Lagos commissioner for health, Akin Abayomi, has expressed the fear that the Coronavirus pandemic infection could rise to 39,000 cases in the state.
As at Friday, March 27, Lagos has 44 of the total 65 cases so far recorded in Nigeria. The state is trailed far behind by the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja), which has 14 cases.
Abayomi said although it may be the worst scenario, it could, however, be limited to 13,000 if the residents of Lagos adhere to and practices the measures directed by the government, especially social distancing, and stay-home order.
Ikeja and Eti-Osa local government areas, according to the state government, are showing trends of recording more cases than the rest of the state.
“Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst-case scenario is that we may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos, but if everyone practices good social distancing, the figure will be limited to 13,000.
“If we add social distancing to active contact tracing, then we will be able to bend the curve further,” Abayomi said.
The health commissioner, however, said that the figures were small compared to outbreaks around the globe.
“The figures may seem alarming at this point, but this is just to emphasize to the Lagos community to follow instructions of the incident commander to make sure that we practice social distancing and other preventive measures.
“Looking at the same time frame from the introduction of the index case, you can see that Lagos State is not seen anywhere near what Spain, Italy and Iran are showing.
Speaking further, the commissioner said, at weeks two and three of the index case, Lagos was flat and at week four, has 37 cases, while at the same fourth week, Italy, Iran and Spain had more than 20,000 cases.
“So, we are doing something right in the state,” he noted.