Asue Ighodalo leads Edo governorship race, poll shows

A recent poll of registered voters in Edo State conducted by EBDA indicates that Asue Ighodalo, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, is the frontrunner in the upcoming Edo State governorship election.

According to the poll, audited by BusinessDay, in which 1,179 registered voters resident in Edo state were surveyed, a commanding 68 percent of respondents would vote for Ighodalo if the election were held today. This puts him well ahead of his competitors, with All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate Monday Okpebholo securing 18 percent of the intending vote; and Labour Party’s Olumide Akpata garnering 14 percent.

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The poll, conducted on August 6th, 2024, sought to understand voter intentions by asking, “Who would you vote for in the Edo governorship election?”

The findings revealed that while a high percentage of voters (95.9 percent) have collected their permanent voter cards (PVCs), only 73.1 percent expressed willingness to vote. Those unwilling to vote cited factors such as transportation costs, insecurity, fear of security forces, and a perception that their vote would not count.

The data also highlighted a gender disparity among those likely to vote, with 68 percent of potential voters being male and 32 percent female, despite the INEC voter register showing an almost equal distribution between the sexes. Recently reported incidents of political violence, including the death of a police officer killed in a skirmish involving the APC governorship candidate Monday Okpebholo; and simmering tensions in the aftermath of the #EndBadGovernance protests are likely to result in increased voter apathy, with women appearing to be particularly affected by this.

Regarding the sensitive issue of zoning, 61.2 percent of respondents supported the idea of rotating power between different regions in Edo State. In contrast, 14.8 percent opposed the concept, with 24 percent choosing not to answer. Sharon Orisakwe, managing director of EBDA, observed that support for zoning, while still strong, has dropped by 16.8 percent from the 78 percent support for the idea respondents indicated when EBDA polled in January.

“Zoning remains a hot button issue ahead of the Edo governorship elections; and may in part explain why the first and second ranked candidates are from Edo Central, the region where supporters of zoning believe the next governor should come from.”

Orisakwe further stated that “Having analysed previous Election Day voter turnout numbers in Edo State, including the 24 percent voter turnout during the 2023 presidential election in Edo, we anticipate that Edo State will record high levels of voter apathy; and predict we will see only around 20 percent voter turnout.”

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When asked about the most critical issues for the next governor to address, respondents prioritised the increased cost of living (46 percent), road infrastructure (36 percent), and insecurity (18 percent). Notably, the poll also found that political party membership is low among respondents, with only 19.6 percent identifying as party members, while 68.7 percent claimed no affiliation. About 11.7 percent of respondents declined answering this question.

The poll employed proportionate, stratified random sampling, ensuring a representative sample drawn from the current INEC Voter Register. Conducted via randomised telephone interviews, the poll has a margin of error of 3 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent. Its reliability was confirmed through a test-retest process in five randomly selected local government areas, which yielded consistent results.

This poll offers critical insights into voter preferences and concerns, setting the stage for the Edo State governorship election. Although the PDP candidate currently enjoys a significant lead over his rivals, this poll is not predictive of actual Election Day voting behaviour, as sentiment and voter intent may yet swing in the days left ahead of the September 21 governorship elections.

_EBDA, one of Nigeria’s leading research and data analytics companies, previously conducted governorship polls for Edo and Ondo States in 2020; and more recently polled the 2023 Nigerian presidential elections.