What may shape the outcome of the presidential poll – Sylvester Odion

Akhaine Sylvester Odion is a professor of Political Science and expert on international affairs. In this exclusive interview with INIOBONG IWOK, he assesses the chances of the presidential candidates, predicting the likely winner. Excerpts:

• Who among the presidential candidates do you think may win and why?

I think Tinubu may win and the reason is because he belongs to the second most powerful power bloc in the country, which is the South West power bloc and he is going to get substantial votes within that power bloc. And it appears now the majority have adopted him and he is going to get a block of votes from the South West, it does not mean that other parties would not get votes.

The other point is that, among the Northern power elite, there are those who believe that power should rotate between the North and South Nigeria as the only recipe for stability and they are deposed for the Southern presidency. I am talking about people like Governor Danguje, Tanko Yakasai and so many of them.

These people have said power should go to the South and with that geniusness it may go to Tinubu. Don’t forget that they understand Tinubu more than Obi.

What about Atiku Abubakar, what would work against him?

What would work against Atiku is the relation of power, in which people are running away from.
Relation of power means where power is domiciled at this point in time. It has been domiciled in the North in the last eight years. So, significantly the political elite now have a claim that power must come to the South.

That is the greatest impediment to Atiku’s emergence, which is why if he emerges, he may have to contend with a crisis in the South and he is already anticipating that, which is why he said he is going to form a government of national unity.
You know it is usually invoked when the power balance is destabilised; you want to bring people on board for political stability.

Would you say what could affect Atiku is the crisis with the five governors in the PDP?

The way the party structure works in Nigeria, the governors have a firm hold of the party structure and therefore, because they dispense largess of office, they dispense public goods they have control of the electorate.

Electorates in most third countries do not exercise free will, their will is determined by the party leadership and structure. I am not saying there is no exception and that is where Wike matters.
They could not campaign in Rivers that tells you what the atmosphere in the election would be. People would vote what the governors want, also the governors are putting the next man in power.
So, they have power, but it is not the biggest factor, the biggest factor is the relation of power between North and South. Don’t forget that he is a Fulani man, as the country is meant for Fulani’s alone.

Read also: What Atiku’s ‘covenant with Nigeria’ means for citizens

Different polls have predicted Peter Obi victory in recent months. What is your take?

How many people were used for the study, less than 4,000 is that a representative of the 93 million voters, even in statistics is not right.

Polls people can predict, but it is power politics that works. The way the party structure works is different, you may have discovered that some people who were in the Labour Party are already moving to APC.

What they do is that the dominant party sends their people to go and infiltrate other parties, take part in everything, and report back home a few days before the election.

When you hear people talk about party structure if you have not been to it you would not know. Polls prediction doesn’t work in a country like Nigeria, you have to look at the alignment of forces.

For instance, in those days in Benin, there was no amount of polls prediction people would look at, whoever the Oba supported; it is the end for the other candidates.

What did Peter Obi not do right?

Obi is using a platform whose ideological orientation he does not share. When they said he has no structure it is real. Hakeem Baba Ahmed said that he does not see how his brother and Obi would win because they don’t have structure.
It is crowd chasing, internet movement and the rest of them. Sowore said it someday ago that in the meeting with INEC, the LP was asking for the list of polling agents from them.

Sowore said that to show that they are not organised. The Labour Party does not have structure, structure does not mean a group of followers, I think that is why real politicians have called the Obi’s people as a movement, rather than a political party.

What is your take on Rabiu Kwankwaso chances?

Kwankwaso is going to impact on the permutation because he has his own followers, but don’t forget as I speak the Northern power bloc is working on Kwankwso to step down for Atiku and if that happens you would have a different permutation that may affect Tinubu’s chances.

Do you see a run off?

Even INEC has predicted that, if the sizeable number of supporters we have seen in Obidient movement is real then Obi can poll substantial votes that may lead to a rerun.

I mean a re-run in the sense that no party is able to poll one quarter of the votes in two third states including FCT. Elections as not been fair in Nigeria, but given the technology of electoral process we may see some degree of fairness.