Why Nigeria’s economy slows down in Q1 every year

Each year, Nigeria’s economy experiences a slowdown as it transitions from the final quarter to the first. This trend has been consistent for over a decade, with economic growth in the first quarter (Q1) often lagging behind the performance of the fourth quarter (Q4).

For example, the economy grew by 3.46 percent in Q4 2023 but slowed to 2.98 percent in Q1 2024. This recurring pattern raises important questions about the structure and resilience of Nigeria’s economy.

“While seasonality affects many economies, its impact is more pronounced in Nigeria because, despite diversification efforts, the benefits have not been fully realised.”

The primary explanation lies in the seasonal nature of Nigeria’s economic activities. The last quarter of the year is typically a period of heightened economic activity. The holiday season, marked by Christmas and New Year celebrations, drives consumer spending as people buy gifts, travel, and celebrate. This increased demand boosts businesses across various sectors.

Agriculture, a significant contributor to the economy, also plays a key role. The peak harvest season occurs during Q4, leading to increased output and income for millions of Nigerians.

Government spending further amplifies this year-end economic surge. Ministries and agencies often rush to spend their budgets before the fiscal year ends, channelling funds into projects like infrastructure and public services.

However, this rush to spend can come at a cost. The World Bank notes that such hurried expenditures often reduce the effectiveness of public investments. Similarly, the Nigerian Institute for Social and Economic Research (NISER) points out that spending inefficiencies are a recurring problem.

For example, in 2023, the budget missed revenue and spending targets by 21.7 percent and 48.8 percent, respectively. These imbalances make it difficult for Nigeria’s economy to sustain momentum into the new year.

As the calendar turns to Q1, the vibrancy of the previous quarter fades. Holiday spending comes to a halt, agricultural activities slow as farmers prepare for the planting season, and government agencies shift their focus to planning new budgets instead of implementing projects.

This combination leads to a quieter economic landscape, making the economy heavily reliant on seasonal factors.

Read also: Why Nigeria’s Q1 GDP growth lags behind Q4: A decade-long trend

While seasonality affects many economies, its impact is more pronounced in Nigeria because, despite diversification efforts, the benefits have not been fully realized. The economy remains heavily influenced by key sectors like oil, agriculture, and consumer spending, leaving it vulnerable to inefficiencies and external shocks, such as global oil price fluctuations or disruptions in agriculture.

Addressing these seasonal patterns requires significant reforms. Diversifying the economy remains crucial. Although the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that over 90 percent of GDP comes from the non-oil sector—thanks to contributions from manufacturing, technology, and services—seasonal issues persist, hinting at deeper structural problems.

Investing in agricultural infrastructure, such as storage facilities and irrigation systems, could allow farmers to maintain productivity beyond the harvest season. Additionally, spreading government spending more evenly throughout the year could help stabilise economic performance.

The persistent Q1 slowdown is not necessarily a crisis, but it does highlight the need for long-term structural adjustments. As NISER warns, “the failure to diversify economic drivers and efficiently allocate resources is costing the economy valuable growth opportunities.” The World Bank similarly calls for fiscal reforms and policies that promote sustainable development.

Seasonal economic fluctuations reveal deeper vulnerabilities but also highlight Nigeria’s potential. With the right policies, the country can build a more stable and resilient economy that benefits businesses, workers, and households year-round. This requires a multifaceted approach.

Diversifying the economy, reducing reliance on oil and agriculture as the primary drivers of growth, is crucial. Investing in sectors such as manufacturing, technology, and renewable energy can create more stable and sustainable economic growth.

Investing in critical infrastructure such as roads, railways, and power generation will enhance connectivity, facilitate trade, and attract investment across sectors.

Expanding access to credit and financial services for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will enable them to grow and create jobs, contributing to more consistent economic activity throughout the year.

Investing in education and skills development will equip the workforce with the skills needed for a modern economy, increasing productivity and competitiveness.

Improving governance, reducing corruption, and ensuring the rule of law are essential for creating a stable and predictable business environment that attracts investment and fosters sustainable growth.

As Q1 2025 approaches, the challenge remains: will the cycle repeat, or will Nigeria take bold steps to address these recurring issues?

The answer lies in implementing reforms that go beyond seasonal fixes and build an economy that works for all Nigerians throughout the year. This requires strong political will, effective policy implementation, and a commitment to long-term sustainable development. The future of the Nigerian economy depends on it.