The Zelensky effect

The title of this piece calls to mind a thriller from James Hadley Chase or Robert Ludlum.

Volodymr Zelensky was born on January 25, 1978, in Kryvyy Rih, in Ukraine, which was then one of the Soviet Socialist Republics. His parents were Jews. He graduated with a law degree in 2000.

He embarked on a career in theatre and comedy, becoming famous for a remarkable television series titled ‘Servant of the People.’ In the drama, Zelensky played the role of a maverick Ukrainian who was unexpectedly elected to the office of President.

To be dazzled by the Zelensky Effect into thinking there is another way to peace for his long-suffering people is to become part of a fond, widely held delusion, but a delusion all the same

In 2018, Zelensky in real life contested and won the presidential election against the incumbent Petro Poroshenko.

In office he showed himself as an adept administrator and mobiliser. He attempted to work for greater unity with Russian speaking parts of the country. He relied on the social media, especially Instagram, for his communication.

Zelensky was the first Ukrainian President of Jewish extraction. One of his key election promises was to end the low-grade civil war that was already raging in some dissident areas of the country, where many people claimed affinity with Russia. In October 2019, he was able to announce a preliminary deal with the separatists. The deal required that Ukrainian government respect the ‘elections’ the in the Dumbas region, while Russia would withdraw the soldiers it had sent into the region under anonymous cover.

Zelensky’s presidency was bedevilled early by a bullying President Trump who demanded that he should carry out intrusive investigations into the affairs of Hunter Biden, a businessman who had dealings in Ukraine, to acquire political dirt on his father Joe Biden, who was contesting against Trump for the Presidency.

The prospect of Ukraine ultimately becoming a member of NATO had, for several years, been a major sore point in the relationship with Russia. Russia resented the increasing encroachment of the Western military alliance on the shrinking belt of former Soviet Republics, which had become independent entities following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

By the beginning of 2021, Russia was showing its war-like intent towards Ukraine. It began a massive military build-up on their common border.

The story of the past three months, in Western and Eastern Europe, is the story of the war that Vladimir Putin went on to unleash on his neighbour.

The Russo-Ukrainian war is an aberration in the modern day – a war of conquest on the European mainland. The rationalisations provided by Russia, the aggressor, are laughable. It speaks of the need to ‘rescue’ Russian-speaking peoples of Ukraine, who are being ‘oppressed.’ It speaks of needing to ‘de-Nazify’ the country, bizarrely omitting the fact that the Ukrainian president is himself a Jew. The one genuine issue they have raised, which could provide the way back to peaceful negotiation, ultimately, is that Russia is dead set against the prospect of Ukraine providing a toehold for a hostile NATO presence in its backyard. Despite Western propaganda, it is a perfectly legitimate position for Russia to take. Precedents abound, including President Kennedy’s reaction to the Cuban Missile crisis and even the recent threats of attack USA issued against the Solomon Islands if they allowed China to set up a military base on their land.

Russia’s expectation at the beginning was apparently that its neighbour would collapse like a pack of cards once the guns began to boom. Ukraine has done no such thing. Russian conventional power has been demystified.

Much of the credit for this should go to Volodymyr Zelensky. He has been a one-man army, rallying his people, attacking, and defeating Vladimir Putin in all his areas of weakness – shattering the shibboleth of Russian invincibility, debunking the lies and disinformation that pass for government information in Russia.

From his mobile hideaway somewhere in Kyiv, Zelensky has addressed the United Nations, the American Congress, the British Parliament, and even international sporting and entertainment gatherings. He wants to address the African Union. The apparent success to be had from denigrating the Russian aggressor all over the world almost suggests that Russia will soon capitulate.

From an earlier position where he was ready to talk to Putin and look for compromise on his real grievances, Zelensky is now talking exultantly of ‘defeating’ Russia. The Western news media are being encouraged to speak ominously of arraigning Russians before the International Criminal Court in the Hague.

Read also: Russia, Ukraine and the innocents

All the great public relations achievements that are the Zelensky Effect fail to take cognizance of realpolitik and may be leading the world farther and farther away from a quick solution to the conflict.

No matter how atrociously Russian soldiers behave in their despicable effort to bomb Ukrainian cities back into the dark ages, Russian soldiers will not face the court in the Hague, because Russia, like USA, does not recognise the authority of the ICC on its citizens.

Unless Russia is defeated in a full-scale war, including nuclear war, in which case neither ‘victor’ not ‘loser’ will be in any fit state to face any court, assuming there are any courts standing. Russia may not defeat Ukraine, but Ukraine will not defeat Russia either. The unrealistic expectation that this could happen must stop being sold to the naive public in propaganda on BBC and CNN and other news media.

It is important to mitigate the Zelensky Effect with a strong dose of reality. The first tentative move in this direction was made recently by the visit of the Secretary General of the UN to Moscow to speak with Putin. People like Narendra Chandra, as well as Cyril Ramaphosa and even the President of Turkey who have stood aside from the conflict urgently need to be recruited to begin the tedious process of mediation. To be dazzled by the Zelensky Effect into thinking there is another way to peace for his long-suffering people is to become part of a fond, widely held delusion, but a delusion all the same.