The rampaging devastation caused by the coronavirus has affected the political development in several countries of the world. In at least fifty (50) countries and territories across the globe that scheduled election in 2020, the pandemic has caused several countries to postpone national and sub-national elections. Analysts posit that this may have far-reaching constitutional implications for many countries.
There are however, at least eighteen (18) countries and territories that have decided to hold national or sub-national elections as originally planned despite concerns related to COVID-19.
The likes of Togo, Taiwan, Israel, and Greece were lucky to have held their respective general elections before the pandemic peaked this year, yet South Korea, against all odds, and considering the fact that it was at the heat of the battle to curtail the spread of the virus, held her legislative election on April 15, 2020 with 66.2 percent turnout.
While the Koreans acted against all security, health and safety measures by holding the polls, many countries are postponing their elections this year.
Earlier in March, the United Kingdom announced the postponement of local and mayoral elections due May this year until May 2021 to mitigate the impact of coronavirus. Bolivian and Dominican Republic have also postponed their general elections this May for at least one month, also due to coronavirus pandemic.
In Africa
Ghana had originally scheduled its Presidential and National Assembly election for December 7, 2020 but as it stands now the election may have been postponed as the pandemic has not spared West Africa. Cote d’Ivoire, another West African country may toe the same line of postponement of its Presidential election originally scheduled for October 31, 2020.
Mali’s National Assembly election initially billed for May 2020; Burkina Faso’s presidential and National Assembly election earlier scheduled for November, 2020; Senegal’s local elections due for December 2020; Tanzania’s Presidential and National Assembly election for 2020; Egypt’s House of Representatives election due between April and May, all stand to be postponed because of the pandemic. Even if some of them manage to how, it may not be as smooth as originally planned.
In Ethiopia, where postal voting cannot hold due to lack of logistics, Mekonnen Fisseha, assistant professor of Law at Mekelle University, noted the country has to find a way around it as that Ethiopia’s constitution demands that an election should be held every five years and failure to do that is considered an unconstitutional act. “The parliament cannot extend its own terms”, he said.
The fear for many in Ethiopia is that the election, with over $100 million allocation and support from international donors, is meant to test the country’s recent reforms and failure to do that this year will further jeopardize the country’s fragile peace.
ln Nigeria by-elections for senatorial district in Bayelsa, Imo and Plateau scheduled for March 2020) will have to wait until the situation improves as the Nigerian Federal Government has locked down Abuja its capital; Lagos, its commercial nerve centre and the most populous state in the country, as well as Ogun State in South West Nigeria. Other states of the Nigerian federation have also placed restrictions on movement to contain the spread of the virus.
This may also affect the gubernatorial elections in Edo and Ondo States slated for October and November, respectively, the timetable of which had since been published by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Some other African countries where elections have been postponed according to reports include; all municipal by-elections and voter registration activities in South Africa originally planned for March-May 2020; Municipal elections in Hassi El Ferid, and Jbeniana, Tunisia, (originally scheduled for 28-29 March 2020; parliamentary elections in Ethiopia earlier scheduled for 29 August 2020 as well as by-elections, Kenya originally scheduled for April, June-July 2020, have all been postponed due to the virus.
Americas
In the United States and Latin America, most elections have been shifted because of the virus. They include; Primary elections in 15 states across the USA and several local elections around the country originally scheduled for March – May 2020; Municipal elections in the Cordovan City of Río Cuarto, Argentina originally scheduled for 29 March 2020; by-elections, City of Victoria, Canada earlier scheduled 4 April 2020) and supplementary election for the position of senator in Mato Grosso, Brazil originally scheduled for 26 April 2020 among others.
Asia
Asia has its share of postponed elections. They include Rajya Sabha elections in India originally scheduled for 26 March 2020; By-elections in Pakistan earlier scheduled for March 2020; Local council elections in Maldives originally scheduled for 4 April 2020; Local elections, Kyrgyzstan originally scheduled for 12 April 2020; Parliamentary elections in Syria originally scheduled for 13 April 2020, moved to 20 May 2020); Second round of parliamentary elections, Iran originally scheduled for 17 April 2020, moved to 11 September 2020 among others.
Europe
In Europe, France has postponed the second round of local elections in originally scheduled for 22 March 2020. Also shifted are local elections in Hessen and Saxony, Germany originally scheduled from April-October 2020. Regional elections in Euskadi and Galicia, Spain originally scheduled for 5 April 2020 and Parliamentary elections in North Macedonia originally scheduled for 12 April 2020 have all suffered similar fate just as constitutional referendum in Russia earlier scheduled for 22 April 2020.
In Poland, the government is seeking constitutional reform to ensure that the general election holds as scheduled on May 10, 2020 amid coronavirus pandemic. On April 6, 2020, the Sejm of the Republic of Poland, the lower house of the Polish parliament, passed a bill, which requires voting for the presidential election to be carried out by postal voting only.
