A major aspect of the recently concluded Mission-300 Africa Energy Summit that was held in Dar Es Salam, Tanzania, from January 27 to 28, 2025, was the preparation and presentation of ‘energy compacts’ by 12 African countries, representing their plans and commitment to bringing reliable, affordable, inclusive, sustainable, and clean energy to 300 million Africans, thereby considerably increasing access to electricity by 2030. The 12 countries, including Nigeria are 7 francophone and 5 anglophone countries of Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Madagascar, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania and Zambia. The energy compacts based on a template prepared by the World Bank were developed by each of the 12 countries, detailing policies, strategies, and action plans aimed at surmounting long-standing technical and infrastructural constraints to delivering electricity to targeted populations and reflecting each country’s context and priorities.
For the avoidance of doubt, these energy ‘compacts’ are not formal agreements signed between counterparties. Rather, they represent political commitments to pursue and realise the goals and objectives the 12 countries have voluntarily set for themselves in their electric power sectors, with the international community as witnesses.
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Chad plans to provide electricity access to an additional 14 million people, increase access to clean cooking energy by 5 percent annually and increase the share of renewable energy in the total energy mix to 30 percent. Côte d’Ivoire plans to provide electricity to an additional 17 million people, expand access to renewable energy to 50 percent from 20 percent currently, and achieve 100 percent national access to electricity. DR Congo plans to increase access to electricity for 60 million people at the rate of 12 million people annually. DRC has already achieved 95 percent renewable energy in her energy mix, mostly from hydropower, and intends to attract $20 billion into its power sector. Madagascar hopes to increase access to electricity by 5.5 percent annually, reaching 80 percent coverage by 2030, with 85 percent renewable energy, including 75 percent hydro. Mauritania wants to expand its renewable energy contribution to its energy mix to 70 percent from 44.4 percent at present and attract $704.2 million into renewable energy. Niger is committed to most of its population of 27.2 million people having access to electricity by 2030. Senegal plans to achieve universal access to electricity by 2029, increase access to renewable energy to 40 percent from 29 percent in 2024, and give 15.8 million people access to clean cooking energy by 2030. Liberia is committed to providing access to 100,000 households annually by 2030, up from 70,000 annually at present; expanding power generation by 150 percent by 2030, while increasing renewable energy in the energy mix to 75 percent from the current 67 percent. Malawi commits to increasing access to electricity to 70 percent of households by 2031 from 63.7 percent and increasing the share of renewable energy in the energy mix to 96.1 percent and attracting $1.5 billion to grid expansion. Tanzania plans to increase national access to electric power to 75 percent, target 75 percent access to clean cooking by 2030, and 80 percent by 2034, while increasing the share of renewable energy to 75 percent in 2030—what might be dubbed “Tanzania’s triple goals of 75 percent.” Zambia hopes to achieve 100 percent electricity coverage, allow access to clean cooking technology to 40 percent of its population by 2030, and expand the non-hydropower component of its renewable energy from 3 percent to 33 percent of the total energy mix.
“For the avoidance of doubt, these energy ‘compacts’ are not formal agreements signed between counterparties.”
Nigeria’s National Energy Compact, which is “aligned with its National Electrification Strategy and Implementation Plan under preparation and the UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7), serves as a roadmap for accelerating the pace of access to energy towards ensuring affordable, reliable, inclusive, sustainable, and clean energy for the Nigerian people.” The Nigerian energy compact aims to achieve the following: 1) Accelerate the pace of access to electricity from 4% to 9% per annum; 2) increase the pace of access to clean cooking from 22% to 25% per annum to achieve universal access by 2030; 3) commit to increasing the renewable energy share in the generation mix from 22% to 50%; 4) enable, collaborate with, and mobilise the private sector “to play an increasingly critical role towards meeting these targets; and 5) mobilise US$15.5 billion in private investment for last mile electrification.”
To achieve these targets, some of which are patently ambitious, the Nigerian government is rolling out “a time-bound and realistic action plan” that “outlines the various reform actions to be taken across five pillars: (a) expanding power generation and investment into transmission and distribution infrastructure at competitive costs; (b) working towards financially viable utilities that provide reliable services; (c) incentivising private sector participation to unlock additional resources; (d) embracing distributed renewable energy (DRE) and clean cooking solutions for affordable last mile access; and (e) leveraging the benefits of increased regional integration.” These pillars are by and large drawn from the overall framework of Mission-300, whose guiding principles are founded on innovation, sustainability, inclusiveness, competitive pricing, multidimensional partnerships and collaborations, and global best practices.
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The following is Nigeria’s declaration of commitment to implementing its self-conceived and self-designed energy compact: “The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) is committed to providing reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity to all of Nigeria’s unelectrified population by 2030. Universal access will require an investment of over US$23 billion (only for last-mile access), including contributions from the public and private sectors and from end-users of electricity.”
A commitment on the part of the Federal Government of Nigeria to “providing reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity to all of Nigeria’s un-electrified population by 2030” is far-reaching and certainly very ambitious against the background of Nigeria’s perennial power crisis for over four decades. However, it must not be predicated upon the caveat of “Universal access will require an investment of over US$23 billion.” Many of us may still remember Professor Osita Nebo, who, as Minister of Power, stated in November 2014 that Nigeria and other West African countries needed $25 billion in investment for the next decade for reliable supply, or the “Housing for all by the year 2000” policy, which became an empty slogan. The mobilisation of “US$15.5 billion in private investment for last mile electrification” can only be realised through a clear and unequivocal policy of privatisation.
Mr Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos.
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