Covenant University’s Centre for Economic Policy and Development Research (CEPDeR) has canvassed for realistic budget assumptions in Nigeria following the realisation that the 2019 national budget may miss its targets due to wrong assumptions the national document is anchored.
The observation was made at this year’s roundtable discussion on the sectoral impact of the proposed 2019 national budget, organised by the Covenant University’s CEPDeR. The key highlight of the panel discussion centred on the poor signals for businesses and investors and the development of the nation’s education sector.
Ayoloola Olukanni, an ambassador and director-general, Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), who was the keynote speaker, said the 2019 budget was founded on unrealistic assumptions of the macroeconomic environment in Nigeria for 2019.
He further warned on the rising debt profiles of the federal and state governments across the federation.
Discussing on the budget’s impact on business and investment, Frank Aigbogun, CEO/publisher of BusinessDay, said the budget failed to provide signals for business owners and investors, saying, “What investors want to see in the budget is the government’s expectation for the productive sectors in the economy, and also the provisions to be made for these sectors.
“There is nothing in the 2019 budget that offers or inspires hope for investors.”
According to Aigbogun, a key driver of the economy is the exchange rate, which is influenced by oil prices. Nigeria’s budget benchmark for oil is at $60 per barrel for 2019 in comparison with $55 per barrel forecast by international institutions.
“We are at a very tight position as any little change is a challenge that can spiral throughout the whole spectrum of the economy,” he said.
Francis Iyoha, a professor of accounting, while discussing the impact on education, noted that out of the N620 billion budgeted for education, about N572 billion was expected to fund personnel expenses and overhead costs, leaving just a mere N48 billion to drive the development of entire Nigeria’s education sector.
“The budget is neither adequate nor is the distribution of the allocations optimal to develop the educational sector,” Iyoha said, indicating that from 1995 to 1999, allocation to education averaged around 13 percent, however since then, provisions to education had averaged about 8 percent or less.
“There is no economy that can rise beyond the quality of its education,” he explained.
Isaiah Olurinola, a professor of economics, while speaking on the implication for employment, noted that unemployment and underemployment had risen to about 43.3 percent in Nigeria, and “there is nothing in the current budget that directly seeks to address the issue.”
He further said it had become imperative for the educational system in Nigeria to drive entrepreneurial development among students at all levels.
On her part, Yemi Lawal, founder of Xeed Business Consulting, addressed issues relating to agriculture, and noted that despite the increasing call for agricultural investment, the provision to the agricultural sector in the 2019 budget at N138 billion was less than the budget allocation for 2018.
Lawal stressed that for improvement to be made in the sector, there was the need for proper infrastructural development.
Evans Osabuohien, chair of CEPDeR, asserted that CEPDeR was positioned to provide innovative solutions to national challenges as well as drive evidence-based policy making in Nigeria.
Furthermore, Philip Alege, dean, College of Business and Social Sciences, said the University was ready to provide disruptive solutions to aid policymaking in Nigeria.
