Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former governor of Lagos State, has certainly not taken his quest for Nigeria’s presidency next year lightly. Since he told President Muhammadu Buhari about his presidential ambition on January 10, Tinubu has been creating momentum around what he described as his “lifelong ambition.”
Last week, he met the caucuses of his party, All Progressives Congress (APC), in the Senate and the House of Representatives. As if reading from a script written by Tinubu, both caucuses reportedly endorsed him as their sole aspirant for the party’s presidential ticket. It was the kind of group think one would associate with Communist parties.
Well, my focus here is not the seeming obsequiousness of APC’s National Assembly caucuses, but Tinubu’s co-optation of traditional rulers in Yorubaland.
So, goes the reasoning, APC must give him its presidential ticket or lose the South-West in 2023; and his rivals must not run against him, or they will lose badly. But both tactics won’t work because the APC and Tinubu’s Yoruba rivals in the party are unlikely to succumb to such blackmail
Recently, he embarked on barnstorming visits to the palaces of Yoruba Obas to secure their blessings for his presidential ambition. The royal fathers unreservedly blessed Tinubu’s ambition and showered him with gushing endorsements.
The Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Adeyemi, told Tinubu that Yoruba ancestors “will make you president,” and ordered chiefs and traditional rulers in his sphere of influence to ensure the actualisation of the royal decree.
The Ooni of Ife, Oba Enitan Ogunwusi, invoked the spirits of his forefathers to “lead the battle and guarantee the success of the (Tinubu presidency) project.” The new Olubadan of Ibadan, Oba Lekan Balogun, said: “Tinubu should be assured that the people of Ibadan are fully behind him.” The list of royal endorsements goes on.
Obviously, the logical conclusion is that Yoruba Obas are not neutral on the 2023 Presidency, and that no other presidential aspirant, from whatever party, including the vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, if he wants to run for president, will receive the support of the leading traditional rulers in Yorubaland. After all, the Obas wouldn’t ask their ancestors to support two presidential aspirants at the same time, or would they?
Therefore, except out of courtesy and respect for the traditional institution, it’s pointless for any other presidential aspirant to visit the leading Yoruba traditional rulers.
Put simply, the Obas have settled for Tinubu. The Alaafin of Oyo gave the ancestral order. “All the ancestors in Yorubaland, get up and assist your son,” he said concerning Tinubu’s ambition!
But here’s the problem. Surely, as fathers to all, traditional rulers should receive and pray for all presidential aspirants who come to them; however, it’s beyond the pale to endorse one aspirant openly and fulsomely as Nigeria’s next president.
Why, then, would Tinubu drag Yoruba Obas into such barefaced partisanship? Self-interest, of course! At the palace of the Ooni of Ife, Tinubu said: “It is our belief that once Ooni, Orangun, Awujale, Alake, Owa, among others, speak, it (the presidency) becomes ours.”
Of course, before the presidency, Tinubu must first secure his party’s presidential ticket. Thus, corralling Yoruba Obas behind his ambition, at this early stage, is aimed at his party’s presidential primaries. Basically, Tinubu wants to signal to his party and to potential rivals in South-West APC that Yorubaland is solidly behind him; that he has the support of Yoruba Obas, and, by extension, the grassroots all sewn up.
So, goes the reasoning, APC must give him its presidential ticket or lose the South-West in 2023; and his rivals must not run against him, or they will lose badly. But both tactics won’t work because the APC and Tinubu’s Yoruba rivals in the party are unlikely to succumb to such blackmail. Yet, the tactics fit into an overarching strategy. Ignore the Olympian hyperbole about Tinubu’s abilities, the truth is that his strategy for becoming president in 2023 is based on a ferocious sense of entitlement and the opportunistic championing of an ethnic agenda.
Tinubu propounded the first theory at the palace of the Ooni of Ife when he said that he helped make Buhari president in 2015 and 2019, and so Buhari is obligated to help him become president in 2023. He proffered the second theory at the palace of the Alaafin of Oyo when he listed the positions occupied by Yorubas in the current government, including vice-president, and then said: “But we still need more.”
Thus, he frames his ambition as an ethnic agenda for Yoruba presidency, which is utterly insensitive to the Igbos, who, on grounds of fairness, have far better claims to the presidency next year than the Yorubas.
Truth is, Tinubu cannot win in the South-East and the South-South. Chief Edwin Clark, Leader of Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF), pointedly asked recently: “Who knows Tinubu as a leader in the South-South?” And, of course, Tinubu does not pretend that he wants to run a pan-Nigeria campaign. His entire strategy is based on replicating the sectional North/South-West alliance that produced victories for APC in 2015 and 2019.
Indeed, recently, Tanko Yakasai, a chieftain of Arewa Consultative Forum and Tinubu ally, set out what he regarded as the “winning” formula. In one interview, Yakasai said: “With the South-West, all Tinubu needs is for him to get about 45 to 50% of the northern votes to win the presidency”. Presumably acting on the Yakasai formula, Adeseye Ogunlewe, former minister and Tinubu acolyte, said on Arise TV that Tinubu’s support was solid in the South-West, but that Yoruba Obas should go to the North and “sell Tinubu to northern emirs.”
All of which brings us back to the role of Yoruba traditional rulers. Why are they willing tool in the Tinubu game? Even if they support his ambition, why can’t they wait until the APC presidential primary process plays itself out? By publicly endorsing Tinubu before his party’s presidential primaries, they are interfering in the internal democracy of a political party.
Read also: Osinbajo’s dilemma
In a democracy, traditional rulers derive their legitimacy not from elections, but from the implicit consent of their people. But that implicit consent requires the traditional rulers’ neutrality and non-partisanship in politics. The implicit consent can easily be eroded by partisan politics. Unfortunately, Yoruba Obas often stray too much into partisan politics.
For instance, ThisDay recently reported that the “Abuja Chapter of Yoruba Council of Obas”, led by one Oba Olusegun Salau, went to the campaign office of Tinubu Support Group in Abuja to pledge their support for Tinubu’s presidential aspiration. Think about it: Tinubu didn’t even go to these “Obas”, they went to his campaign office, debasing a revered institution!
But why are Yoruba Obas throwing their weight solely behind Tinubu? Do they agree with those attempting to intimidate Vice President Yemi Osinbajo out of running for president by mouthing the utter baloney that because Tinubu nominated him as Buhari’s running mate in 2015, after losing out on it himself, Osinbajo would be morally wrong to run against Tinubu? I addressed this issue in a previous column, so won’t rehash the arguments here.
Truth be told, Yoruba Obas have shown utter disregard for Professor Osinbajo. As vice president, he’s the highest-ranking Yoruba holding public office today, and respected worldwide for his intellect, competence and integrity. As an active vice president, Osinbajo has a job to do and can’t prematurely declare a presidential ambition and make high-profile political visits to palaces. But it’s inconceivable that he won’t want to run for president. So, beyond the primitive practice of godfatherism and money politics, why would Yoruba Obas not consider his political aspiration?
Last week, Daily Trust reported that Osinbajo had told President Buhari he wants to run for president and may soon publicly declare his ambition. Having asked their gods and ancestors to make Tinubu president, what would Yoruba Obas say about Osinbajo? Nothing!
Well, if you ask me, Osinbajo should take his case to the highest authority and seek the endorsement of the God of gods and the King of kings!
