The election of Joe Biden as America’s next president has revived the hope that Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala can make history by becoming the first African and first woman Director General of the World Trade Organisation, WTO. Had President Trump been re-elected, that would have been utterly impossible. Yet, despite the hope raised by Biden’s election, the process of her appointment could still be very long and uncertain!
Last week, the WTO postponed indefinitely the General Council meeting scheduled to confirm Dr Okonjo-Iweala’s appointment. The chair of the selection committee, Ambassador David Walker of New Zealand, said the meeting was postponed “until further notice” to enable the committee to “continue undertaking consultations with delegations.”
A history-maker himself, Biden should support Okonjo-Iweala for the WTO job and help her make history!
Of course, had the meeting gone ahead, the US would still have rejected Dr Okonjo-Iweala’s confirmation. But with Biden, a multilateralist, as the next president, the WTO must hope it can persuade his incoming administration to back Okonjo-Iweala for the DG job.
Truth is, Dr Okonjo-Iweala cannot become the DG of the WTO without the endorsement of the United States, the world’s largest economy and WTO’s single largest financial contributor.
Secondly, while voting is theoretically possible, it would be regime-destroying to try to override the US’s opposition by resorting to a formal vote. That apart, voting is an exceptional departure from the WTO’s customary practice of decision-making by consensus. So, it would continue to seek a consensus through consultations.
In 1999, it took one year to appoint a DG as the WTO could not choose between Dr Mike Moore of New Zealand and Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi of Thailand. In the end, instead of voting, they split the term of office between them: Dr Moore did a term of three years, from 1999 to 2002, and Dr Supachai a term of three years, from 2002 to 2005!
But the WTO regarded term-sharing as a precedent that shouldn’t be followed. So, it introduced a process of successive rounds of consultations to identify the candidate best placed to attract a consensus. Yet, it couldn’t build a consensus around Dr Okonjo-Iweala. So, why did the Trump administration break the consensus? And will the Biden administration join it and endorse her selection?
Let’s start with the first question. In May, the WTO set up a three-man selection committee – the Troika – to consult WTO members and select a candidate to replace Roberto Azevêdo, who resigned as DG on August 31.
After two rounds of consultations, the Troika reduced the original eight candidates to two, namely: Nigeria’s Dr Okonjo-Iweala and South Korea’s Ms Yoo Myung-hee. On October 28, the chair of the Troika, David Walker, announced that Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was “the candidate best poised to attain consensus and become the 7th Director-General.”
But the US refused to endorse Dr Okonjo-Iweala for the job. Rather, it said Ms Yoo, a “bona fide trade expert”, was the best person for the job, arguing that the WTO should be “led by someone with real, hands on experience in the field.” According to US delegations to the WTO, Ms Yoo, who has 25 years trade experience and currently serves as South Korea’s trade minister, would be able to “hit the ground running.”
The issue of Okonjo-Iweala’s lack of trade expertise came up throughout the selection process, but most WTO members were impressed by her outstanding experiences as former managing director of the World Bank and former finance minister of Nigeria, credited with tough domestic reforms and tough negotiations to secure debt relief for Nigeria.
But did President Trump reject Dr Okonjo-Iweala as next DG of the WTO simply because she lacked hands-on trade experience? Well, that’s doubtful. Truth is, there were at least two far more important factors that shaped the decision.
The first was about strategic relationships and interests. The US, under President Trump, could not support a Nigerian against a South Korean, given its strong strategic alliance with South Korea! Furthermore, the positions of the EU, which genuinely wanted an African DG, and China, which rejected the South Korean candidate for political reasons, probably irked President Trump.
Truth is, China too wielded a veto during the process. After the resignation of Roberto Azevêdo as DG in August, Ambassador Alan Wolff, an American and currently a Deputy Director-General, was proposed as acting DG. But China vetoed the proposal; thus, Wolff was not appointed as acting Director General. So, the US was not the only one wielding veto power!
Nevertheless, America’s rejection of Dr Okonjo-Iweala for the WTO top job was puzzling, given that she is a US citizen. Why would America act against the interests of her own citizen? By obtaining US citizenship last year, Okonjo-Iweala would rightly have expected that her US citizenship would boost the US government’s support for her international ambitions.
But not under President Trump! As far as President Trump was concerned, Okonjo-Iweala’s US citizenship did not matter; what mattered was her worldview – what she stood for!
Which brings us to the second key factor in the Trump administration’s decision: Okonjo-Iweala’s worldview. President Trump certainly saw her as one of the globalists he loathes with a passion. Dr Okonjo-Iweala’s affiliations with Harvard, MIT, World Bank, Twitter etc, would not have impressed Trump, who described such organisations as “global special interests”. He was also not impressed by her high-profile endorsements from liberal-multilateralists like former prime ministers of the UK, Australia and New Zealand.
President Trump is a rabid anti-globalist, anti-multilateralist, who certainly considered Okonjo-Iweala as part of the global liberal elites that he utterly loathes. Okonjo-Iweala is simply not on the same wavelength as Donald Trump and could not have received his administration’s support!
So, now to our second question: Will the Biden administration endorse Okonjo-Iweala? Well, the omen seems good for two reasons.
First, president-elect Joe Biden is a committed multilateralist, who wants to repair the damage President Trump did to multilateralism. For instance, he has vowed to re-join the Paris Climate Agreement and to stop US withdrawal from the World Health Organisation. The major WTO members, such as the EU, would draw encouragement from Biden’s support for multilateralism and try to persuade him to join with the consensus of other members in backing Okonjo-Iweala for the job.
Second, while Okonjo-Iweala’s contacts in the US and around the world were unhelpful under Trump, they should work for her under Biden. For instance, all her networks of institutions, think tanks, technocrats and politicians in the US, which Trump hated, have strong links with the Democratic Party and would give her leverage with the Biden administration.
What’s more, her US citizenship should help with a President Biden, who is pro-blacks and pro-immigrants!
But there are two possible challenges. First, the US Trade Representative (USTR) and trade diplomats, who fought against Okonjo-Iweala’s selection, are Trump appointees and may still be in office for some time. They would still be influential, and the Biden administration may not want to override their views simply on political grounds.
Their sensitivities would have to be managed carefully to avoid a feeling of humiliation. Secondly, South Korea is America’s strongest strategic ally in East Asia. The Biden administration would tread carefully before withdrawing the US support for Ms Yoo.
Yet, given the overwhelming support of WTO members for Okonjo-Iweala and considering that China and Japan will never support the South Korean candidate, the Biden administration is likely to join the existing consensus in backing Dr Okonjo-Iweala, probably in return for WTO reforms.
Surely, if President Biden endorses Dr Okonjo-Iweala, he would help her make history by becoming the first African and woman head of the WTO just as he helped Kamala Harris make history by becoming the first black and woman vice president of America.
A history-maker himself, Biden should support Okonjo-Iweala for the WTO job and help her make history!
