A dangerous prelude to 2026 and 2027 elections

The escalating crisis over local government administration in Osun State is not merely a regional dispute—it is a harbinger of the political machinations set to define the 2026 and 2027 elections. With lives lost and violence intensifying, democracy in Osun is being tested in its most fragile form. This is not about governance; it is a calculated struggle for political dominance, with ordinary citizens caught in the crossfire.

At the heart of this turmoil is former governor and current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola, who stands accused of leveraging his federal position to destabilise the state. The recent Appeal Court ruling on the sacked local government chairmen has provided him with an opportunity to exert influence, allegedly using federal backing to challenge Governor Ademola Adeleke’s authority. The goal appears twofold: to discredit Adeleke’s leadership and create conditions that justify federal intervention, potentially leading to a state of emergency.

Read also: Crises in Osun council secretariats amid reinstatement of APC chairmen

This strategy is rooted in the APC’s struggle to regain political relevance in Osun. Having suffered significant electoral losses in 2022 and 2023, including a decisive rejection of its candidates at both state and national levels, the party is now resorting to extra-legal manoeuvres to reclaim lost ground. Unable to command genuine popular support, it appears to be testing the limits of federal influence to override democratic processes.

However, the Appeal Court’s ruling does not provide legal backing for such moves. The court did not reinstate the sacked chairmen and councillors, nor did it halt the upcoming local government elections scheduled for February 2025. Instead, it dismissed the PDP’s case as speculative but did not overturn the Federal High Court’s previous ruling that nullified the APC’s controversial 2022 local government elections. Thus, any claim of reinstatement is legally unfounded and rests solely on political brinkmanship.

Governor Adeleke has argued that reinstating the sacked officials poses a significant security risk—a stance that appears justified in light of the recent violence, including reports of multiple fatalities. The attempts by APC operatives to forcibly occupy local government secretariats demonstrate a reckless disregard for due process and underscore the high stakes involved in this battle for control.

“Governor Adeleke has argued that reinstating the sacked officials poses a significant security risk—a stance that appears justified in light of the recent violence, including reports of multiple fatalities.”

More concerning is the overt call for a state of emergency by the APC’s National Secretary, Dr Ajibola Basiru. In a televised statement, he urged the federal government to intervene, citing violence allegedly perpetrated by PDP supporters. Such rhetoric is not just alarmist—it is an attempt to create a pretext for federal overreach. The APC knows that a free and fair election in 2026 would likely result in another loss; thus, it appears intent on engineering a crisis to alter the electoral landscape in its favour.

The implications of this crisis extend beyond Osun. If democracy is subverted here, it sets a dangerous precedent for other states, particularly as the 2027 presidential election approaches. President Bola Tinubu, already facing internal dissent within his party, must dissuade his allies from exacerbating tensions in the Southwest. Oyetola’s actions may not only backfire locally but could also contribute to broader instability that weakens Tinubu’s political standing.

Osun’s citizens must not be reduced to collateral damage in this political chess game. Governance should be anchored in service, not personal ambition. The APC’s leadership must reassess its approach and prioritise democratic stability over short-term gains. As for Oyetola, he must recognise that a political legacy built on coercion and unrest is ultimately unsustainable.

Read also: Osun PDP alleges IGP involvement in plot against Governor Adeleke

Nigeria’s democracy stands at a critical juncture. Will the nation’s political landscape be shaped by the machinations of power brokers and the self-serving agendas of political opportunists, or will the foundational principles of the rule of law ultimately triumph?

The unfolding events in Osun State will serve as a crucial litmus test, offering a clear indication of the path Nigeria chooses to take. The integrity of the electoral process, the impartiality of institutions, and the commitment of political actors to democratic norms are all under scrutiny.

The nation, indeed, is watching closely, holding its breath to see whether the outcome reflects the genuine will of the people or succumbs to the forces that threaten to undermine the democratic process. The implications extend far beyond Osun’s borders, as this election’s outcome will undoubtedly influence future elections and shape the trajectory of Nigerian democracy for years to come.

A commitment to fairness and transparency is paramount if Nigeria hopes to solidify its democratic gains and inspire confidence in its system of governance. The choices made now will determine whether Nigeria continues its journey toward a stronger, more just democracy or risks backsliding into a less certain future.