Nigeria crude output hits 1.53mbpd, ends 10-month OPEC quota drought

Nigeria has exceeded its crude oil production quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the first time in 10 months, signalling a significant turnaround in the country’s efforts to revive output amid years of oil theft, pipeline vandalism and underinvestment.

Data from OPEC’s June 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report showed that Nigeria’s crude oil production, based on direct communication to the cartel, rose to 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2026, surpassing the country’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd by 30,000 barrels per day.

The latest production figure represents an increase from 1.489 million bpd in April and 1.383 million bpd in March, highlighting a steady recovery in output levels.

The achievement marks Nigeria’s first return above its OPEC production ceiling since July 2025, when the country reported crude production of 1.507 million bpd, ending a 10-month stretch during which output remained below the target.

The development is expected to boost confidence among investors and policymakers seeking to strengthen Nigeria’s oil sector, which remains the backbone of government revenues and foreign exchange earnings despite ongoing efforts to diversify the economy.

The increase in production comes at a critical time for Africa’s largest oil producer, as authorities intensify measures to curb crude theft and improve operational efficiency across key oil-producing regions.

Nigeria has spent much of the past four years struggling to meet its OPEC quota due to widespread crude oil theft, ageing infrastructure, operational disruptions and delayed investments in upstream assets.

The country’s inability to maximise production has cost it billions of dollars in lost export revenues and weakened its ability to benefit fully from favourable oil price cycles.

Industry analysts said the latest production rebound reflects improved security around major oil infrastructure, enhanced surveillance efforts and increased collaboration between government agencies, security operators and oil companies.

“Nigeria’s economic outlook has continued to improve, supported by stronger macroeconomic stability, robust oil production, recovering private consumption and firmer business activity,” OPEC stated.

OPEC’s secondary source data also pointed to stronger Nigerian production, placing output at 1.519 million bpd in May, slightly below the direct communication figure but still comfortably above the country’s quota.

The gap between the two reporting methodologies was marginal, suggesting broad agreement that Nigeria’s crude production has recovered to around 1.52 million barrels per day.

“Growth remains supported by structural reforms, infrastructure investment, improved trade conditions and stronger external buffers. Higher oil prices and increased domestic refining capacity are also providing support,” OPEC stated.

The recovery comes as OPEC’s overall crude production declined in May. According to the cartel, total OPEC output fell by 177,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 18.829 million bpd, making Nigeria one of the few member countries to record higher production during the period.

For the Nigerian government, the latest figures provide further evidence that ongoing reforms in the petroleum sector are beginning to yield results. Officials have repeatedly expressed confidence that the country can sustainably raise crude production above current levels as investments return and operational challenges ease.

The federal government has set ambitious production targets, with authorities seeking to raise crude output closer to 2 million barrels per day in the medium term while simultaneously increasing domestic refining capacity through facilities such as the Dangote Refinery and state-owned refineries undergoing rehabilitation.

Higher production is expected to strengthen government revenues, improve foreign exchange inflows and support broader economic growth at a time when the country continues to grapple with fiscal pressures and rising development needs.