Global defence aviation market predicted to grow 2.4% a head 2020

European aerospace and defence company Airbus Defence & Space (Airbus DS) said it expects the global defence market to grow at an annual average rate of 2.4% between now and 2020. Currently, total global defence expenditure is estimated at about €400-billion.
In terms of regions, defence spending in the United States and Canada is expected to show no growth, while at the other extreme, in Asia Pacific, it is forecast to increase by 6% a year. Defence spending in the Middle East and Africa is predicted to go up by 3% each year and in Latin America by 2%. The company’s forecast splits Europe into two groups – France, Germany, Spain and the UK in one group and the rest of Europe in the other group. Defence spending for the four bigger countries is expected to increase by an average of 1% annually, while the prediction for the rest of Europe is 2%.
According to Airbus Defence & Space marketing and sales head, Jean-Pierre Talamoni, in a recent presentation, “Aircraft platforms represent the biggest defence segment by far, accounting for a quarter of defence procurement budgets worldwide,” “The UAV (unmanned air vehicle) segment represents a small portion of defence expenditure for the time being but this segment will see the highest growth in coming years.”
Between this year and 2025, military aircraft are forecast to continue to account for 25% of global defence budgets, with space systems, command, control, communications, computers and intelligence (C4I, as they are known for short), missiles and UAVs jointly responsible for 21% and everything else totalling 54%.
Within the military aircraft segment, the top market regions are Asia and the Middle East. Between now and 2024, Asia is expected to account for 45% of all new military aircraft sales, while the Middle East and Africa together are likely to account for 21%. While Europe’s ‘bigger four’ should take 7%, the rest of Europe is likely to account for 15%. Latin America is forecast to take 10% and the US 2%.
In numbers, global market demand over the next decade is going to amount to about 750 combat aircraft, some 350 special mission aircraft (such as maritime patrol and surveillance machines and intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance – or ISTAR – aeroplanes), around 150 heavy transport aircraft and about 85 air-to-air refuelling tankers.
In terms of the global defence aviation market, the company sees five major trends already emerging. These are increasing competition, the diversification of the customer base, UAVs, the continuing development of the used market and ‘versatility and affordability’.
In what Airbus DS describes as “increasing customer density”, new and serious competitors are emerging in a number of military aviation segments.
Thus, Brazil’s Embraer, already well established in the advanced training/light attack market with its Super Tucano, is moving into the medium lift/strategic transport/tanker area with its KC-390 (a direct competitor for the Lockheed Martin C-130J), while Korea Aerospace Industries’ KT-1 basic trainer has been acquired by Indonesia, Peru, Senegal and Turkey, as well as South Korea. In addition, several countries are developing indigenous aircraft programmes to equip their own air forces.
On the other hand, the number of customers is also increasing, as smaller air forces move to acquire new (and more cost-effective) aircraft in place of expensive-to-maintain used ones, and as police and other agencies obtain military versions of aircraft in place of less capable civil versions of the same types.

 

MIKE OCHONMA