The pandemic and global food uncertainty

Globally, policy decision makers are challenged on how to navigate extreme uncertainty and urgency due to coronavirus pandemic. In the midst of the confusion, it appears there will be shortage of food or mass starvation globally. Let no one be deceived. The probability is high that there is going to be global scarcity of food.

That there will be shortage of food supply globally in the immediate future is not a component of the “perception battle” that some scholars argue is happening in most countries. But certainly, most nations are facing logistical problems as a result of planting, harvesting and transporting food. And experts are saying this will leave many nations particularly those less developed countries exposed in the months ahead. Countries that would be hardly hit are those who rely mostly on food imports.

Some of the reasons adduced by experts for the looming food crisis are as follows: “The sudden loss in income for millions who are already living from hand-to-mouth; the collapse in oil prices; widespread scarcity of hard currency as a result of low remittances from those in diaspora; climate change challenges; violence; insurgency; population displacements; and humanitarian disasters.”

Humanitarianism, according to scholars, is expected to achieve good in this world but it is not always a lasting good. Theologians have posited that “transformation of human hearts” is key towards solving the problems of poverty, hunger and violence. Efforts can be made to change the fortunes of many poor people, feed the hungry, remove insurgents and terrorists from societies. But unless the hearts of policy decision makers are with the requirements of the people they lead, many of those ugly situations of the past may raise their ugly heads.

So today, with the coronavirus pandemic, there is global humanitarian catastrophe. Millions of civilians in conflict-ridden countries including many women and children are being pushed to the brink of starvation. This sounds shocking and one is tempted to feel that those experts who are cautioning about likely global food scarcity are prophets of doom. No, they are not!

For example, the UN World Food Program has given the numbers: “821 million people go to bed hungry every night all over the world, chronically hungry, and as the new Global Report on Food Crisis published Shows, there are a further 135 million people facing crisis levels of hunger or worse. That means 135 million people on earth are marching towards the brink of starvation. But now the World Food Program analysis shows that due to the coronavirus, an additional 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020.” This brings the projected total figure to 265 million people.”

Most people can now appreciate how an unseen novel virus popularly called COVID-19 has overwhelmed public health systems worldwide. Economies have collapsed as a result of contraction. Nigeria’s economy contracted by about 6 percent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2020. This is not encouraging and the nation is likely to go into recession.

What is the solution to this impending food uncertainty and starvation? Since food insecurity will be a global issue, there must be peace in all countries to stop the slide into hunger and starvation

Statistics show that food prices in Nigeria surged by 15.48 percent (Y-o-Y) which is the highest since 2018. Food inflation has been in double digits for more than 3 years amid a weak currency and border closure. Recently, the Federal Government had to borrow over 5000 MT of grains from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to feed citizens as hunger bites harder. The grains which are on loan from the sub-regional body will be paid back on a grain basis, according to media reports. But what about the Anchor Borrowers Program of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)?

The CBN said it would fund 1.6 million farmers across the country in the 2020 wet season through its Anchor Borrowers Program. This step is to ensure that food security is guaranteed in the country. Inconsistent rainfall pattern is a challenge with respect to food security. But we experience floods in some parts of the country due to climate change. Recently, floods washed away more than 25 percent of Nigeria’s rice harvest, according to Bloomberg. The flood ravaged rice producing states in Nigeria- Kebbi, Jigawa and Nasarawa. Although, statistics show that Nigeria is the world’s second-largest importer of the grain, 2 million tons of rice was lost to flood in Kebbi as its River break banks. This is more than 25 percent of the previously national output of 8 million tons, according to experts.

There is speculation that the recent increase in the pump price of petrol is expected to have an impact on the price of rice of other market commodities. There are 7 million Nigerians living with hunger and there is food insecurity in 3 states and the Federal Capital Territory, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The statement issued from the highest level of government early in the year 2020 is that Nigeria is self-sufficient in food. Is Nigeria really self-sufficient in food? No!

What is the solution to this impending food uncertainty and starvation? Since food insecurity will be a global issue, there must be peace in all countries to stop the slide into hunger and starvation. Secondly, all parties to conflicts must allow unimpeded humanitarian access to vulnerable communities. Supply chains have to keep moving and all closed borders are opened. All global, regional and sub-regional bodies are to provide leadership through coordinated action to support life-saving humanitarian assistance.

What we may likely see in the international environment are nations first providing food security for their own people. A world without a common purpose on food security is one that will invite many problems. International institutions should encourage member states to consider collaborating with each other on food security. Less developed countries must mechanise farming and provide dams in their countries for irrigation farming. This is the time to act decisively in order to prevent global hunger pandemic. Otherwise, the world, according to pundits, risk setting in motion a costly and chaotic era of rising hunger and poverty. Thank you.