What exactly do the Yoruba want as a constituent part of Nigeria? What is the political agenda of the South-West? Well, without a doubt, it is restructuring. The South-West has long been the most vocal among Nigeria’s six geo-political zones on the issue of political restructuring. From demand for sovereign national conference under President Olusegun Obasanjo and advocacy for national conference under President Goodluck Jonathan to current clamour for restructuring under President Muhammadu Buhari, the Yoruba have been at the forefront of agitations for a new political and constitutional settlement for Nigeria, for genuine federalism.
The Yoruba believe that their region was better off when it had autonomy and was able to develop at its own pace. Indeed, the foundations for the South-West’s development and prosperity were laid by Chief Obafemi Awolowo, as premier of Western Nigeria, when the region was granted autonomy in the early 1950s, then self-ruled in 1957. The 1960 Independence Constitution and the 1963 Republican Constitution were also based on the model of regional autonomy within a federal structure, “with each region self-governing in its own concerns”, as the UK Secretary of State for the Colonies, Iain Macleod MP, put it during the debate on ‘Nigeria Independence Bill’ in theHouse of Commons on July 15, 1960.
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Today, the South-West agenda is a return to regional autonomy, regional self-government, within a federal structure so that every region can develop at its own pace. Thus, for the Yoruba, restructuring is an article of faith, a desideratum, and the goal is bigger than, and transcends, the personal ambition of any individual. Indeed, the issue of restructuring is so important to the Yoruba that if you give them a choice between a) producing a president, with no restructuring and b) having a properly restructured Nigeria, but skipping a slot for the presidency, they will opt for the latter.
Despite Tinubu’s two-facedness on Yoruba’s restructuring demand, his self-serving SWAGA minions are falsely juxtaposing his putative presidential ambition with the South-West agenda and bouncing Yoruba leaders and traditional rulers into embracing the deception.
It is in the context of the foregoing that the campaign for the presumed presidential ambition of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former governor of Lagos State and a leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) becomes interesting. This is because those fronting his yet-undeclared presidential ambition claim that the ambition is synonymous with the South-West agenda. Operating under the banner of SWAGA, acronym for “South-West Agenda for Asiwaju”, Tinubu’s acolytes are touring the length and breadth of the South-West, telling Yoruba leaders and traditional rulers that a Tinubu presidency would advance the collective interests of the Yoruba, or the South-West agenda.
That claim is, of course, false and utterly misleading; yet, some, with short memories, are under the misguided belief that a President Tinubu would actualise the Yoruba’s long-standing restructuring agenda. Yet, in truth, Tinubu pays no more than lip service to restructuring, treating the issue as a political football. Just consider the history.
In 2014, against the wishes of most Yoruba, Tinubu rallied his party, APC, in strong opposition to the Jonathan administration’s national conference. The APC later rejected the conference report, widely believed to be capable, if fully implemented, of moving Nigeria closer to genuine federalism. Restructuring requires both political and elite consensus. Thus, once APC, then government-in-waiting, opportunistically rejected the Jonathan national conference, its report was dead in the water!
But the APC wanted to show that it was not averse to restructuring and, particularly ahead of the 2015 general election, wanted to win the votes of the South-West people, for whom restructuring was a key demand. So, the party made the following commitment in its manifesto. “We will initiate action to amend our Constitution with a view to devolving powers, duties and responsibilities to the states and local government to entrench true federalism and the Federal spirit”. During the presidential campaign in 2015, Tinubu and other South-West APC leaders played up the political-reform and power-devolution pledge to sell Buhari’s candidacy to their people, and Buhari went along with the campaign vow.
Yet, more than six and a half years in power, with barely 18 months left, President Buhari has done nothing to keep that key manifesto promise, and Tinubu rarely says anything beyond the perfunctory or platitudinous on the issue. He cannot bring himself to challenge Buhari’s adamantine opposition to restructuring; Buhari even ignores the report of his own party’s committee on restructuring, led by Nasir El-Rufai, governor of Kaduna State.
So, one must wonder: Why has Tinubu not pushed hard for the fulfilment of a commitment that his party made in its Constitution and Manifesto, which it described as “Honest Contract” with Nigeria? Tinubu is called “The National Leader” of APC, the definite article “the” suggesting significant influence. Yet, in truth, when it comes to President Buhari and the North’s powerful interests opposed to restructuring, Tinubu has zilch influence.
The main concession, of some interest to the South-West, that Tinubu secured from the Buhari government was purely symbolic. Ahead of the 2019 presidential election, and with an eye on the South-West votes, Tinubu apparently managed to persuade Buhari to declare June 12 as ‘Democracy Day’ to commemorate the annulment of the presidential election of June 12, 1993, presumed to have been won by MKO Abiola. The Federal Government also conferred Nigeria’s highest national honour, Grand Commander of the Order of the Federal Republic, GCFR, on Abiola, while also naming the Abuja National Stadium after him.
Of course, these purely symbolic gestures made some people in the South-West happy, even though President Buhari did not formally acknowledge Abiola as the winner of the annulled June 12, 1993 election. But, more importantly, the symbolic gestures cannot, by any stretch of the imagination, substitute for restructuring Nigeria.
So, let us face it, Tinubu has failed to demonstrate any serious commitment to political restructuring. First, he rejected the Jonathan administration’s national conference and its report and, second, over six and a half years of his party being in power, he has maintained inordinate silence on Buhari’s betrayal of their party’s unambiguous constitutional and manifesto commitments on political restructuring.
Yet, despite Tinubu’s two-facedness on Yoruba’s restructuring demand, his self-serving SWAGA minions are falsely juxtaposing his putative presidential ambition with the South-West agenda and bouncing Yoruba leaders and traditional rulers into embracing the deception.
In April, during the SWAGA group’s visit to Chief Reuben Fasoranti, former Afenifere leader, the elder statesman said: “When he (Tinubu) gets there, he will do all we want”. He added that, with Tinubu as president, Afenifere’s prayers for Nigeria would be answered, “particularly on the issue of restructuring and federalism”. The Tribune titled the story thus: “Nigeria will be restructured if Tinubu is elected President in 2023 – Fasoranti” (Tribune, April 6, 2021). But really? Of course, that’s utterly fanciful!
Tinubu and his supporters are lapping up the seeming endorsement by some Yoruba leaders and traditional leaders. They are not dissociating themselves from the expectations about restructuring bya Tinubu presidency. As yet, Tinubu himself has said nothing about 2023. But if he ran and became president, he would not do what Afenifere wants; he once split the socio-political group to serve his political ends. And he will not restructure Nigeria.
But that would leave the Yoruba in a moral quagmire. Truth is, the Yoruba will never give up on restructuring. Yet, if another Yoruba becomes president in 2023 and fails to restructure Nigeria, the South-West will lose the moral authority to complain about power imbalance after 2031. The rest of the country will, rightly, say: “What’s your problem. You ruled Nigeria for sixteen years since 1999 and you’re still complaining of imbalance, what imbalance?”
Truth be told, the Yoruba are better off joining hands with others to fight for restructuring than targeting the presidency in 2023. They will be utterly misguided to put their hopes in Tinubu. His SWAGA ’23 campaign is self-serving. It’s not the South-West agenda!
