• Thursday, March 28, 2024
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Firms expect naira to appreciate by 55.7 index points next 12 months

Naira falls to N450 against dollar on black market

Nigerian firms surveyed by the statistics department of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) expect naira to appreciate by 55.7 index points in the next 12 months.

The March 2019 Business Expectations Survey (BES), was carried out by the CBN during the period of March 11-15, 2019 with a sample size of 1050 businesses nationwide. A response rate of 96.2 per cent was achieved, and the sample covered the services, industrial, wholesale/retail trade, and construction sectors.

The respondent firms were made up of small, medium and large corporations covering both import- and export-oriented businesses.

The respondent firms expect the naira to appreciate in the current, and next month as their confidence indices stood at 33.1, and 44.9 index points, respectively.

Respondent firms expect borrowing rates to rise in current month by 15.5 confidence index points, next month by 0.4 points and the next twelve months by 1.8 point.

On inflation, respondents’ average expected inflation rate in the next six months and twelve months stood at 11.2 and 11.1 percent, respectively.

The firms response on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), show that they were optimistic of better economic conditions as their expectations on the growth of the economy rose steadily in the short run with an index of 37.7 points for the current month, 52.5 points for the next six months and 64.5 points for the next twelve months.

The respondent expressed optimism on the overall confidence index (CI) on the macro economy by 28.2 index points in the month of March 2019 compared 22.1 points in February.

According to the report, the businesses outlook for April 2019 showed greater confidence on the macro economy with 64.8 index points.

The optimism on the macro economy in the current month was driven by the opinion of respondents from services by 16.8 points, industrial 8.6 points, wholesale/retail trade 2.3 points and construction sectors 0.5 points. Whereas the major drivers of the optimism for next month were services 37.0 points, industrial 19.4 points, wholesale/retail trade 6.2 points and construction sectors 2.2 points.

The positive outlook by type of business in March 2019 were driven by businesses that are neither import- nor export-oriented by 20.3 points, both import- and export-oriented 4.1 points, import-oriented 3.5 points, and those that are export-related 0.2 points.