BusinessDay

Nigeria, two others to account for 80% of African gas output until 2025

Nigeria, Algeria, and Egypt are on the course to account for about 80 percent of Africa’s natural gas production from 2022 to 2025, according to the latest African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) Q2 2022 Outlook.

It said, “Nigeria and Algeria are expected to contribute to over 65 percent of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Africa to international markets.

In addition, 50 percent of the 2022-2025 cumulative gas flows from the top 10 producers in Africa are expected to be exported as LNG to international exports.

According to the report, major exits from Russia can have a positive impact on the African projects operated by these European and American operators.

AEC said that Algeria and Egypt are expected to lead the 2022 natural gas production charts with output levels of over 86 billion cubic metres (Bcm) and about 75 Bcm respectively.

Also, Nigeria’s overall 2022 monetised natural gas production, excluding the volumes pumped to the Eleme Petrochemicals Company Limited (EPCL), is estimated at about 50 bcm.

The overall LNG exports from Africa during the year are estimated at about 52 Million tonnes per annum (tpa) with about 19 bcm coming from Nigeria and Algeria estimated to export 15.5 Million tpa of LNG.

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In addition, Nigeria is currently in the process of ramping up capacity at the Nigeria LNG project from 22 million to 30 million tpa through its Train 7 scheme and debottlenecking, and Eni is a stakeholder in many upstream fields that provide feed gas to the LNG plant as well as in the processing plant.

However, Nigeria leads the LNG producers over the years 2022 – 2025 with over 120 bcm from an overall output of 205 bcm being exported as LNG.

The report said, “Numerous African countries are well-positioned to help plug a looming gas supply void in Europe as governments and companies in the latter continent look to scale back their dependence on Russian supplies following the invasion of Ukraine.

“Africa is conservatively forecast to reach peak gas production at 470 billion cubic meters (Bcm) by the late 2030s, equivalent to about 75 percent of the expected amount of gas produced by Russia in 2022,” the report explained.

In addition, The 2022 natural gas output from Africa is expected to reach about 260 bcm, while the near-term forecast suggests dropping in output to about 240 Bcm by 2025, the trend is expected to reverse post-2025, with 2030 natural gas flows expected to reach over 335 Bcm.

The report said the overall LNG exports from Africa during the year are estimated at about 52 Million tpa with about 19 Bcm coming from Nigeria and Algeria is estimated to export 15.5 Million tpa of LNG.

In addition, pipeline exports from Africa to Europe are from Algeria and Libya, and LNG exports have predominantly been from Nigeria and Algeria, with smaller volumes from Egypt and Angola and a fraction from Equatorial Guinea.

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