Will we ever break free from economic delusions?

Economic forecasts often offer a tantalising glimpse into a nation’s potential, yet they risk becoming hollow promises if not underpinned by substantive reforms. Goldman Sachs’ recent projection that Nigeria could become the world’s fifth-largest economy by 2075, overtaking the likes of Germany and the United Kingdom, is an alluring prospect. But does this bold forecast stand up to scrutiny, or is it merely another exercise in misplaced optimism?

“The reality is stark: the country faces the world’s highest number of out-of-school children, and tertiary education struggles with inadequate funding and outdated curricula.”

Nigeria’s projected ascent rests on three pillars: a youthful population, vast natural resources, and a burgeoning digital economy. Yet, for a nation grappling with chronic misgovernance, economic inefficiencies, and structural fragilities, such projections risk becoming a mirage rather than an inevitability. The real challenge lies not in the ambition but in the execution—can Nigeria address its deep-seated dysfunctions and chart a course toward sustainable economic transformation?

Nigeria’s population, set to surpass 400 million by 2050, is often framed as an economic advantage. In theory, a vast, young workforce should drive growth. In practice, without significant investment in education, healthcare, and vocational training, this demographic dividend may morph into a demographic disaster. The reality is stark: the country faces the world’s highest number of out-of-school children, and tertiary education struggles with inadequate funding and outdated curricula. A growing population without commensurate human capital development is not a strength—it is a ticking time bomb.

Agriculture remains Nigeria’s largest employer, yet the sector is woefully underdeveloped. With 84 million hectares of arable land, less than half is efficiently utilised due to poor infrastructure, low mechanisation, and an inconsistent policy framework. Food insecurity persists, and Nigeria remains a net importer of staples despite its capacity for self-sufficiency. Without structural reforms—land tenure security, mechanisation incentives, and supply chain efficiencies—the sector will remain shackled by inefficiency and lost potential.

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Nigeria’s energy wealth is indisputable. With proven reserves of 37 billion barrels of crude oil and 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, the country should be an energy powerhouse. Instead, its refining capacity remains dismal, and electricity shortages persist, crippling industrial productivity. The removal of fuel subsidies, while necessary, has not been matched with measures to stabilise the energy market or expand infrastructure. The pathway to industrialisation requires more than resource abundance—it demands governance that prioritises efficiency, investment, and long-term strategy over political expediency.

Nigeria’s fintech and startup ecosystem is among Africa’s most vibrant, attracting over $1.2 billion in venture capital in 2022. However, growth is stifled by inconsistent regulations, limited broadband penetration, and bureaucratic red tape. The government’s frequent regulatory clampdowns on tech firms underscore a fundamental disconnect between policymakers and economic enablers. If Nigeria is to leverage the Fourth Industrial Revolution, it must create an enabling environment that fosters innovation rather than constraining it.

Despite its apparent strengths, Nigeria is plagued by chronic dysfunctions that jeopardise its economic path. Governance and corruption remain persistent challenges, with the country ranking 150 out of 180 in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. Without serious anti-corruption measures and institutional strengthening, economic progress will remain elusive. Infrastructure deficiencies further constrain growth, as Nigeria requires an estimated $100 billion annually to bridge the gap, yet current investment levels fall drastically short.

Without modernised transport, energy, and digital networks, the country’s economic ambitions will remain aspirational. Additionally, overdependence on crude oil, which accounts for 90 percent of export earnings, exposes Nigeria to global price fluctuations and economic instability. A genuine push towards industrialisation and service-sector expansion is critical for long-term resilience. Compounding these structural issues is the worsening security and investment climate, with widespread terrorism, banditry, and instability costing Nigeria up to 2 percent of its GDP annually, according to the World Bank.

A stable business environment, underpinned by strong governance and security reforms, is paramount to attracting sustained investment and unlocking Nigeria’s full economic potential.

Projections are not self-fulfilling prophecies. Nigeria’s potential is vast, but its challenges are formidable. Economic transformation will require bold leadership, sound policymaking, and a commitment to structural reform. Governance must shift from short-term political gains to long-term strategic planning.

Without urgent action, Nigeria risks squandering yet another opportunity to realise its potential. The promise of 2075 should not be an excuse for complacency today. The clock is ticking, and history will not look kindly upon another wasted opportunity.