Since the emergence of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Nigeria in late February 2020, the virus has spread to all but one state—Cross River, according to the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC).
As at June 8, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja) has accumulated to 12,512 cases; with 8,199 ‘Active Cases’; 3,959 ‘Discharged Cases’ and sadly, 354 persons have died of the coronavirus disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
This also means that 65.53 per cent of the coronavirus infected persons in Nigeria are still sick; 31.64 per cent have recovered and 2.83 per cent of the infected persons in the country have died of the virus as at the reference date above.
It is therefore worrisome to see that the government of Nigeria is now a copycat of other European countries, especially that the lockdown of Ogun State, Lagos State and the national capital city, Abuja which adversely affected the economy of the country. The lockdown was mandated when the total confirmed cases in the country were just about 131 cases and 2 deaths as on the 30th of March, but then, it gradually eased the lockdown when confirmed cases hit about 2,805 cases with 94 deaths; since then, the curve has been on the rise.
“So, what has changed, the curve hasn’t flattened? recovery rate has not increased, the death rate has not diminished…”, these and many more are the everyday questions.
As at June 8, 2020, the total “Confirmed Cases” of Covid-19 released by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control is less by 26 confirmed cases: that is, the total individual states’ daily confirmed cases and country daily confirmed cases summed up to 12,512 instead of the 12,486 posted on the NCDC Covid-19 website.
For correctional purposes, see the dates where the errors on the total confirmed cases were discovered, where “less by” means minus and “up by” means add: less by 2 on 30/Apr; less by 1 on 30/Apr; less by 1 on 03/May; up by 2 on 05/ May; less by 2 on 09/ May; less by 1 on 10/ May; less by 2 on 13/ May; less by 4 on 14/ May; less by 8 on 18/ May and less by 7 on the 6th of May 2020.
On a region by region basis, the number of confirmed cases in the country is due largely to the number of cases in the southwest and northwest region where 52.81 per cent of the infected persons in Nigeria are from southwest region alone, followed by 18.21 per cent from the northwest.
What this means is that, if we remove the number of confirmed cases in the southwest and the northwest region from the total number of confirmed cases in the country, only 3,626 persons would have been confirmed to have contracted the coronavirus in Nigeria as at the reference date.
By proxy, the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) of a state/region can serve as a reflection of the commercial activities going on in a state/region. This can explain (a factor), but not exclusive to other reasons, why the contagion is widespread in the southwest.
Unlike the southwest region which is a commercial nerve centre, the high incidence of confirmed cases in the northwest could not have been due mainly to high commercial activities as the region was 4th out of the 6 regions in terms of commerce (using IGR 2019 as proxy); then, other factors than commerce must be responsible for the spread within the northwest region.
According to the IGR as at December 2019, from top to least, and using the IGR as proxy to commercial activities in the region, southwest leads the pack, followed by south-south, northcentral, northwest, southeast and northeast.
The incidence of confirmed cases in the southwest region is driven by the number of confirmed cases in Lagos, as Lagos alone is responsible for 87.29 per cent of the confirmed cases within the region. As at the reference date, Lagos reported 5,767 confirmed cases, 944 discharged cases, 67 deaths, while the remaining 4,756 infected persons still lay sick.
If we were to exclude the confirmed cases of coronavirus in Lagos in the southwest region, only 840 cases would have been confirmed in the southwest region. This would have placed the southwest region as 5th most infected region of the 6 regions in Nigeria.
Although the Lagos Government has already eased the lockdown despite the huge number of confirmed cases, it therefore raised the question whether it was necessary to have halted economic activities in the first place given that we are back to work but this time with guidelines to follow.
In the northwest region, Kano is the epicenter of the coronavirus with almost half (43.84 per cent) of the total cases within the region. As at the reference date, Kano recorded 999 confirmed cases with 450 discharged and 48 deaths, while 501 persons are still infected with the virus. The remaining 6 states within northwest constituted the remaining 56.16 per cent of the cases in the region.
Aside these two outlier regions (southwest and northwest), the number of confirmed cases in each of the remaining 4 regions are not more than 3,626 cases. Where the northcentral recorded 1,379 cases representing 11.02 per cent of the total confirmed cases in the country; northeast, 976 cases (representing 7.80 per cent); south-south, 958 (representing 7.66 per cent), the least of 313 infected cases (representing 2.50 per cent of the total infected cases) were recorded in the southeast.
Although the southeast recorded the least infected cases among other regions, the states therein are not the states with the lowest number of infected cases of the coronavirus.
As this pandemic loom, businesses across these regions are contending with revenue generation and disrupted supply chains as governments have mandated shutdowns and quarantine measures to curb the spread, which adversely affected and commerce.
All the sectors of the economies in these regions had their share of the cake—from manufacturing to education, traditional retail, professional sports and entertainment, among others. Many businesses within these sectors have had their operations crippled by the restrictions resulting in significant losses.
Demand, supply and workforce availability have all been affected in the manufacturing sector across regions as manufacturers struggle to sustain productivity in the absence of digital infrastructure to support remote operations.
On the contrary, this opened windows of opportunities for digitally-enabled businesses. The telecommunications industry is rising to the challenge; network providers have become the drivers during the lockdown and are experiencing a revenue surge because the internet has become essential for connection.
