Nigeria climbs Africa’s solar ranks, now 5th largest installer

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, has emerged as the continent’s fifth-largest solar installer in 2024, with a total installed capacity of 73 megawatts (MW), according to a new industry report.

The Global Solar Council attributes this growth to the removal of petrol subsidies, which has spurred the adoption of solar in a country where residential and off-grid systems are traditionally dominant.

The federal government scrapped petrol subsidies in May 2023, leading to a surge in fuel prices and making solar a more attractive alternative for businesses and households.

“Despite Nigeria securing a spot among the top 10 solar PV installers with 73 MW of new capacity in 2024, this figure may be underestimated due to the significant share of non-utility solar installations, such as private and commercial rooftop systems, which are harder to track,” the report stated.

Despite Nigeria’s traditionally low utility-scale solar development, recent projects suggest a shift. The Kebbi state government has allotted 200 hectares of land to a private investor for a 5.6 GW solar power plant, while the Lafia and Gombe solar parks could add up to 600 MW by 2028. Mali, another growing player, could become a gigawatt (GW) market within the same period.

The rise in solar adoption mirrors trends in other African markets where power prices and electricity blackouts have encouraged residential and commercial installations.

“There is often a corresponding rise in residential PV installations as a solution to frequent electricity blackouts,” the report highlighted.

The report also notes that Nigeria’s recent electricity tariff hikes, aimed at reducing subsidies, have pushed more consumers toward solar, mirroring patterns in countries like South Africa and Mauritius.

Off-grid solar solutions, such as solar home systems, are also playing a growing role.

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According to the report, off-grid solar accounted for 55 percent of new electricity connections in sub-Saharan Africa between 2020 and 2022, with Nigeria leading the trend. Sales of off-grid solar systems in the country have been buoyed by rising fuel costs and initiatives such as the Nigeria Electrification Programme.

As of 2024, Nigeria’s cumulative installed solar capacity reached 385.7 MW. However, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates that Nigeria’s solar potential remains largely untapped, with the country capable of generating up to 210 GW if just 1 percent of its suitable land were used for solar projects.

“This growing adoption of solar energy is only at its burgeoning stage,” the report stated.

The commercial and industrial (C&I) solar segment is expanding rapidly, with projected installations expected to reach between 494 MW and 1,457 MW by 2025. The report predicts that under a medium-growth scenario, Nigeria could add over 550 MW of new solar capacity between 2025 and 2029.

However, utility-scale solar development in Nigeria remains constrained by weak grid infrastructure.

While the government’s Nigeria Green Vision (30:30:30) initiative targets 5 GW of solar by 2030 and 25 GW by 2050, progress has been slow.

Plans for 14 new solar farms across northern and central Nigeria, which were expected to generate about 20 percent of the country’s grid capacity, have faced setbacks due to the government’s reluctance to provide key guarantees to developers.

Nigeria’s regulatory framework has played a crucial role in driving solar growth, according to the report.

The National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP), enacted in 2015, set ambitious targets for renewable energy, aiming for solar to contribute 6 percent of electricity generation by 2030. The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has also updated its mini-grid regulations to accelerate electrification in rural and underserved areas.

The Renewable Energy Master Plan (REMP) outlines a target of 500 MW of solar PV by 2025, with renewable electricity expected to account for 23 percent of generation by 2025 and 36 percent by 2030.

Key incentives, including import duty exemptions, tax credits, and preferential loans for renewable energy, have further supported the sector’s growth.