May 29, 2021, marked six (6) unbroken years of the reign of Muhammadu Buhari, a retired major general as President and Commander-in-Chief of the Nigerian Armed forces. Despite being in power for more than half a decade, the security situation in the country remained volatile making nonsense of his campaign promise in the run up to the 2015 general election. Its multiplier effect on the economy, food security and poverty is visible.
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Indeed, the 2015 election was won, partly, on a promise by Buhari that he would end the Boko Haram insurgency in the country and guarantee security across the country. But the surge in terrorism in every part of the country is evidence that Buhari has failed to keep one of his major campaign promises.
Prior to the elections in 2015, he said “ I will bring permanent peace and solution to the insurgency issues in the North-East; the Niger Delta; and other conflict prone states and areas such as Plateau, Benue, Bauchi, Borno, Abia, Taraba, Yobe and Kaduna in order to engender national unity and social harmony”.
Soon after his inauguration, Buhari charged the military chiefs to end Boko Haram within 3 months.
Riding the crest of ‘change’ and ‘next level’ mantras into his first and second administrations, 6 years down the line, nothing has changed. In 2018 the military suffered its highest fatalities against terrorist groups.
Despite government claims to the contrary, insecurity across the country is spreading. The narrative that Boko Haram insurgents in the North East have been ‘technically defeated’ sounds more of a propaganda as fatalities continue to be recorded from attacks. In addition, other bandits continue to cause mayhem through countless kidnappings and massacres in several parts of the country. For instance, the conflict between herdsmen and farmers has resulted in the loss of thousands of lives and deepened ethnic tensions in the North Central region of Nigeria.
An independent researcher, Dr Jose Luis Bazan, reported that an estimated 2,539 persons were killed from 654 attacks between 2017 and 2020. In 2019, Nigeria was ranked 3rd below Afghanistan and Iraq out of 138 countries in the Global Terrorism Index and the 14th most fragile in the world and the 9th in Africa, according to the Fragile States Index. Not surprisingly, same year, the country was also ranked 148th out of 163 countries in the Global Peace Index, far below former war-ravaged countries like Sierra Leone (52), Liberia (59) and Rwanda (79).
Attacks and reprisal attacks have continued in states like Kaduna with accusations of ethnic cleansing and mismanagement of religious and cultural diversity. Part of the reason for the spread of insecurity is that government has allowed these groups to operate with impunity. The catalogue of security failures shows the extent to which the Buhari government has failed to address the country’s security challenges. Under his watch our school system has become unsafe for learning and future of school children threatened with several students being kidnapped almost on a daily basis.
Towards the end of 2018, Boko Haram seemed emboldened with several attacks on communities and military bases. Over 600 soldiers were lost in onslaughts. It also overran the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) base in Baga, Borno state. The numbers and intensity of attacks show that the battle against the group and other criminal elements is far from over.
Apart from the unrest in the Northern region of the country, agitation for secession in the South-East region has also been rife. Violent protests resulting in fierce crackdown by the military and police have added to the security challenges faced by the country.
Groups such as Movement for the Actualisation of Sovereign State of Biafra and Indigenous People of Biafra have led several protests which have threatened the peace and security of the south east region. But the ability of the groups to stage large protests and the threat to disrupt the 2023 elections is already causing further anxiety across the country. The government has also not been able to find a permanent solution to the unrest in the Niger Delta.
Regrettably, the heightening insecurity continues to impact negatively on the business environment, business enterprises and inflows. For instance, rising food prices can be linked clearly to the inaccessibility of farmers to their farmlands taken over by criminal herdsmen and rampaging bandits. One of the biggest fish markets in West Africa, located in Baga near the Lake Chad basin in North East Nigeria, has long been abandoned due to the ongoing Boko Haram insurgency. These staggering statistics clearly have a verifiable impact on the direction of investment decisions whether by foreign or local investors. And the earlier these issues are checked, the better for Nigeria.
Buhari has now spent six years in office as president, but his promises to secure Nigeria have so far failed to materialise.
