We can’t always control what makes us successful

A good deal of work in the social sciences tries to identify attributes that cause individuals to act in certain ways, from earning good grades in school to performing well in jobs. Historically, most workplace studies were done by psychologists. But with the rise of big data, the effort is now led by economists, data engineers, information technology operatives and anyone who has access to the data – including an ever-growing crowd of vendors making enticing claims about the benefits of their prediction software.

Even a small improvement in predictive accuracy can be worth millions to companies that hire tens of thousands of people per year. These tools are especially attractive to retail and service companies because they have so many employees and such high turnover.

But many of the attributes that predict good or bad outcomes are not within our control. Some are things we were born with, at least in part, like IQ and personality or where and how we were raised. It’s possible for those attributes to prevent you from getting a job or from advancing in a company, put you at the front of the queue for layoffs, or shape a host of other outcomes.

What difference does that make, if those predictions are right?

First is the question of fairness. What if, for example, you didn’t get a job because you were raised by a single parent – a factor that has been shown to affect the likelihood that a person will steal?

Second is the effect on motivation. If I believe that promotions, layoffs and other decisions about my employment are heavily influenced by factors that I cannot control, such as personality or IQ, how does this affect my willingness to work hard?

Finally, predictions in the workplace are nowhere close to perfect. Many times they are only a bit more accurate than chance, and they explain only a fraction of the differences in people’s behavior.

Psychologists have long thought about the ethical and moral consequences of their tests. The new big data studies and the vendors selling them have not. It’s vital that we balance employers’ interest in making more effective workplace decisions with broader concerns about fairness and unintended consequences.

(Peter Cappelli is a professor of management at the Wharton School and the author, most recently, of “The India Way.”)