How Trump’s first 100 days may reshape global energy markets

With Donald Trump set for a second term in the White House, his early policy moves are likely to have significant impacts on the global energy landscape.

Donald Trump won the US presidential election on November 6, 2024, securing the required 270 electoral college votes and surpassing that threshold to become the 47th president of the United States.

Trump has outlined three primary energy-related priorities: lifting restrictions on US oil and gas production, advocating for a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and backing Israeli efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Here’s a look at the possible global energy shifts under his leadership:

Boosting US oil and gas output

One of Trump’s main goals is to revitalise American oil and gas production by lifting federal restrictions.

This strategy, rooted in his Agenda47 plan, aims to make US energy among the cheapest in the world. Trump has vowed to “end Biden’s delays in federal drilling permits,” thereby ramping up production and potentially leading to lower energy prices globally as more US oil and gas enter the market.

The move could influence energy costs in Nigeria and other oil-producing nations, as increased US output might lead to a bearish trend in global oil prices.

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A push for Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Trump has signalled his intent to negotiate a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He plans to pressure both sides: offering Russia a settlement that could allow it to retain certain disputed territories while warning Ukraine that US support could wane without meaningful talks.

This approach might ease Europe’s energy woes, especially if sanctions are lifted and Russian energy flows to Europe are restored.

For Nigeria, a peace agreement could alter gas markets by reducing Europe’s dependency on alternative suppliers, affecting Nigerian exports and pricing in the global market.

Backing Israel against Iran’s nuclear program

In the Middle East, Trump is expected to greenlight Israeli action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, potentially realigning US relations with Arab states and curtailing Iran’s influence.

Trump has been vocal about the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which he believes could destabilize the region and strengthen China’s foothold there.

By backing Israeli initiatives, he aims to re-establish the US as a dominant power in Middle Eastern affairs, potentially renewing collaborations with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Saudi Arabia to maintain steady oil prices.

As Trump prepares for his first 100 days, his policies will likely bring swift changes to the global energy landscape, with possible ripple effects for Nigeria’s oil exports and overall economy.