Insurgency casts doubts over 2015 polls

With less t h a n s e v e n w e e k s t o t h e Presidential election slated for February 14, 2015, apprehension is growing over the possibility of a credible exercise in the insurgency ravaged states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe.

Analysts appear divided over what should be the way out and what step the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should take to check what could lead to “a constitutional logjam”.

Pre-empting the problems that may arise from not having election in the worst hit cities, communities, villages, and hamlets in the affected states, or in the event that the displaced persons from the areas were disenfranchised, the Senate recently directed its committee on INEC to liaise with the Commission to ensure that special polling units are established for the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), wherever they are found, to enable them perform their civic responsibility next year.

But pundits argue that there is no way every eligible person who has fled the troubled spots could be accommodated even with the provision of special polling units, especially when some of the affected people are now refugees in Cameroon, Chad and Niger Republic.

Festus Okoye, executive director, Human Rights Monitor (HRM), wonders how credible the general election would be.

“If election does not hold in North East, a president elected under such condition cannot claim to have a pan-Nigerian mandate. It is also clear that if Nigeria does not hold elections in the North-East, a president elected under such conditions cannot claim to have a pan-Nigerian mandate. So, it is clear that some senatorial districts, federal and state constituencies will not be represented at some tiers of government on account of insurgency,” he said.

Expressing similar Ali Mohammed Ndume, senator representing Borno South said the result of the election will be questionable if a large chunk of the country was disenfranchised.

“I want to know what will happen to the results if election does not take place in about five states seriously affected by the insurgency,” he said. According to Ndume, “there is only a provision [in the Constitution] which says if a country is at war, elections can be suspended but we are not talking about the whole country, it is Borno and some other states that have problems. And the fact remains that our right to vote cannot be taken away and it cannot be abrogated.”

But Alkali Jajere, a senator representing Yobe South Senatorial District on the platform of All Progressives Congress (APC), said that nothing would stop the elections holding in the troubled states. According to him, “no Jupiter on earth can stop elections from holding in Yobe State.”

A pundit, who spoke with BD SUNDAY on condition of anonymity, said it behooves on the INEC to carry all the politicians and political parties along and to assert itself on the right things to do without unnecessary politicization of the situation.

“I see a situation where some people may try to hide under the insurgency in parts of the North East to cause problem in the polity. I see a constitutional logjam, a situation where some people may use the situation as an alibi in the event their opponents are declared winners of some particular elections. So, to avoid this, INEC should convene a meeting of all the parties where it will seek their views on what should be done, but if they fail to agree on a position (as I believe some of them will neither be forth-coming with reasonable suggestions nor agree on workable methods, just to foment trouble, preferring to take advantage of whatever situation that may result from the election or no election in the areas), the Commission should take a stand and ensure it is binding on all the parties,” the pundit said.

A legal practitioner, who also asked not to be named, said he foresaw a situation where the party in control of the two states of the three under insurgency would leverage on the situation to contest whatever result that may be declared after the exercise in 2015.

“I think what should be the uppermost concern of the INEC is what happens after wasting all the resources and the exercise is annulled on the basis of the declared winner not getting up to the required number of votes and spread. I think, the APC which is in control of Borno and Yobe is taking special interest in what happens in those two states.

If for instance, President Jonathan is declared winner at the end of the day, even after the IDPs voted wherever they are, don’t you think
that the APC can turn around and said, No; that if those people voted in their states the party would have won. I see a tricky situation, and INEC must really be up to their game,” the legal practitioner said.

It would be recalled that the Federal Government is yet to renew the state of emergency in the three states after the third phase expired some weeks ago. The emergency rule, which has been partial from inception, became heavily politicized.

Recently, the nation’s service chiefs, after weighing the options, came up with a verdict that election may not hold in the three troubled states.

A former presidential aspirant from the North told BD SUNDAY that it is not about holding election in the three states or not, but about making the elections credible.

“What people should bother themselves about is the possibility of making the elections credible. The way things stand at the moment, even the capital cities of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe may not have elections held in them because people are afraid of such gatherings.

Again, where do you get the hands to carry out the exercise? People have not forgotten the experience of 2011 which has worsened by the activities of the Boko Haram. If INEC does not get it right, we might have a serious problem,” he said.