two goals compared to Watford’s otherwise they will trade places in the table on goal difference.
Watford
Watford would avoid relegation with a win over Arsenal if Villa loses or draw to West Ham. If Villa wins, Watford’s winning margin would need to be 2+ compared to Villa’s.
Also, a draw would be enough for Watford to beat the drop but only if Aston Villa lose to West Ham.
Watford could still stay up if they lose to Arsenal but would require Bournemouth failing to beat Everton and Villa’s margin of defeat to be at least two goals greater than their own.
Bournemouth
Bournemouth will have to win have any chance of beating the drop. They would also need Villa and Watford to both lose their respective matches. They are relegated if they lose or draw.
