Nigeria, Angola lead Africa's oil production in 2025 - Report

Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude producer, alongside Angola, is expected to drive the continent’s oil output to 3.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 as the region looks to improve production by over 500,000 bpd in the year.

The State of African Energy 2025 Outlook by the African Energy Chamber (AEC) found that West Africa will lead the continent’s targeted oil production growth from about 6.5 million bpd currently to almost 7 million bpd by the end 2025.

“West Africa continues to remain the major driver of oil supply, producing around 3.7 million bpd of oil currently. With sustained production from Angola and a recovery from Nigeria, the region could produce between 3.8 – 3.9 million bpd,” the Outlook stated.

Africa is estimated to contribute about 8 percent to the global oil supply (crude oil and condensates) in 2025 as both Global and African supply are expected to grow gradually this year.

“The gradual increase hinges majorly on the curtailment of pipeline vandalisms and oil thefts in Nigeria, and a more stable environment in Sudan which also affects South Sudan’s production,” the AEC said.

Nigeria’s improved record oil output after four years

Data gleaned revealed that Nigeria has crossed the 1.5 million bpd threshold in crude oil production, surpassing its December 2024 quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Nigeria’s output rose by 40,000 bpd to reach 1.51 million bpd, marking its highest production level in four years.

The country, which had faced challenges maintaining production, capping at 1.3 million bpd in 2023, closed the year with a significant improvement, exceeding OPEC’s quota.

Meanwhile, the largest crude producer on the continent is targeting 2.06 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025, which includes blended and unblended condensates.

Curbing theft and vandalism

The AEC’s Outlook is banking on Nigeria to curb the familiar foes of pipeline vandalism and oil thefts to meet set targets and drive the continent’s gradual growth.

In October 2024, when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited disclosed achieving 1.8 million bpd, it attributed the milestone to enhanced security measures aimed at reducing oil theft and curbing pipeline vandalism.

For context, oil theft costs Nigeria many millions of dollars yearly; $23 million was lost daily in 2022, and $1.43 billion was lost in March 2023 alone, according to Senate estimates. Operation Delta Safe aims to reduce the losses, with a production goal this year of 1.7 million barrels per day.

Crude Oil investment in Nigeria

Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo), a subsidiary of Shell Plc, has announced a $5 billion Final Investment Decision (FID) for the Bonga North deep-water project, located off Nigeria’s coast.

Bonga North will connect to the Shell-operated Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) facility, in which Shell holds a 55 percent operating interest.

The project entails drilling, completing, and commissioning 16 wells, comprising eight production wells and eight water injection wells. It also includes modifications to the existing Bonga Main FPSO and the installation of advanced subsea equipment linked to the facility.

As a key project for Nigeria, Bonga North aims to sustain oil and gas output at the Bonga facility. The field holds an estimated recoverable resource of over 300 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and is projected to achieve a peak production of 110,000 barrels of oil per day, with the first oil expected by the end of the decade.

Earlier, Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), on his X handle, stated that the hindrances to investments in the oil sector, which hitherto scared investors from putting their money in the industry, had been removed, making operations in the country’s oil sector seamless.

He stated, “We have also eliminated bureaucratic bottlenecks in licensing, facilitated capacity building for indigenous players, and introduced numerous reforms too extensive to list.

“Reflecting on this journey, it is evident we have made remarkable strides. From where we started to where we are now, the progress is undeniable. With these accomplishments, the future promises even greater growth and development for the benefit of Nigerians.”