Expect spike in Covid-19 cases in August, says Lagos health commissioner

There will be a spike in the number of Covid-19 cases in Lagos next month (August), Akin Abayomi, the state commissioner for health has hinted.

Abayomi told reporters at Alausa, Ikeja that the expected rise would be as a result of modelling carried out on the pandemic in the state.

“Modelling is not always accurate. So, this is just a postulation and I hope Lagos State will soon flatten the curve.

“We are refining the model so that we can get a better grasp when the cases will peak and when we are likely to experience the downward trend of the outbreak,” he said.

The commissioner also said that the rapid diagnostic test has proven unreliable as there have been several contradicting results from its use.

“Rapid diagnostic test has been put through a rigorous validation process and all tests have failed as they do not have enough accuracy that are reliable enough for the Covid-19 response.

The test gives negative result when the patient is positive and vice versa, these misleading results have led to deaths of patients who are positive as they do not recognise the importance of being moved to the isolation facilities.”

This experience, he said, was not peculiar to Nigeria, as the World Health Organisation (WHO) has not been able to get a rapid diagnostic test certified for the virus.

On Covid-19 figures in the state, he said: “We have diagnosed 13,543 cases of which 2,476 persons have been admitted, the rest are being managed in communities and 9066 persons have recovered in communities, 275 have been discharged from our isolation centres.

“We have up to date 172 deaths related to Covid-19 and that is a combination of deaths within our isolation facilities and in communities”.

The commissioner said the government plans to increase the number of private laboratories accredited to carry out Covid-19 testing.

“Currently, we are carrying about 1000 tests per day. We hope to see an increase in both the private sector testing and the public sector testing,” he said.

According to him, Eti-Osa, Alimosho, Kosofe, Oshodi-Isolo local government areas account for 60 per cent of positives cases recorded in the state.

The state is expected to open another isolation centre in Ajao Estate to take more positive cases for proper management