According to the Sejm, postal voting is the safest means of voting in the pandemic era without contact and spreading of the virus.
Oceania
Local government elections in New South Wales, Australia for a year (originally scheduled for September 2020, among many others have also been postponed.
There are however, some countries that held elections and referendums in March 2020. These include; legislative elections in Israel 2 March 2020; general elections in Guyana 2 March 2020; Kuomintang chairperson elections, Taiwan held on 7 of March 2020) and many others.
Speaking with BDSUNDAY on Friday on the impact of the pandemic on elections across the world, Majeed Dahiru, public affairs analyst and columnist, said a lot of countries might have to find ways to actually conduct the elections in a different manner.
“I have noticed that there has been a systemic relaxation of the lockdown across the globe. We have seen plans by some countries to open their economy, we have seen new ways of actually maintaining social distancing to prevent human-to-human contacts without completely shutting the system by absolute isolation.
“I am thinking that when it comes to constitutional matters such as electoral cycle, which is very fundamental to any democracy in the world, it is my belief that certain ingenious ways of doing it without escalating the current health crisis across the world might be evolved over time,” Dahiru said.
“I see a healthy compromise being achieved to allow election on one hand in a manner that does not compromise the health of the people in question,” he said.
Archa Opong, a Ghanaian public analyst, thinks that elections are not issues now as safety of lives is given priority all over the world. “If the virus pandemic persists and Ghana cannot hold elections, there will be a review of constitution to allow emergency leadership or current parliament to elect an interim team”, Opong explained.
In the same vein, Derek Stevenson, an African-American, said United States of America has once had a president appointed and not elected by the people. “Gerald Rudolph Ford Jr. was appointed the 38th American president during emergency situation. So, if the US presidential election cannot hold in November, the congress will amend the law to get an interim government until proper election is conducted’, he said.
Opnong fears that interim government may not work in Africa, especially in war-torn countries where the military is looking for any opportunity to take over power from civilians.
“If elections did not hold in Guinea, Burundi, Central African Republic, and Côte d’Ivoire this year, you may be inviting the military back to politics. Political opponents may likely influence unrest and violence even when everybody knows it is coronavirus that is holding back elections”, he noted.
But if the current situation happened last year, when Nigeria held her general elections, many believe that the political actors would have rescheduled the election date earlier without the ninth-hour cancellation or inconclusive results due to the fear that the opposition would take advantage of the delay.
“If the virus outbreak was in 2019, the present government would have been proactive to hold the elections even in December or January without delays, while the May 29th swear-in ceremony would be done online. Politicians are master tacticians too”, Ganiyu Erezi, a lawyer said.
But in the case of no elections, Erezi explained that an interim government would be in place until when elections can hold, like in the case of Ernest Shonekan.
Analysts say that the postponement or inability to hold these elections could thrown up a constitutional crisis in some countries if the situation remains the same in the next few months and leaves a big legal question.
Unlike, the western world, the situation could be more worrisome in Africa where elections have always had ethnic and religious colouration and could easily lead to another political crisis.
John Bayeisha, a lawyer and senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN), said: “I think the elections would still hold in most places; in fact, South Korea had an election last week. In America, they have found a way around it; the concluding part of the debates was also held.
“They are not holding open debates, the debates are without people in the hall, or few people; we are seeing it from here. The only thing is that the mode of campaigns would be affected, I mean large gathering of the people attending these campaigns.”
Bayeisha further said that constitutions across the world do not envisage a crisis of any form, adding that it was only in Nigeria that people often refuse to adapt to situations.
“It is only here in Nigeria that we find it difficult to adapt to situations; there is no constitutional provision for a lacuna. Even in Nigeria here the courts are on hold and shut. We can’t go to court and even election petition cases; they would ask you to bring in few people.
“Most international laws do not envisage for a crisis period, even during war time elections were held in some places; the people went out to vote,” he added.
Lawal Pedro, a lawyer and senior advocate of Nigeria (SAN), said that if the current health crisis persists and affects the dates fixed for the beginning of campaigns for both gubernatorial elections in Ondo and Edo States, there may be need for ‘doctrine of necessity’ to be implemented which would warrant INEC to change the dates for both elections.
“We don’t pray the pandemic lasts long but here in Nigeria there is time for campaigns and I don’t see how electronic and indoor campaigns can work here and be effective.
“We may have found ourselves in an unfamiliar situation the doctrine of necessity would have to come into play. The date of the elections may be shifted forward. If the candidates complain that they don’t have time to campaign a new date may be set.
“We have principles of necessity, it can be activated we have them in law, and we just hope our people continue to obey the social distancing so we can continue with our normal work,” he added.
OBINNA EMELIKE and INIOBONG IWOK (Lagos); INNOCENT ODOH (Abuja)
