The cost of reform: Is Tinubu’s economic experiment a disaster?

As Nigerians grapple with surging petrol prices, now having risen by over 440 percent in Lagos and a staggering 600 percent in the North-East since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (PBAT) took office, the nation stands at a critical juncture. The removal of fuel subsidies, once championed as a step toward fiscal reform, has instead thrown the country into economic turmoil. The fallout is manifesting in rising inflation, declining purchasing power, and growing unrest, particularly in sectors already strained by years of stagnation.

“Has poor management made matters worse, or is the cost of correction too great?”

In less than 18 months, the Tinubu administration’s attempts at reshaping Nigeria’s economic policies have backfired for the average citizen, leaving many questioning whether the President’s actions will lead to long-term growth or further hardship. Has poor management made matters worse, or is the cost of correction too great?

Nigeria’s decades-long reliance on oil as its economic backbone has always been a double-edged sword. Since the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) assumed its monopolistic control over the sector in 1977, successive governments have failed to diversify the economy or address systemic inefficiencies within the industry. For years, the NNPC has been plagued by allegations of corruption, poor oversight, and mismanagement, leading to significant revenue losses and underinvestment in vital infrastructure.

The Tinubu administration’s move to scrap fuel subsidies was supposed to create fiscal space by reducing government spending on artificially low fuel prices. However, the expected relief in public finances has not materialised for everyday Nigerians, who are left facing skyrocketing prices at the pump. The policy, while economically sound in theory, has been poorly executed, without a robust safety net or alternative measures to cushion the impact on those most vulnerable to price shocks.

One glaring issue with the removal of subsidies has been the absence of a phased or strategic approach. Without proper sequencing or public engagement, the abrupt removal has caused widespread economic distress. Inflation is now forecast to rise even further, with food and transport costs expected to drive millions deeper into poverty. According to Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, inflation was already running at 24 percent before the most recent petrol hikes. The added pressure of increased fuel prices will only accelerate the cost-of-living crisis, making daily survival an insurmountable challenge for many households.

Critics, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, have lambasted the Tinubu administration’s approach, describing it as haphazard and lacking in transparency. Abubakar’s assertion that the country is now in economic freefall due to Tinubu’s policies highlights the administration’s failure to consider the broader socio-economic consequences of its reforms.

Read  also: Tinubu’s shock therapy: Economic reforms or economic suicide?

The government’s recent push toward Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as a potential solution to ease Nigeria’s dependence on petrol is, on the surface, a logical step. Nigeria has abundant natural gas reserves, and CNG offers a cleaner and more cost-effective fuel alternative. In theory, this could alleviate some of the pressure on the national economy and provide a hedge against fluctuating global oil prices.

However, the rapid adoption of CNG is fraught with challenges. For one, the infrastructure to support a large-scale transition to CNG is woefully underdeveloped. Retrofitting vehicles and building refuelling stations across the country would require significant investment, which the government has yet to outline in detail. Additionally, public awareness remains low, and without incentives or subsidies, the majority of Nigerians will struggle to make the switch.

To steer Nigeria away from further economic decline, the government must acknowledge the structural issues at play. First and foremost, the NNPC’s monopolistic hold over the oil sector needs to be addressed. A transparent, accountable approach to managing oil revenues—whether through decentralisation, privatisation, or the introduction of competitive bidding for oil blocks—would reduce the inefficiencies that have plagued the corporation for decades.

Furthermore, Nigeria’s economic salvation lies not just in energy reform but in diversification. The agricultural sector, once the bedrock of the economy, has been neglected for far too long. Investment in technology, infrastructure, and value-added manufacturing could not only reduce unemployment but also lessen the country’s dependency on volatile oil revenues.

Finally, the Tinubu administration needs to ensure that its economic reforms are coupled with strong social safety nets. The most vulnerable segments of society cannot be left to bear the brunt of these drastic changes. Policies such as conditional cash transfers, subsidised healthcare, and targeted food programs must be implemented swiftly if the government is to maintain public support and stave off further unrest.

At a time when Nigeria’s economic future hangs in the balance, decisive leadership is more critical than ever. Tinubu’s presidency was meant to mark a new era of reform and growth, but so far, the promises have rung hollow. The government must recalibrate its approach, placing transparency, consultation, and accountability at the forefront of its decision-making. Anything less would be a disservice to the millions of Nigerians who entrusted this administration with their future.

The road ahead is not an easy one. But if the Tinubu administration is willing to listen, learn, and adapt, there is still hope for a Nigeria that can thrive beyond its oil dependence. If not, the current economic crisis may only be the beginning of a much deeper descent into instability.