Still on Russia and Ukraine

The coverage of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine by the English-speaking media has been very interesting and without a sense of either irony or shame. On this thermobaric bombs thing for example, it is just very interesting the way the Western media manipulates its viewers into near hysteria and makes us believe that they are “good guys” all the time. Fact check: Western nations have used thermobaric weapons before.

For the record, thermobaric weapons have been around for a long time. They were first used during World War 2 by the Germans. The Americans were the next to use them (the BLU-72) during the Vietnam War. Then the Russians used them during their invasion of Afghanistan (the version they used is called the TOS-1). Then the Americans again used them during Operation Desert Storm. Then the Russians used them in Chechnya. The Brits used them in Helmand province of Afghanistan, as did the Americans (who had made them laser guided by that time).

This debate ended when a compromise solution was offered that allowed them to keep using those weapons: they redefined thermobaric weapons as ‘enhanced blast missiles.’

Thermobaric weapons, which sometimes is called ‘vacuum’ weapons, depending on who you are listening to, have been roundly condemned by human rights groups. In 2008, the Times of London reported that “the weapons are so controversial that the Ministry of Defence’s weapons and legal experts spent 18 months debating whether British troops could use them without breaking international law.”

This debate ended when a compromise solution was offered that allowed them to keep using those weapons: they redefined thermobaric weapons as ‘enhanced blast missiles.’ Given that new nomenclature, British drones went ahead to fire ‘enhanced blast missiles’ in Syria in 2018, an event which an FoI disclosure lamented was “accidental.”

I saw the CNN report, and Clarissa Ward said the Russians had deployed them into Ukraine, but she stopped just short of saying that they had been used. It’s the Ukrainian ambassador to the US who now told Reuters that they had been used, but he is the single source of that information (as of the time of writing this).

Again, before it is misconstrued like I am supporting Vladimir Putin, I am not. He is as bad as the next man, and if there is any justice in the world, he should be in the dock next to George W Bush at the International Criminal Court, but we know that that will not happen. Heck, when the ICC tried to investigate American soldiers for war crimes in Iraq, the Americans revoked the visas of all the ICC judges involved in the investigation and prevented them from travelling to the US. Imagine if it was another great power (Russia or China) that had done that? We would not hear the end of it.

Of course, a weak country like Nigeria would not dare to defy the ICC so brazenly, and for me this is the rub.

I am wary of things going the usual way and people from our side of the world simply being pawns in great power games.

Let’s put it this way: in 2020, Nigeria imported $2.06 billion worth of wheat (4.9 million tons). Of this, a full $207 million (10.05%) was from Russia alone. In this year, our domestic wheat production is actually forecast to fall by 8 percent to 55,000 tons this year. This means that it’s a huge hole we have to fill, and antagonising our major external source is silly to say the least. We have to start looking out for ourselves as a people.

My hope is that my generation, and Nigeria is between eight and 16 years from someone in my age range becoming a national leader, will learn these things and become more cynical about the way we deal with the great powers, namely the US, the EU, Russia and China.

Cynicism, or more accurately, political realism, is the best prism with which to push these things, and here is the thing: one rule of politics, whether it’s Nigeria’s petty politics, or international geopolitics, is that people court those they think are not in their camp come-what-may. A politician, or a great power nation-state, has finite resources to allocate to their underlings. They will prioritise those who they allocate such resources to, and those whom they are trying to court to do their bidding will naturally get a bigger bite than those who they believe will be in their corner no matter what.

In the West, there have been moves to sanction India for abstaining in the resolution condemning Russia, and there has been condemnation of South Africa and Senegal as well. But after throwing their toys out of the pram over their abstentions, when things calm down, and they will, the West are going to court South Africa, Senegal and India. They won’t reward us for being loyal followers.