Nigeria’s data deficit: A major hurdle for effective social safety nets

Nigeria, a country abundant in resources yet mired in widespread poverty, has a history of ambitious economic reforms that too often fail to deliver on their promises. From the Structural Adjustment Programme in the 1980s to the more recent Renewed Hope Agenda, successive administrations have sought to transform the economy. Yet, millions of Nigerians remain trapped in hardship, with the gap between policy intent and real-world outcomes growing ever more pronounced.

At the heart of this failure lies a critical, yet frequently overlooked, issue: Nigeria’s glaring deficit in reliable data to inform effective policymaking. This shortfall has profound implications, particularly for the country’s social safety nets, which have proven largely ineffectual in cushioning the most vulnerable against economic shocks.

A stark reminder of this disconnect between policy and reality is the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) revelation that over 133 million Nigerians—more than 63 percent of the population—are classified as multidimensionally poor. Basic needs such as food, healthcare, and education remain inaccessible to millions. Yet, social investment programmes like the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP) remain woefully underfunded and inefficient, reaching only a fraction of those they are designed to serve.

Q: “Yet, millions of Nigerians remain trapped in hardship, with the gap between policy intent and real-world outcomes growing ever more pronounced.”

In 2022, the Nigerian government allocated a mere ₦500 billion (approximately $1.2 billion) to social programmes—just 0.27 percent of GDP. With a population exceeding 200 million, this level of funding is grossly inadequate. Moreover, much of it is lost to inefficiency and corruption. A World Bank report indicates that only 2.5 million Nigerians benefitted from the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme—representing a paltry 1.25 percent of the population. This stark misalignment between policy ambitions and their practical impact underscores the urgent need for reliable, comprehensive data to guide social investment decisions.

The consequences of this data deficit are perhaps most vividly illustrated in the aftermath of the fuel subsidy removal under the Renewed Hope Agenda. While the government’s aim to redirect subsidy savings to more productive areas was theoretically sound, the absence of accurate data on household energy consumption rendered compensatory measures largely ineffective. Low-income Nigerians faced soaring fuel prices and inflation without adequate support, deepening their economic hardship and eroding trust in the government’s ability to manage such transitions.

Further complicating the situation, recent reforms—such as the unification of the naira’s exchange rate—though intended to attract foreign investment, have contributed to the highest inflation rate in 28 years, particularly impacting food prices. For millions of Nigerians living on less than $2 a day, the rising costs of essential goods have compounded their already precarious existence.

To address these systemic issues, Nigeria must transition towards data-driven policymaking. The government needs to prioritise investments in robust data collection, especially in underserved rural areas. Comprehensive data on income, consumption patterns, and demographics would enable more targeted and effective social interventions. Had such data informed the 2023 fuel subsidy removal, measures like energy vouchers for low-income households could have been implemented, providing much-needed relief for those hardest hit by the reforms.

Examples from other emerging markets provide valuable lessons. Brazil’s Bolsa Família programme, initiated in 2003, successfully lifted approximately 26 million people out of poverty by using reliable household data to target financial support effectively. Similarly, India’s Aadhaar system, a biometric identification programme, has streamlined welfare distribution for over 1.3 billion people, reducing fraud and ensuring that resources reach those who need them most. Both examples highlight the transformative potential of data in shaping effective social programmes and fostering inclusive growth.

At this critical juncture, Nigeria’s policymakers must recognise that data is not merely a technical tool—it is the lifeblood of effective governance. Without reliable data, even the best-intentioned reforms risk failing to make a meaningful difference in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.

The challenges facing Nigeria are immense, but they are not insurmountable. By investing in data infrastructure and aligning policy more closely with reality, the government can begin to bridge the gap between rhetoric and results. The stakes are high: millions of Nigerians remain without the social safety nets they so desperately need. It is imperative that this cycle of poverty and policy failure be broken—before the country’s most vulnerable are left behind once again.