Oil prices extend gains after OPEC+ talks called off

Oil prices are extending their gains in Tuesday’s early trading to reach levels not seen since 2018 after OPEC+ discussions were called off, heightening expectations that supplies will tighten further just as global fuel demand recovers from a COVID-19-induced slump. While the price surge is boon for Nigeria and other exporters hit by acute revenue shortage, the fear of a price war remains a worrying factor.

Brent crude climbed 18 cents or 0.2% to stand at $77.34 a barrel by 0542 GMT, after gaining 1.3% on Monday. An earlier session peak of $77.61 was its highest level since October 29, 2018.

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U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $76.57 a barrel, up $1.41 or 1.9% from Friday’s close. There were no settlements on Monday, a U.S. holiday to mark Independence Day.

It hit $76.77 a barrel earlier on Tuesday, just shy of an October 2018 peak of $76.90.

Ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, abandoned oil output talks and set no new date to resume them, after clashing last week when the United Arab Emirates rejected a proposed eight-month extension to output curbs.

Some OPEC+ sources said there would be no oil output increase in August, while others said a new meeting would take place in the coming days and they believed there will be a boost in August.

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“Behind the rally were the views that there will be no extra barrels from OPEC+ coming from next month and recovering fuel demand will cause a further tightness in the market,” said Tetsu Emori, CEO of Emori Fund Management Inc.

But he also added: “the market seems to believe in the OPEC+ framework and that there will be some sort of agreement by August to keep the system going.”

Iraqi Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar said on Monday that his country is committed to the current agreement with OPEC and its allies and does not want to see oil prices soaring above current levels to achieve stability.

He also said he hopes that in 10 days there could be a date for the next meeting.

“Investors are not keen to move in either direction from here due to uncertainty over actual actions by the OPEC+ members from next month,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at commodities broker Fujitomi Co.

OPEC+ agreed on record output cuts in 2020 to cope with a COVID 19-induced price crash.

The producers have been gradually easing the output restrictions, but a plan on Friday to lift output by about 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from August to December 2021 and to extend the pact on a series of gradual output shifts to the end of 2022 was blocked.

“The sticking point focuses on UAE production levels under more normal circumstances. This is an issue we would expect OPEC to resolve prior to the termination of the current agreement in April 2022,” Alan Gelder, vice president at Wood Mackenzie, said in a report.

“These discussions will, however, likely prove difficult and protracted.”

Crude oil buyers in Asia were awaiting Saudi Arabia’s official selling prices (OSPs) to assess the market’s direction after the unexpected cancellation of the OPEC+ meeting, three refining sources in Asia told Reuters on Tuesday.