Can a revolution rescue Nigeria from its rulers?

The story of Nigeria is one of contradictions—rich in potential, but crippled by its own rulers. Once hailed as the giant of Africa, Nigeria now stumbles under the weight of weak governance, unchecked corruption, and a complacent political elite that has mastered the art of running the country into the ground while feigning concern. The Africa Gap, as recently dissected by The Economist, paints a damning picture of the continent’s economic stagnation. But nowhere is this reality more pronounced than in Nigeria, where economic opportunity is squandered at the altar of political expediency.

Africa’s economic struggles are often discussed in sweeping generalisations, but Nigeria’s case is particularly egregious. At independence in 1960, Nigeria had a per capita GDP comparable to Malaysia and South Korea. Today, those countries have soared to high-income status while Nigeria remains stuck in an economic quagmire, oscillating between grandiose development plans and catastrophic policy failures. Tinubu’s economic reforms, hailed as bold and transformative, have so far delivered only hardship, worsening inflation, and further impoverishing millions.

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The reality is stark: rather than narrowing the economic divide with the rest of the world, Nigeria is falling further behind. The yawning chasm between its immense natural wealth and the wretched standard of living of its people is a direct consequence of governance failure. Political leaders recycle the same empty promises of economic revitalization while indulging in grotesque levels of self-enrichment. Nigeria remains an oil-dependent economy in an era when smarter nations have diversified and built resilient industries. But why innovate when the status quo benefits those in power?

For decades, Nigeria’s ruling class has turned governance into a zero-sum game, where those in power extract as much as possible before passing the baton to another set of plunderers. The old guard of politicians, many of whom were active players in the military juntas of the past, continue to manipulate the system, ensuring that real economic reforms remain impossible. Policies are draughts, not for the benefit of Nigerians, but for the political and business elite who have mastered the dark arts of patronage and rent-seeking.

“The old guard of politicians, many of whom were active players in the military juntas of the past, continue to manipulate the system, ensuring that real economic reforms remain impossible.”

Look no further than Nigeria’s handling of its foreign exchange and debt crises. In a nation blessed with vast human capital, the naira is in a freefall, foreign reserves are being drained at alarming rates, and foreign investors continue to flee. Rather than address the structural issues, such as over-reliance on imports, the absence of a functioning industrial policy, and an investment-hostile environment, the government’s response has been reactionary at best, disastrous at worst.

Nigeria’s leadership, like much of Africa’s, operates in a state of blissful detachment from reality. They preach economic resilience while jetting off to foreign capitals in private planes for medical treatments that their own decrepit hospitals cannot provide. They speak of job creation while their policies strangle small businesses and push more youth into the informal economy. They tout foreign investment while failing to provide the infrastructure and security necessary for any serious investor to take them seriously.

Perhaps the greatest indictment of Nigeria’s ruling class is its sheer lack of urgency. Nigeria’s population is exploding, with projections that it will surpass 400 million by 2050. Yet, there is no coherent strategy for job creation, industrialisation, or human capital development. The result? A swelling youth population that sees migration, not economic participation, as the only viable path to prosperity. A nation that cannot provide opportunities for its young people is a nation sitting on a ticking time bomb.

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Nigeria has all the ingredients for success, yet it continually fails to rise. The excuse that ‘Africa is different’ or ‘Nigeria is uniquely complex’ no longer holds water. Other nations with similar historical trajectories have pulled themselves out of economic malaise: why should Nigeria be the exception?

For Nigeria to escape the Africa Gap, it needs more than just economic reforms; it requires a political revolution, one that dislodges the entrenched elite and demands accountability at every level. This means a fundamental restructuring of how power is distributed, how resources are managed, and how leaders are held accountable for their failures. The time for empty promises and surface-level reforms is over.

Nigerians must ask themselves: How long will we allow our dreams to be deferred? How many more generations must suffer under the weight of poor governance before we say enough is enough? The battle to close the Africa Gap is not one that will be won through rhetoric; it requires a new consciousness, a demand for excellence, and a willingness to disrupt the status quo.

The choice is clear: continue the cycle of decline or take radical steps to reclaim Nigeria’s future. One thing is certain: history will not be kind to those who had the power to act but chose to look the other way.