In 2024, commodity prices were projected to soften by 3 percent. Further declines are expected in 2025 and 2026, with the World Bank projecting that commodities will hit their lowest level post-COVID in 2026.
However, the anticipated declines are not uniform across all commodities, as weather-related supply disruptions and conflict-driven risks influenced specific sectors in 2024, with such shocks anticipated in 2024.
For commodity traders, these dynamics have created pockets of strong returns, and Nigerian traders were not left out of the largesse. In the first nine months of 2024, Nigeria recorded N6.22 trillion from non-oil exports, which was 98 percent greater than the N3.14 trillion recorded from non-oil exports throughout 2023.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s agricultural exports surged to N2.9 trillion in the first nine months of 2024—a remarkable 271 percent increase compared to N780.5 billion during the same period in 2023. While the 69 percent depreciation of the Naira plays a significant role in this growth, it is not the sole factor driving these figures.
Read also: LCFE, Lagos market traders sign MOU for commodities auctions
In this report, BusinessDay examines some of the top-performing commodities globally in 2024, leveraging insights from World Bank data to provide a comprehensive analysis.
1. Cocoa – 121%
Cocoa which is Nigeria’s number major agricultural export appreciated by 121 percent in 2024, with the price moving from $2.88/kg as of 2023 to $6.37/kg. In the London Stock Exchange, cocoa futures traded at an all-time high of £10,137 per tonne in April. In December, the market price of the product hit an all-time high of $11,839 per tonne.
In Nigeria’s flagship commodities exchange, AFEX, cocoa hit an all-time high price of N15,000 per kg in December 2024.
2. Coffee robusta – 67%
Coffee robusta, which is the second most common coffee variety in the world appreciated by 67 percent in 2024. The commodity moved from $2.88/kg as of 2023 to $3.84/kg as of 2024. Coffee Robusta is the species of coffee that grows in Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria inclusive. However, Nigeria also grows coffee arabica, the more common coffee variety.
Although, Nigeria is not a big supplier of coffee on the global stage, coffee exporters were not left out of the global party.
3. Rubber, RSS3 – 43%
Ribbed smoked sheets rubber (Rubber, RSS) appreciated by 43 percent in 2024, with global average prices moving from $1.38/kg to $1.98/kg between 2023 and 2024. This natural rubber form is made by processing rubber latex by coagulating them into a solid mass. The coagulated latex is rolled into thin sheets, and these sheets are then dried.
Rubber RSS3 is a grade of the ribbed smoked sheet rubber, and it is used for the production of vehicle tires, footwear, V-belts, and rubber-based adhesives.
4. Orange – 42%
Orange also returned 42 percent in 2024, with its average price moving from $1.38/kg to $1.96/kg. During the year, the price of oranges and by extension, orange juice surged because of a heat wave in Brazil which caused the worst harvest of oranges since 1988.
Brazil is the world’s largest producer of oranges, with Nigeria appearing on the list of the top 10 producers in the world.
5. Palm kernel oil – 41%
Palm kernel oil appreciated in 2024, with its average price moving from $868.09 per metric tonne as of 2023 to $1226.53 per metric tonne as of 2024. As one of the derivatives from palm oil production, palm kernel oil is a significant agricultural export from Nigeria. As of 2023, Nigeria’s palm kernel oil output was estimated to be about 393,000 tonnes.
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