A new global report released by Allianz, one of the world’s largest investors, managing around 809 billion euros on behalf of its insurance customers, has projected Nigeria’s GDP to grow by a further 2.3percent in full year 2022.
The Allianz Economic Outlook report says Nigeria’s GDP growth by the end of the year would be lower than that of countries like Senegal, Kenya, Ivory Coast, and Ghana, but higher than the numbers for Angola and South Africa.
The report also shows that the GDP expectations from the SSA countries in 2022 will see South Africa and Nigeria grow at two percent and 2.3 percent respectively, while Angola and Algeria will grow moderately at 2.2 percent and 2.4 percent, accordingly.
Other country projections include those of Senegal, which is projected at annual GDP growth of 6.1 percent; followed by Kenya (5.6%), Ivory Coast (5.5%), Ghana (5.4%), Egypt (4.6%), Mozambique (4.6%), Namibia (3.7%), Morocco (3.3%), Tunisia (3.2%), and Gabon (3.2%) in that order.
Overall, the report said the continent would record a “mild growth” at +3.5percent.
The research suggests that the mild growth would be partly due to rising inflation increasing monetary policy rates in Nigeria and other African countries.
“…amid rapidly rising inflation to double digits in most countries, monetary policy rates are expected to increase in Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, South Africa and Egypt. In an environment of continued sanitary uncertainty, this monetary tightening is expected to put a brake on growth,” it said.
Read also: GDP growth fails to lift job-creating sectors
It predicts that food security situations would worsen in conflict and climate events-torn southern and eastern Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, as energy prices and food inflation continues to bite hard in other African countries like Nigeria, Ghana, and Angola.
Recall that Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported last week that the country’s food inflation dropped by 3.44percent to 17.13percent in January 2022 from 20.57percent in January 2021.
But Allianz Economic Outlook also warned that Ethiopia’s “deteriorating security situation” could make things worse in the region because it “entails significant risk of spillovers to the region, including migration flows to the Kenyan border.”
It described Tunisia, Ghana, Mozambique, Kenya and South Africa as “hot spots regarding debt sustainability”, with Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Burkina Faso expected to see current account deficits only improve slightly in 2022 after deteriorating in 2021.
On the global stage, it said growth is expected to remain “robust but uneven”, with developed countries gaining more due to “rising divergence between advanced and emerging market economies.”
The Eurozone is expected to see a growth of +4.1percent and the US to grow at +3.9percent. China’s growth will slow to about +5.2percent due to current disruptions in the real estate sector and the government’s fixation on financial stability.
Because of China’s influence on emerging markets, its lowered growth is likely to affect those markets negatively, the report said.
In all, global trade in volume is expected to grow by +5.4percent in 2022 and +4.0percent in 2023.
Allianz has been operating in Africa since 1912 in the following countries: Egypt, South Africa through Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Ivory Coast, Madagascar, Morocco, Senegal, Cameroon and Congo.
The Allianz Group is one of the world’s leading insurers and asset managers with 126 million private and corporate customers in more than 70 countries.
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